Market Outlook #22

Market Outlook #22 (10th February 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 22nd Market Outlook.

We’ve finally seen some expansive price-action after weeks of consolidation, but we certainly aren’t out of the woods yet. That being said, much of what was expected in last week’s Market Outlook has played out, and we have a number of higher timeframe bullish reversals forming.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus I’ll provide an update on the opportunity spotted in Litecoin from last week. I’ll conclude by taking a look at Vertcoin and the interesting movements its seen over the past few days.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3655

Market Cap: $64.078bn

Thoughts: Last week, I mentioned that the progressively decreasing volume on the series of trendline breaks was likely a sign that sellers were running out of steam, but that we’d need to see a high volume breakout and a higher timeframe close above $3600 to confirm a bullish reversal. We got exactly that.

Looking at the Weekly, we haven’t seen price close at a higher-high in well over a year. As such, a Weekly close above the prior swing-high ~$4400 would confirm this reversal on the higher timeframes and open up the doors to a retest of the $6k-level – but that is a long way away…

On the Hourly, we do appear to be bull-flagging, athough I place little faith in patterns on lower timeframes. Either way, I expect a period of consolidation (or perhaps even a small dip) prior to the $3800 being retested. A 4H close above this level would be very bullish for short-term price-action.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $117.46 (0.03219 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.309bn (3,373,755 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD is trailing very closely beneath the trendline resistance from April 2018. Even more significantly, we have yet to reclaim the ~$170-level; an area of prior support turned key resistance.

That being said, the 4H chart against the Dollar indicates, much like in Bitcoin, that sellers are exhausted in this area, with a high-volume breakout occuring a couple of days ago. This breakout pushed price back above the key support at $116 that was lost only a couple of weeks ago. The next area of resistance is at $135, and a breakout above here would open the doors for new local highs above $170 – and with it, reclamation of a very significant level on the Weekly.

ETH/BTC shows near-perfect symmetry in its price-action to its Dollar pair, although with the 200MA currently capping price. Numerous short-term levels of support were reclaimed after a high-volume spike sent price above 0.0323 BTC. I’m expecting a period of consolidation before further upwards momentum.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.04 (0.01315 BTC)

Market Cap: $806.287mn (220,834 BTC)

Thoughts: As has been the case for the past couple of months, Monero is lagging behind, taking things at its own leisurely pace. As such, XMR/BTC remains inside a range and there is nothing new to say about it. Interestingly, however, XMR/USD saw price close the Daily above range resistance at $47.50. I would expect the next move to be a breakout above the range in XMR/BTC, sending price against the Dollar towards that $57 resistance.


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

LTC/BTC

Price: $43.45 (0.0119 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.624bn (718,934 BTC)

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I highlighted the opportunity presenting itself in Litecoin. This past week, we saw that hypothesis confirmed, with an explosive breakout above support turned resistance at 0.01 BTC. This level, as mentioned in the previous post, has usually been the catalyst for historical bull cycles.

Against the Dollar, Litecoin has broken above short-term resistance, now turned support, at $42. It is currently lingering beneath its 200-day MA and above trendline resistance; a likely area for consolidation before further expansion.

I expect 0.0155 BTC to be the next level of resistance, and I would imagine we reach it sooner rather than later…


Vertcoin:

VTC/USD

VTC/BTC

Price: $0.27 (7418 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.050mn (3,570 BTC)

Thoughts: Much like Litecoin last week, Vertcoin is also presenting a high-reward, low-risk opportunity. Against the Dollar, price has been range-bound for the past few months, with range support having formed at the Weekly close of the peak of the previous bull cycle (around $0.20). Volume is also gradually rising…

VTC/BTC on the Weekly shows us that price is currently trading inside the long-term accumulation range. From within this range, price has seen 3 or 4 previous bull cycles.

