Market Outlook #17

Market Outlook #17 (6th January 2019)

Happy New Year, everyone! Welcome to the 17th Market Outlook, and the first of 2019. Having taken a two-week break over Christmas, it seems I missed a lot of interesting action; in particular, that of Ethereum, as we’ll discuss shortly. Overall, it looks to me like the signals that appeared in  early December in anticipation of short-term reversals are finally bearing fruit across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll cover the past couple of weeks of price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as Stratis and Komodo. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3901

Market Cap: $68.135bn

Thoughts: So, it’s been a good three weeks since the last Market Outlook, in which I suggested that a short-term bottom was nearby. Since then, Bitcoin has moved from ~$3200 to just shy of $4400 and back to around $3700. Price then consolidated after the period of volatility and has now found short-term resistance at $4115 (a level of prior resistance), with higher-lows forming with each test; this, in essence, is an ascending triangle, but volume is currently flat, so we can’t be 100% confident in a breakout to the upside.

That being said, the 1H chart clearly shows a lot of swing highs in the $4100 region that remain unswept, and with price having already cleared the swing-low at $3875, it is likely that we will see continued bullish price-action. However, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a false breakout to the downside, with price looking to trade inside the 1H bullish orderblock at $3825 prior to making any further upwards progress…

Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $153.49 (0.0399 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.943bn (4,162,730 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum has experienced a tremendous reversal, having swept the September lows at ~0.027 BTC early in December. The Weekly shows us that price failed to break the long-term support at ~0.023 BTC, and the reluctance to make new lows has led us to a near-60% rally against Bitcoin. In the process of rallying, ETH has broken through numerous short-term resistance levels on significant volume, with the most important move occuring towards the end of 2018, when price broke above 0.034 BTC, thus breaking the bearish market structure. Price has since held that level, moving up through the resistance at 0.0375 BTC. Volume is declining on the Daily, however, suggesting that this current leg may be overextended. I would expect a period of relief, in which price moves back towards 0.036 BTC; but, make no mistake, it is very much likely we have found the cyclical bottom for ETH/BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.35 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $840.794mn (219,575 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has had a more relaxed few weeks, but also seems to have found a bottom. The Weekly shows us that price remains within the bullish orderblock from October/November 2017, failing to break below the support at 0.0111 BTC despite the extended downtrend. This downtrend has now been broken, as is clear from the Daily, and it looks as though an Adam & Eve bottom is forming with a neckline at ~0.0135 BTC. I expect Monero to take the reigns from Ethereum soon and rally towards the support turned resistance at 0.016 BTC. But first, we need a close above 0.0141 BTC to confirm the bullish market structure.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.07 (27939 satoshis)

Market Cap: $106.086mn (27,705 BTC)

Thoughts: Any regular reader of this blog will know that I am very fond of Stratis, having mentioned it in multiple posts. Around Christmas, Stratis experienced a huge buyup, after spending some time trading below range support. In that period, around a third of Stratis’ circulating supply was traded across all exchanges, and price blasted through the consolidation range, up to a peak around 42500 satoshis. In doing so, it cleared major resistance below 30k satoshis on significant volume. I would expect this area between 27-30k satoshis to become a new level of support. The recent drop-off after the peak has occured on ever-decreasing volume, suggesting that a new swing-low should soon form and, with it, a new leg up should begin.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.77 (19975 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.268mn (22,239 BTC)

Thoughts: It is somewhat rare to spot such an obvious buy as Komodo. Price has been in a large range for a long time, with rising levels of volume and clear accumulation taking place. Range resistance continues to hold at 23k satoshis, but this is one to buy on any movement back towards range support around 16k satoshis. There’s really very little else to say about this one except that the opportunity is made overt by the chart.

