Market Outlook #16

Market Outlook #16 (16th December 2018)

Hello, and welcome to the sixteenth instalment of Market Outlook, and the final blog post for 2018. As of tomorrow, I will be taking the remainder of the year off. That being said, I’ve got a lot of interesting material planned for the New Year, including more Coin Report and Market Outlook posts, but also some one-off ideas, like a lengthy discussion of ‘risk’ and all that comes with it; an article on passive income in the cryptosphere and its numerous pitfalls; and a post detailing my thoughts on why the price paid is the most important part of any trade or investment, particularly in this space.

But, for today, I will be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as well as taking a look at how beautifully Waves has played out. I hope you enjoy the read!

Bitcoin:

Price: $3308

Market Cap: $57.645bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that a failure to breakout above the $3750 resistance would likely send price towards $3200. From the 4H chart, we can see that a double top formed at this resistance level, and price has since remained below the short-term trendline resistance, dumping below the local low from last week. Zooming out to the Weekly, we can see that price is in a precarious position, sitting just above a swing-low that has been untouched for over a year at ~$3000. There is a high likelihood that we, at least momentarily, sweep those lows before forming any significant reversal, especially considering the orderblock that lies below it. However, volume has been decreasing as new lows are made, implying that sell pressure is decreasing and that a bottom is likely nearby…


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $39.82 (0.01218 BTC)

Market Cap: $662.031mn (202,881 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has reached an interesting spot against the Dollar this past week, finally dipping into the weekly bullish orderblock and trading below the equilibrium (50%) point of the range that formed back in summer 2017. When price last traded in this area, it was shortly followed by an injection of heavy volume and significant upwards momentum. Looking at XMR/BTC, the Weekly has broken below trendline support for the first time in two years, sweeping below the low that formed late in August, into a bullish orderblock. This breakdown from such a significant area of support is not great for bulls… but it could be price manipulation to coax retail holders into capitulation. We’ll see what the case is over the next week or two; if price can catch a bounce on high volume and break above the trendline resistance and back above the trendline support, this was likely a false breakout; if price fails to find support here, it is quite likely that we see 0.01 BTC broken.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $86.64 (0.02655 BTC)

Market Cap: $8.995bn (2,757,251 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD continues to experience decreasing volume alongside its decreasing prices, with peak sell pressure occuring weeks ago. The 4H chart shows a breakout above short-term trendline resistance, but the equal lows make me wary. I wouldn’t get too hopeful for a reversal until the Daily closes above $100. ETH/BTC, however, is in a great area for buyers, trading at an area of signficant prior resistance turned support. Price is still trading below trendline resistance, but a period of high volume during the dump to 0.0245 BTC indicates that this may have been the bottom against Bitcoin. Short-term support has formed at 0.0258 BTC, but it will take a higher time-frame close above 0.028 BTC before this could be confirmed as a bottom.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $2.47 (75502 satoshis)

Market Cap: $246.898mn (75,502 BTC)

Thoughts: I first mentioned Waves in this Market Outlook series in the 10th instalment, when it formed a double bottom below 25k satoshis. Following this, I mentioned it a couple of weeks later, in the ‘Altcoin Special‘ post. Prices then bounced from the low-volume selloff, breaking out of the downtrend on high volume. In the 14th Market Outlook, prices were above 35k satoshis, and we have since seen a continuation of the reversal, with a steep increase over the past week. Waves is now trading above 75k satoshis, over 3x where it was in that first post, in the depths of a macro bear market. Opportunities are everywhere for further price-action such as this to follow. Selling any positions in Waves here is probably a wise idea, given the heavy resistance ahead.

That concludes this sixteenth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. See you in the New Year!


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Market Outlook #14

Market Outlook #14 (2nd December 2018)

Welcome to the fourteenth Market Outlook. In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as usual, as well as taking a look at Waves. I hope you enjoy the read!

