Market Outlook #8

Market Outlook #8 (28th October 2018)

Well, it seems the big three that I would usually cover in these posts took the week off. Bitcoin has had one of its least volatile weeks in recent history, and Monero and Ethereum followed suit. So, to prevent today’s Market Outlook from being an utter waste of time, I have decided to make this one an Altcoin Special. I’ll be covering 4 altcoins, from lowcaps to largecaps, all of which seem to me to present huge upside opportunity at current prices. I’ll begin with Stratis, before covering Ubiq and Synereo, and finally a special treat that came onto my radar this week: Musicoin. In last week’s Market Outlook, I talked about the massive opportunity presented by FoldingCoin, and I think Musicoin might actually be an even better buy. But we’ll get onto that later…

First, Stratis:

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.64 (25318 satoshis)

Market Cap: $162mn (25,082 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis announced this past week that the project is now a Silver Partner of Microsoft. This, naturally, led to a huge buy-up, in which 5% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours on Binance alone (~$8mn). Now, this only served to reinforce my thoughts on Stratis, and I have been buying since I first wrote about the coin in Market Outlook #1, almost two months ago. Since then, price has remained within its tight range against USD and BTC, and a near-3-month accumulation range is undoubtedly in play. I believe this past week’s buy-up was merely a precursor to an imminent reversal; a reversal that would be confirmed if price can close above the major support turned resistance around $3 (which is still almost 100% away, currently). There’s a long way to go, for sure, but the signals keep appearing.


Ubiq:

Price: $0.53 (8188 satoshis)

Market Cap: $22.542mn (3,489 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq had a very strange moment in its price-history back in April, when 12% of its supply was bought up, but macro sentiment and the pervading bear market seemed to win the fight, and price followed the rest of the market in an extended sell-off. However, even the swiftest of glances at the volume profile on the chart can tell us that there has been almost zero volume on the decline of the past few months, and capitulation seems to have occured on the one steep day of decline towards the end of August.

Since that point, price has consolidated above the 15-month trendline resistance, finding support – strangely enough – at the opening price of Ubiq’s listing on Bittrex. Funny how these things work out, isn’t it? Small volume spikes are beginning to appear within this range, and I believe buys here will be rewarded before the end of the year.


Synereo:

AMP/USD

AMP/BTC

Price: $0.046 (718 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.65mn (723 BTC)

Thoughts: Synereo is in a very interesting position at the moment. AMP/BTC has seen three consecutive market cycles with lower and lower peaks, forming a trendline resistance that spans two years. Price is also trading a little above its all-time low, and the endpoint of the trendline resistance has arrived. Poloniex delisting AMP sent it down below a short-term level of support, but, in the past week, a sign of renewed interest appeared: 9% of the circulating supply was traded last week (around $420k). That’s a lot of money to throw at a lower-midcap at such a pivotal point in its price-history.

A quick look at AMP/USD also indicates that prices are back within their long-term accumulation range; prices that have been rewarded without fail since Synereo’s inception. Reward-to-risk here is huge, as one could quite easily have a soft stop at a daily close below 500 satoshis (~30%), or you could use a fixed-risk approach like I tend to for lowcaps and midcaps. Comparing the two charts, peaks in AMP/USD have gotten progressively higher whilst the inverse has occured against BTC. I would imagine that, whenever the next cycle occurs, this may rebalance.


Musicoin:

Price: $0.004 (57 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.159mn (646 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally we come to what I feel is the highest reward-to-risk opportunity I’ve seen in a while; or at least one of a handful. There is very little I need to paint on the chart except that over a third of the supply was traded in the past two weeks, with 20% being traded a few days ago. This amounts to around $1.7mn of MUSIC that exchanged hands recently. Couple this with the fact that price is trading ~10% above its all-time low, and has been holding that level for 10 weeks now, and you have a strong case for buying.

There is one weakness that I must point out, however, and that is the constant supply emission. Roughly 1.6mn MUSIC come into existence daily, or ~580mn a year. This equals to an annual inflation rate of a little over 50%. Now, this is by no means a deal-breaker, especially given the upside potential, but it’s something to consider. At current prices, daily supply emission is 0.91 BTC or a little under $6,000. To put this in perspective, MUSIC has traded an average of $80,782 daily for the past month. Its average daily volume covers its average daily supply emission by over 1300%.