That concludes this instalment of Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found something of value here. Please feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


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Market Outlook #8

Market Outlook #8 (28th October 2018)

Well, it seems the big three that I would usually cover in these posts took the week off. Bitcoin has had one of its least volatile weeks in recent history, and Monero and Ethereum followed suit. So, to prevent today’s Market Outlook from being an utter waste of time, I have decided to make this one an Altcoin Special. I’ll be covering 4 altcoins, from lowcaps to largecaps, all of which seem to me to present huge upside opportunity at current prices. I’ll begin with Stratis, before covering Ubiq and Synereo, and finally a special treat that came onto my radar this week: Musicoin. In last week’s Market Outlook, I talked about the massive opportunity presented by FoldingCoin, and I think Musicoin might actually be an even better buy. But we’ll get onto that later…

First, Stratis:

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.64 (25318 satoshis)

Market Cap: $162mn (25,082 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis announced this past week that the project is now a Silver Partner of Microsoft. This, naturally, led to a huge buy-up, in which 5% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours on Binance alone (~$8mn). Now, this only served to reinforce my thoughts on Stratis, and I have been buying since I first wrote about the coin in Market Outlook #1, almost two months ago. Since then, price has remained within its tight range against USD and BTC, and a near-3-month accumulation range is undoubtedly in play. I believe this past week’s buy-up was merely a precursor to an imminent reversal; a reversal that would be confirmed if price can close above the major support turned resistance around $3 (which is still almost 100% away, currently). There’s a long way to go, for sure, but the signals keep appearing.


Ubiq:

Price: $0.53 (8188 satoshis)

Market Cap: $22.542mn (3,489 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq had a very strange moment in its price-history back in April, when 12% of its supply was bought up, but macro sentiment and the pervading bear market seemed to win the fight, and price followed the rest of the market in an extended sell-off. However, even the swiftest of glances at the volume profile on the chart can tell us that there has been almost zero volume on the decline of the past few months, and capitulation seems to have occured on the one steep day of decline towards the end of August.

Since that point, price has consolidated above the 15-month trendline resistance, finding support – strangely enough – at the opening price of Ubiq’s listing on Bittrex. Funny how these things work out, isn’t it? Small volume spikes are beginning to appear within this range, and I believe buys here will be rewarded before the end of the year.


Synereo:

AMP/USD

AMP/BTC

Price: $0.046 (718 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.65mn (723 BTC)

Thoughts: Synereo is in a very interesting position at the moment. AMP/BTC has seen three consecutive market cycles with lower and lower peaks, forming a trendline resistance that spans two years. Price is also trading a little above its all-time low, and the endpoint of the trendline resistance has arrived. Poloniex delisting AMP sent it down below a short-term level of support, but, in the past week, a sign of renewed interest appeared: 9% of the circulating supply was traded last week (around $420k). That’s a lot of money to throw at a lower-midcap at such a pivotal point in its price-history.

A quick look at AMP/USD also indicates that prices are back within their long-term accumulation range; prices that have been rewarded without fail since Synereo’s inception. Reward-to-risk here is huge, as one could quite easily have a soft stop at a daily close below 500 satoshis (~30%), or you could use a fixed-risk approach like I tend to for lowcaps and midcaps. Comparing the two charts, peaks in AMP/USD have gotten progressively higher whilst the inverse has occured against BTC. I would imagine that, whenever the next cycle occurs, this may rebalance.


Musicoin:

Price: $0.004 (57 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.159mn (646 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally we come to what I feel is the highest reward-to-risk opportunity I’ve seen in a while; or at least one of a handful. There is very little I need to paint on the chart except that over a third of the supply was traded in the past two weeks, with 20% being traded a few days ago. This amounts to around $1.7mn of MUSIC that exchanged hands recently. Couple this with the fact that price is trading ~10% above its all-time low, and has been holding that level for 10 weeks now, and you have a strong case for buying.

There is one weakness that I must point out, however, and that is the constant supply emission. Roughly 1.6mn MUSIC come into existence daily, or ~580mn a year. This equals to an annual inflation rate of a little over 50%. Now, this is by no means a deal-breaker, especially given the upside potential, but it’s something to consider. At current prices, daily supply emission is 0.91 BTC or a little under $6,000. To put this in perspective, MUSIC has traded an average of $80,782 daily for the past month. Its average daily volume covers its average daily supply emission by over 1300%.