Bitcoin:

Price: $4166.42

Market Cap: $72.51bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I expected a relief rally to $4200. This past week has seen the recent Bitcoin capitulation come to a momentary pause. Price found a bottom above $3600, and has since formed a short-term range between that bottom and $4450. The Daily chart shows that we have seen the most volume on Bitfinex since February, with price also refusing to close inside the Daily bullish orderblock. Further, looking back at the prior two weeks of price-action, there is a an area of illiquid movement between $5-5.4k; an upside breakout from this range would lead to that inefficiency being filled in, I would imagine. Now, looking at the 4H chart, we can see that price has broken above the short-term trendline resistance on significant volume. The range of price-action now has several swing-highs and swing-lows yet untouched, thus providing no clear indication of direction. The decreasing volume recently would suggest that the short-term bullish momentum may soon end and price may dip below $3940 back into the orderblock. However, whilst price remains above this level, I would expect the multitude of untouched swing-highs above $4450 to be the next point-of-interest.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $59.83 (0.01437 BTC)

Market Cap: $994.14mn (238,793 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero’s Daily charts against both Bitcoin and the Dollar are rather simple and telling. Looking at XMR/USD, price has traded into an area of prior resistance from last summer, with it looking as though it has turned support. To deal with the bearish scenario firstly, a break of the low that has formed at $59 would see price swiftly reach for support at ~$46. That being said, if this current low can hold, I can see a move back towards ~$83 to test the support now turned resistance. The XMR/BTC Daily chart reinforces this potential footpath for price, as we can see price has traded into a Daily bullish orderblock and is currently failing to close above short-term trendline resistance. A close above this resistance on significant volume would indicate that the bottom is in. Further confirmation of this would come with a Daily close above the pivot area. However, if price continues to trade below this trendline, the lows at 0.013 BTC would be in play. I’m sure we’ll find out soon enough…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $117.28 (0.0281 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.144bn (2,917,195 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD on the Daily time-frame has one particular point-of-interest from the past couple of weeks: a period of the highest-ever traded volume on Bitfinex. Such significant volume is usually indicative of the height (or depth) of capitulation; and thus the level of prior resistance at ~$100 from May 2017 seems to have become a short-term bottom, at the very least. Looking at ETH/BTC on the 4H chart, it does seem as though this theory holds true. Volume has been decreasing for the past two weeks despite price dropping into the 4H bullish orderblock. I would expect a bounce soon and an attempt at closing the 4H above 0.0293 BTC – this would confirm a short-term bullish reversal.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.51 (36246 satoshis)

Market Cap: $150.9mn (36,246 BTC)

Thoughts: Waves is a beautiful sight to behold. The dowtrend on near-zero volume culminated in a spring and breakout on high volume. Price has since continued to climb and is making its way towards short-term resistance at ~41k satoshis. A close on the Daily above this level would open up further upside towards the significant support turned resistance at 50k satoshis. A reversal is certainly well underway…

I hope this fourteenth Market Outlook has proved somewhat useful. Feel free to leave any questions in the Comments section and I’ll get back to you as best I can.


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Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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Market Outlook #10

Market Outlook #10 (11th November 2018)

Hello, hello. Today marks the 10th consecutive week of publishing these Market Outlook posts, and, given that milestone, I’ve decided to write up a stonker. In the following post, I will take a look at the past week’s movement in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as usual, but will follow those up with analysis of five altcoins that have never been discussed within this series of posts. Now, it’s important to stress that the analysis is exclusively technical. That being said, the alts I’ve selected are primarily largecaps, and thus they trade with ample volume and liquidity to assure the validity of the analysis (unlike lowcaps or microcaps with equivalent charts that are more prone to deviating from what makes sense). Long story short, there’s a lot of opportunity floating around at present, and the alts I’ll be looking at in this report are Qtum, Gifto, Waves, Komodo and Wings. As you’ll see, they share many technical parallels, though I can’t vouch for such equivalence in fundamental strength.

Anyways, on with the show.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6389.16

Market Cap: $110.982bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I spoke about the low-volume pullback and trendline retest being textbook, anticipating a a bounce this past week. We got the bounce but price is still struggling to reclaim the ~$6550 level, which is critical in shifting short-term market structure from its present chop to a bullish state. The key support remains around $6300, and that level has held despite the more recent pullback from the short-term resistance. We have also formed a higher swing-low, which should serve to drive price above that significant pivot level. The Daily chart looks as though a reversal is imminent – perhaps in December we’ll see that resistance at $8500 tested with the launch of Bakkt acting as a catalyst. The overall picture remains positive with key support intact.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $103.35 (0.0162 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.711bn (268,508 BTC)