On the Daily, we can see that the 200MA has price capped at present, despite the recent spike in price and volume. The signs of interest are all there, and this is occuring in confluence with historically-significant prices…

 

That concludes this 22nd Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. As ever, feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


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Market Outlook #9

Market Outlook #9 (4th November 2018)

Today’s Market Outlook sees us return to some short-term analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, followed by a couple of opportunities I’ve spotted in Vertcoin and Shield. In last week’s Market Outlook, I omitted analysis of ‘the usual three’ in place of a handful of altcoins, as market conditions were unusually stable. I can’t say things have gotten much more exciting since, but there are a few points-of-interest to discuss. The exciting price-and-volume-action seems to be occuring more frequently amongst lowcaps and midcaps at present, and, as such, I believe there is a lot to look forward to this winter in that sector of the market. Vertcoin and Shield are just two of the plethora of opportunities I’m seeing on a daily basis.

Anyway, on with the show:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6411

Market Cap: $111.288bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin’s breakout from the long-term trendline resistance has been followed by a low-volume pullback and trendline retest. This is textbook. In doing so, it has receded into the 4H bullish orderblock that led to the initial breakout, and has since formed short-term trendline resistance which it is battling with at present. A break and close on theĀ 4H above $6500 would shift short-term market structure to bullish from its present bearish state.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $106.57 (0.0167 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.763bn (276,924 BTC)

Thoughts: XMR/USD, as anticipated in Market Outlook #6, has formed a new range with resistance at prior support of $111. Following Bitcoin, it has since moved back into the 4H orderblock and bounced on gradually increasing volume. At present, we are still very much seeing chop, and the $111 level would need to be reclaimed in order for things to begin looking bullish again. Switching to XMR/BTC, the most important level (0.016 BTC) continues to hold strong, with a new range having formed with it as support and 0.017 BTC as range resistance. As long as that original breakout level holds, market structure is bullish.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $200.73 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $20.673bn (3,246,326 BTC)

Thoughts: Lots of clean market structure on ETH/USD. Liquidity has been cleared below and above short-term swing-lows and highs, respectively, and price is currently grappling with a significant level of resistance turned support and once again turned resistance at ~$203. All of this also just happens to be occuring inside a 4H bullish orderblock. ETH/BTC is even more interesting, despite what seems on the surface to be a boring chart. All I needed to highlight here was the longest and tightest range of price-action in recent history. ETH/BTC has been stuck between 0.0306 BTC and 0.032 BTC for over 3 weeks; a range of around 4.5%. Extended periods of low volatility are most often followed by extreme volatility…


Vertcoin:

Price: $0.66 (10454 satoshis)

Market Cap: $31.097mn (4,883 BTC)

Thoughts: Vertcoin is among the oldest cryptocurrencies to exist. As I discuss in my book, it was the first coin I ever invested my own money into back in February 2014. It has since experienced numerous market cycles, and I believe we are on the cusp of a new one. Price has dropped off from its winter 2017 highs back to the low of August 2017. A tight range has formed, now lasting 12 straight weeks. Volume is low, but the duration of the range does somewhat make up for this (micro-buying over an extended period of time is one form of accumulation that differs from the high-volume, single-day accumulation seen in other alts recently, like SALT). I doubt there’s been a better reward-to-risk opportunity to buy Vertcoin in a very long time.


Shield:

Price: $0.005 (88 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.863mn (450 BTC)

Thoughts: The parallels between the Vertcoin chart and this Shield chart are overt, as are the parallels in much of the altcoin market at the moment. Shield is a lower-midcap privacy coin that I wrote about in my book; more specifically, I talked about how I liked its consistency in meeting development deadlines and the specificity of its roadmap. It was, however, too expensive at the time to buy. Shield has fallen around 96% from its January highs, back to levels only traded during the initial months post-launch. It has formed a very tight range lasting almost 2 months despite its low liquidity, and is currently trading abbove its 6-month trendline resistance. As I say, Shield has very low liquidity, and this is likely due to its largest exchange listing being CoinExchange, but I think micro-buying at these levels is a good approach for anyone wanting to enter a position for the next bull cycle; a cycle that presents a near-30x opportunity in BTC.

That concludes the ninth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. As ever, feel free to leave any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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