I hope this eighth Market Outlook has been informative. I rather enjoyed not analysing BTC, ETH and XMR for once. Feel free to post any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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Market Outlook #3

Market Outlook #3 (23rd September 2018)

Hello, and welcome to the third Market Outlook post. For today’s post, we’ll be looking at Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and ALQO. There has been a lot of significant price-action over the past few days, and the first four coins (all of which have featured in this series of posts previously) look a lot different to how they looked in the first Market Outlook. ALQO is a newcomer, and felt like a must-include because of its recent movements.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the updates:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6681

Market Cap: $115.487bn

Thoughts: Contrary to what many seemed to be expecting, price has held firmly above the swing-low formed last week above $6k. Not only have we seen the local low held, but a new local high has been formed, creating bullish market structure for the short-term. This, coupled with last week’s rejection of a close below that oh-so-vital $6k level, is objectively bullish. We all know Bitcoin likes to set things up and then piss all over expectation; but, sparing perhaps one false wick of fuckery, present price-action is indicative of a bullish move above $7500 and a breakout from the trendline resistance sooner rather than later. In all honesty, I believe the worst is over with regards to price. I’m putting myself out there… if I’m wrong and the past two weeks of price-action has occured to lure me into a false sense of security, then so be it. Onwards and upwards, I say.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $122.19 (0.01828 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.007bn (300,388 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero continues to paint a bullish picture across-the-board. We have, however, moved more slowly from last week than I anticipated, and the re-test of ~$150 resistance hasn’t quite arrived yet. A series of higher lows and higher highs are forming on both BTC and USD charts. Short-term resistance at 0.0162BTC and $105, respectively, has become support, and I would expect to see further upside next week.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $242.60 (0.03629 BTC)

Market Cap: $24.779bn (3,707,430 BTC)

Thoughts: Volume is perhaps the most significant aspect of current ETH analysis. Not only has the previous volume all-time high been equalled for ETH/USD on Bitfinex, but, unlike that first occurence, volume has remained heavy. Plus, this time it preceded a breakout of 9-month trendline resistance. ATH volume + long-term trendline breakout is indicative of a bottom. On the 4H, price is consolidating around short-term resistance of $250. We could see a small dip to $225 to re-test the local breakout level, perhaps also testing the short-term uptrend that has formed. The major resistance zone in USD, however, is between $360-400. Turning to ETH/BTC, this past week also saw a trendline breakout, though of a shorter-term dowtrend. However, this breakout has occured within a daily bullish orderblock, and there is very little horizontal resistance between here and 0.053 BTC. On the 4H, we can see local resistance at 0.04 BTC, around 10% north of where price currently sits, with recent resistance forming local support levels. There also appears to be somewhat of an ascending triangle breakout above 0.035 BTC, though it’s a little abstract.


Stratis:

Price: $1.54 (0.000231555 BTC)

Market Cap: $152.974mn (22,930 BTC)

Thoughts: STRAT/BTC remains within the range illustrated in my first Market Outlook post, with bullish market structure being formed on the 4H. Range resistance is around 24k satoshis, and it would take a sustained period of price-action above this level before I believe the 29k-satoshi local top can be tested and broken above. This would be the Disbelief level that would indicate a new market cycle beginning. However, whilst we remain within this range, I’m buying. The closer to 20k satoshis I can get my average entry, the better. It has now been 6 weeks within this range, and I wouldn’t expect too many more range-bound weeks.


ALQO:

Price: $0.20 (2951 satoshis)

Market Cap: $11.25mn (1,664 BTC)

Thoughts: A new coin for the Market Outlook series, and one that I tweeted about earlier in the week. ALQO has surprisingly immaculate market structure for a low-to-mid-cap coin. I won’t get into its fundamentals here, but the chart alone is worthy of at least some consideration. Price has remained below trendline resistance since May, but broke out of said resistance earlier this month, on increasing (though still low) volume. Since then, support-turned-resistance at ~2400 satoshis has once again become a level of support, with a heavy resistance zone ahead between 4000-5000 satoshis. I believe a new market cycle has begun for ALQO; a belief that will be confirmed if price can sustain a move above this resistance zone, into Disbelief. I expect the 2400-satoshi level to become a local bottom.

