Market Outlook #38

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #38 (3rd June 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 38th Market Outlook, albeit a day late.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, as well as providing updates on Tron and Cardano.

Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

4H:

Price: $8550

Market Cap: $151.815bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that I expect price to clear the ‘double top’ at ~$8400, given that such clean resistance often provides fuel for further upwards momentum.

This past week, price did exactly that, climbing above short-term resistance to new highs of $9100, where it topped out and rejected hard, dumping back below $8000 briefly. However, as can be seen on the Daily chart, price refused to close below this level, instead respecting it as a new area of prior resistance turned support. Now, we can also see that the parabolic advance is still just about in play, and until we get a clean break below trendline support on significant volume, I anticipate new highs later this week.

That being said, it is quite clear that such an advance cannot be sustained indefinitely, and it does appear that Bitcoin is losing steam on this particular rally, indicated by higher prices but declining RSI and volume. If we do break below that trendline support, I expect $8000 will be retested, and a close below that level would turn market structure bearish on the Daily timeframe. This would likely lead to a move back towards ~$7500.

Now, looking at the 4H chart, we can see that the move up to $9100, followed by the move to ~$8k, broke market structure on this timeframe. However, price recovered well, climbing back above $8500 and forming a lower high around $8800. I’m watching for a clean break of this lower high to indicate new highs on the way, or a break below $8300 to confirm a retest of $8000 support.

Bullish until proven otherwise, in short.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

4H:

ETHUSD4H

ETH/BTC

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

1H:

ETHBTC1H

Price: $264.97 (0.0309 BTC)

Market Cap: $28.175bn (3,300,678 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum did precisely what was expected of it last week, culminating in a huge market-wide shakeout before last weekend. Looking first at ETH/USD, however, we can see that price broke out of its bullish pennant on decent volume, finding new highs at $289, before it rejected and found support at $235; a huge move that concluded with the 4H closing above $250 and recovering prior resistance turned support at $260.

Now, looking at the Daily chart for ETH/BTC, we can see exactly where the volatility came in last week, sending prices down into the Daily Breaker, just below 0.03 BTC; a level I mentioned must hold for price-action to remain bullish. This level held firm, and price looks to be forming an extended swing-low preceding the next leg up. The 1H depicts trendline resistance that is currently holding price down, but I expect we shall see ETH/BTC make a move above 0.032 BTC over the coming days, turning short-term market structure bullish and beginning a new leg up.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $93.96 (0.01102 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.599bn (187,412 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero remains in consolidation, having broken above trendline resistance and formed a higher low at 0.0105 BTC upon retesting this resistance as support. As mentioned last week, we are watching for a Daily close above 0.012 BTC on significant volume as a signal for the cyclical bottom being in.


Tron:

TRX/BTC

Daily:

TRXBTCDaily

4H:

TRXBTC4H

Price: $0.037 (435 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.47bn (289,825 BTC)

Thoughts: Tron continues to look bullish and my margin long positions are paying off. From the Daily chart, we can see that price broke out above 4-month trendline resistance last week, with volume continuing to rise. However, price rejected at the 360-day moving average, but remains firmly above prior resistance turned support at 400 satoshis. In fact, Tron seems to have begun its own parabolic advance on the Daily timeframe, with the rally becoming steeper over the past few days.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see levels of resistance becoming support on the ascent, and I have marked out 500 satoshis as my target for this next leg.


Cardano:

ADA/BTC

Daily:

ADABTCDaily

Price: $0.093 (1094 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.418bn (283,616 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally, we come to Cardano, and there is a beautifully clean pattern playing out for those who enjoy trading patterns. We can see that ADA broke above trendline resistance a couple of weeks ago on good volume, and retraced to form a higher low. This rounded, protracted higher low is forming the Eve to early May’s Adam, with 1220 satoshis as the neckline for a breakout. There is also confluence of the 200-day moving average at this level, and, as such, a breakout above this level will likely be followed by dynamic expansion towards the 360-day moving average.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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Market Outlook #37

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #37 (26th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 37th Market Outlook.