Thoughts: The Daily XMR/BTC chart is very interesting, as we managed to close above the recent swing-high at 0.017 BTC on rising volume, but swiftly lost all ground and returned to the short-term range. Volume on the pullback, however, has been decreasing with each day, with price now trading inside a bullish orderblock above resistance turned support at the breakout level of 0.0155 BTC. This is a critical turning point. The volume action implies that we should form a higher-low around here and make another attempt at breaking out of the range, and, ideally, maintaining the breakout level.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $211.75 (0.033 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.838bn (3,426,123 BTC)

Thoughts: Last week, I mentioned that the unusually low volatility would likely be followed by dynamic movement. Ethereum has led the charge regarding price-action this past week, with an explosive breakout from the range on significant volume. This has occured against the Dollar and against Bitcoin, and both breakout levels have held firm. The recent pullback on ETH/USD has been on near-zero volume, and a series of higher-highs and higher-lows have been formed, confirming bullish market structure. Given that the breakout level continues to hold, I’d expect another 10-15% move up over the next couple of weeks.


Qtum:

QTUM/USD

QTUM/BTC

Price: $3.89 (60978 satoshis)

Market Cap: $345.987mn (54,288 BTC)

Thoughts: I want to preface this section by stating that I have absolutely no idea what Qtum is. Now that that’s out of the way, behold the beautiful chart and the immense upside potential on a serious largecap. Rarely do you see the possibility of a 2000% return on a $345mn altcoin, but that is exactly what is presented to us here. A clearly defined accumulation range is apparent on the QTUM/USD chart, with one 24-hour period trading almost $10mn-worth of Qtum. Further, QTUM/BTC has been range-bound for 10 weeks, and is currently trading inside the bullish orderblock that preceded its insane bull cycle in December 2017. Volume has been rising for each of the past three months, and range resistance and support continue to be respected. Bullish.


Gifto:

GTO/USD

GTO/BTC

Price: $0.06 (992 satoshis)

Market Cap: $33.617mn (5,274 BTC)

Thoughts: Similarly to Qtum, but on a smaller scale, Gifto is also experiencing a large amount of volume within a tight price range. Where QTUM traded 2.69% of its circulating supply in one day, Gifto traded almost 9%, and is currently priced only ~20% above its all-time low. There are clear levels of resistance to potentially set sells at should a reversal come, and there is over 1500% of growth to occur before the USD all-time high gets broken. Again, not a clue what Gifto is, but if it even has remotely decent fundamentals, this looks like a solid buy.


Waves:

WAVES/USD

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.75 (27328 satoshis)

Market Cap: $175.377mn (27,328 BTC)

Thoughts: Now, a more familiar altcoin: Waves. Waves is currently trading at clear long-term support against the Dollar, with very little support beneath. Should price fall and close below $1.60, it would make sense to exit any position. But, for now, that level continues to hold strong. WAVES/BTC is currently experiencing a near-zero volume pullback towards short-term support around 24000 satoshis. That’s only ~10% below current prices, which is minor downside risk.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $1.17 (18423 satoshis)

Market Cap: $129.882mn (20,376 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo is in a really promising area, current trading at the lowest price that preceded the January highs. KMD/BTC has formed a range between 14k-22k satoshis, and experienced ~$10.4mn worth of supply exchanging hands within a few days, with price respecting range resistance. Price has since returned to the equilibrium of the range on low volume.


Wings:

WINGS/BTC

Price: $0.19 (3000 satoshis)

Market Cap: $17.148mn (2,691 BTC)

Thoughts: Wings is another familiar altcoin, and one that is exhibiting perfect price-action. Firstly, price formed a 10-week range, during which volume was constant. Then price broke out of the range on very high volume, with 13.75% of the circulating supply being trading during the breakout. Price then remained above the breakout level, formed a lower swing-high, and then retested the the former resistance now turned support. This recent retest saw price bounce hard on even higher volume, with 24.3% of circulating supply traded, and a clear series of higher-lows and higher-highs have formed. Most bullish.

That concludes the milestone 10th Market Outlook. I think this has been an eye-opening one for myself regarding current opportunities amongst largecaps, as I tend to stick to midcaps and lowcaps. I hope you’ve found some value in it, too! Let me know what you think.


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