And that wraps up our third Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it insightful. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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Market Outlook #1

It’s been two months since my last long-form post, and I recently had the idea to create a new page for the website titled Market Outlook. Here, I will post detailed weekly market updates, including Bitcoin and altcoin charts and other thoughts on current sentiment, and the page will operate separately to the main blog. The latter will continue to be updated, although perhaps more sporadically, and will feature a mix of short and long-form posts on recent interviews and podcast appearances; methods of analysis; altcoin research; case-studies like that of the Blackcoin rich-list; AMAs; and other miscellaneous posts that I think will be either entertaining or insightful.

Market Outlook, however, will be a weekly post, every Sunday, that primarily provides chart updates on altcoins I’m currently in or that I’m considering more carefully. This will also be the exclusive place to find my updated charts (aside from the odd one I throw up on Twitter now and then); for those of you that are members of the Telegram channel in which I post a stream of my charts, I will be migrating all future posting to this website. It just makes more sense for me to have everything in one place. Plus, the reason I created the Telegram in the first place was to give myself access to a consistent stream of my own charts, so this is just a better way for me to do that. For the 6,000 of you in there, you’ll still be able to follow the progression of those ideas, if you find them valuable; it’ll just be here rather than there.

Now, on with the show.


Market Outlook #1 (9th September 2018)

So, for this first Market Outlook post, there’s five coins in particular I’m paying attention to. And, uncommonly, all five are high-caps. We’ll begin with BTC, of course, and then I’ll be running through Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and Ardor; four coins I have bought positions in recently.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6390

Market Cap: $110.78bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin is in a very precarious position at the moment. Price is hovering above the long-term support that has been formed around $6000, with numerous double-tops and double-bottoms visible on the daily chart, prime for sweeping. It really could go either way from this point, though I am bullish until we see a weekly close below $5800. I find it quite interesting that the majority of the price-action is taking place within the weekly bullish orderblock. Regardless, we should get our answer as to the direction of the next few months of price-action within a fortnight. Cross your fingers for a breakout to the upside and a weekly close above $7500.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $106.94 (0.0167 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.75bn (274,374 BTC)

Thoughts: I really like the Monero chart (both, USD and BTC). Price seems to have broken out from long-term downtrends across-the-board, and it has held up well given the recent Bitcoin dump. I’d like to see $100 hold and some volume come into play for the next attempt at breaking through that heavy resistance around $140-150. I bought heavily between $85-95. What I don’t want to see is a daily close below $80/0.013 BTC.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $206.35 (0.0323 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.02bn (3,289,652 BTC)

Thoughts: The panic is real regarding ETH, especially amongst crypto-Twitter. That’s usually the perfect signal to begin scaling into longer-term positions. And, having cross-compared the ETH charts, what do you know? Price just so happens to be at long-term support for both, USD and BTC. Also, ETH/BTC is approaching the daily bullish orderblock, from which price previously exploded 422%. Corresponding volume has been relatively significant, though I’d imagine we’ll see a little more blood and volume before a genuine bottom is found. However, I’m scaling into an investment-esque position below $200. What I don’t want to see is a weekly close below 0.022 BTC.


Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.48 (0.00023102 BTC)

Market Cap: $146.96mn (22,873 BTC)

Thoughts: The fact that STRAT has declined 95% from its ATH in BTC, and has recently broken out of its near-nine-month downtrend, is a good sign, in my opinion, that a bottom has been found. A short-term accumulation range also seems to be forming between 20-25k satoshis. However, when cross-compared with STRAT/USD, price seems to have rejected off of prior support now turned resistance, and may be seeking new lows. I have started buying at around 23k satoshis, and will exit my position if we get a daily close below 18k satoshis. Ideally, the market will see some more volume come in at these prices, and the resistance at $2.20 will be reclaimed.


Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.097 (0.00001518 BTC)

Market Cap: $96.88mn (15,160 BTC)

Thoughts: Ardor is rather interesting to me, as it recently experienced ~5% of its circulating supply traded within one day – roughly $9.6mn-worth at the average price during that day. That’s a lot of ARDR and a lot of interest. Price has since experienced a low-volume sell-off, down to the long-term accumulation range. This is a buy signal if ever there was one, and I am buying below 1600 satoshis.

And thus concludes our first Market Outlook.


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