After several dynamic weeks, this past week has been somewhat subdued, with most coins, including Bitcoin, in consolidation. That said, many alts are painting a series of higher-lows and higher-highs after finding local bottoms recently, and that is promising.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus taking a look at opportunities in Tron and BitTube.

Bitcoin:

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

1H:

BTCUSD1H

Price: $8003

Market Cap: $141.846bn

Thoughts: So, this week has been rather relaxed relative to the prior few. Rather than the expected bullish continuation above the $8400 ‘double top’, as can be seen in the Daily chart, we got a period of consolidation and a short-term range being formed. However, looking at the Daily, we can still see the intact parabola with old resistance levels becoming new support. Volume has started to decline and next week will certainly bring a breakout to one side or the other. But to which side? Looking at that clear double top at $8400, I would be very surprised if we didn’t move through that to trap shorts before getting any sort of correction…

Looking now at the 1H chart, we can see the range that’s been marked out, with $8400 acting as range resistance and $7600 acting as range support for the past week. Within this larger range, we are also trading inside a short-term range between $7920 and $8110. I am watching for a breakout on significant volume above or below this short-term range to determine whether we will gun for the $8400 ‘double top’ or break down and move back towards $7600 and likely lower. Bias remains bullish until proven otherwise.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

4H:

ETHBTC4H

Price: $250 (0.03121 BTC)

Market Cap: $26.555bn (3,320,056 BTC)

Thoughts: As expected in last week’s post, we did see a retrace on ETH/BTC towards the reclaimed support at 0.0306 BTC, with price printing somewhat of a bull-flag for those who trade patterns. Looking at the Daily chart, I have depicted the trajectory I expect Ethereum to take over the coming weeks, with a possibility for one last drop down into support at 0.0305 BTC before bullish continuation towards trendline resistance.

From the 4H, we can see the local high printed at 0.0348 BTC and the subsequent move back into support. The 4H is currently rejecting a close below 0.031 BTC, but we need to see a higher-high made above 0.0327 BTC before a bullish continuation is on the cards. Volume has been declining on this pullback, which is positive for bulls. I expect we’ll get that higher-high next week.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Daily:

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $86.41 (0.0108 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.469bn (183,723 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero remains capped by significant support turned resistance at 0.0116 BTC, following a weak breakout above short-term trendline resistance. A bullish reversal will only be confirmed once that support is reclaimed on solid volume, which I believe will occur when Ethereum leads the charge. Beyond that, a reclamation of the 200-day moving average would mark the beginning of a new bull cycle to me, as this has capped price since the beginning of the bear market.


Tron:

TRX/BTC

Weekly:

TRXBTCWeekly

Daily:

TRXBTCDaily

4H:

TRX4H

Price: $0.029 (368 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.961bn (245,270 BTC)

Thoughts: Whilst there are many speculators that decline to touch Tron, much like they decline to go near Ripple, I simply look at profitable opportunities, and Tron looks very bullish.

Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see that price is currently trading inside an historical accumulation zone; one that has led to two bull cycles in the past. As such, this is likely a rewarding area for buyers.

Moving onto the Daily chart, price looks to have formed a potential cyclical bottom at 310 satoshis, though is currently capped by trendline resistance and horizontal resistance at 400 satoshis. A Daily close above both of these areas of resistance would be a clear mark of a new cycle beginning, in my opinion, and the next area of interest would be 530 satoshis.

Finally, from the 4H chart, we can see that price has broken out of a bullish pennant on significant volume, making a move towards that level of support turned resistance around 400 satoshis.

All I’m saying is that it looks like a low-risk, high-reward trade to me…


BitTube:

TUBE/BTC

Daily:

TUBEBTCDaily

Price: $0.048 (606 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.091mn (887 BTC)

Thoughts: I figured I’d take a look at a smaller coin, given that the past couple of Market Outlook posts have been focused on the larger ones. BitTube is one that looks promising to me at current prices, as, much like Tron, it is in an area of historical accumulation, preceding bull cycles. Further, price has clearly broken above trendline resistance on good volume and is currently retesting it as support. Entries here have between 15-20% of downside risk, with possible upside of 200-300%. It’s a no-brainer, really.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.