I hope this eighth Market Outlook has been informative. I rather enjoyed not analysing BTC, ETH and XMR for once. Feel free to post any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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Market Outlook #3

Market Outlook #3 (23rd September 2018)

Hello, and welcome to the third Market Outlook post. For today’s post, we’ll be looking at Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and ALQO. There has been a lot of significant price-action over the past few days, and the first four coins (all of which have featured in this series of posts previously) look a lot different to how they looked in the first Market Outlook. ALQO is a newcomer, and felt like a must-include because of its recent movements.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the updates:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6681

Market Cap: $115.487bn

Thoughts: Contrary to what many seemed to be expecting, price has held firmly above the swing-low formed last week above $6k. Not only have we seen the local low held, but a new local high has been formed, creating bullish market structure for the short-term. This, coupled with last week’s rejection of a close below that oh-so-vital $6k level, is objectively bullish. We all know Bitcoin likes to set things up and then piss all over expectation; but, sparing perhaps one false wick of fuckery, present price-action is indicative of a bullish move above $7500 and a breakout from the trendline resistance sooner rather than later. In all honesty, I believe the worst is over with regards to price. I’m putting myself out there… if I’m wrong and the past two weeks of price-action has occured to lure me into a false sense of security, then so be it. Onwards and upwards, I say.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $122.19 (0.01828 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.007bn (300,388 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero continues to paint a bullish picture across-the-board. We have, however, moved more slowly from last week than I anticipated, and the re-test of ~$150 resistance hasn’t quite arrived yet. A series of higher lows and higher highs are forming on both BTC and USD charts. Short-term resistance at 0.0162BTC and $105, respectively, has become support, and I would expect to see further upside next week.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $242.60 (0.03629 BTC)

Market Cap: $24.779bn (3,707,430 BTC)

Thoughts: Volume is perhaps the most significant aspect of current ETH analysis. Not only has the previous volume all-time high been equalled for ETH/USD on Bitfinex, but, unlike that first occurence, volume has remained heavy. Plus, this time it preceded a breakout of 9-month trendline resistance. ATH volume + long-term trendline breakout is indicative of a bottom. On the 4H, price is consolidating around short-term resistance of $250. We could see a small dip to $225 to re-test the local breakout level, perhaps also testing the short-term uptrend that has formed. The major resistance zone in USD, however, is between $360-400. Turning to ETH/BTC, this past week also saw a trendline breakout, though of a shorter-term dowtrend. However, this breakout has occured within a daily bullish orderblock, and there is very little horizontal resistance between here and 0.053 BTC. On the 4H, we can see local resistance at 0.04 BTC, around 10% north of where price currently sits, with recent resistance forming local support levels. There also appears to be somewhat of an ascending triangle breakout above 0.035 BTC, though it’s a little abstract.


Stratis:

Price: $1.54 (0.000231555 BTC)

Market Cap: $152.974mn (22,930 BTC)

Thoughts: STRAT/BTC remains within the range illustrated in my first Market Outlook post, with bullish market structure being formed on the 4H. Range resistance is around 24k satoshis, and it would take a sustained period of price-action above this level before I believe the 29k-satoshi local top can be tested and broken above. This would be the Disbelief level that would indicate a new market cycle beginning. However, whilst we remain within this range, I’m buying. The closer to 20k satoshis I can get my average entry, the better. It has now been 6 weeks within this range, and I wouldn’t expect too many more range-bound weeks.


ALQO:

Price: $0.20 (2951 satoshis)

Market Cap: $11.25mn (1,664 BTC)

Thoughts: A new coin for the Market Outlook series, and one that I tweeted about earlier in the week. ALQO has surprisingly immaculate market structure for a low-to-mid-cap coin. I won’t get into its fundamentals here, but the chart alone is worthy of at least some consideration. Price has remained below trendline resistance since May, but broke out of said resistance earlier this month, on increasing (though still low) volume. Since then, support-turned-resistance at ~2400 satoshis has once again become a level of support, with a heavy resistance zone ahead between 4000-5000 satoshis. I believe a new market cycle has begun for ALQO; a belief that will be confirmed if price can sustain a move above this resistance zone, into Disbelief. I expect the 2400-satoshi level to become a local bottom.

And that wraps up our third Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it insightful. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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