Market Outlook #34 (Altcoin Special)

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Market Outlook #34 (7th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to part two of this week’s Market Outlook. For those who missed the first part, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Dash in extensive detail, you can find it here.

In this post, however, I will be covering Stratis, Komodo, Ark and Ardor. These are four of the larger mid-to-largecap altcoins I’m invested in, and I think they largely reflect the nature of most of the altcoin market at present.

Strangely, whilst most of the market is at ALT/BTC lows, I do not think the bloodshed is quite over yet, as my expectations for an imminent short-term top in Bitcoin give me reason to believe we’ll see more blood when BTC retraces. Altcoins will have their time to shine, but it’ll take either a period of consolidation or a slow and steady rise in Bitcoin (above the $6k resistance) before that occurs. Volatility and uncertainty in Bitcoin is generally not so good for alts…

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRATUSDWeekly

STRATUSDDaily

STRAT/BTC

STRATBTCWeekly

STRATBTCDaily

Price: $0.82 (13787 satoshis)

Market Cap: $81.175mn (13,693 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has a lot going for it fundamentally (as do the rest of the four coins featured in this post) but its chart now looks horrific. Just two weeks ago, it was one of the stronger looking charts…

Now, let us take a look at the Weekly chart for STRAT/USD for some context:

Trendline resistance that was in play for a year was broken going into 2019 and price successfully retested it in January. As such, there is a strong possibility that the cyclical low was formed at $0.53 last year. Since then price has found resistance at an historical level of support, $1.34.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see the breakout from trendline resistance occurred on high volume and that mid-term support has formed around $0.73. However, STRAT’s climb above the 200-day moving average was shortlived and price now sits in a precarious position with at least 30% of room to fall before it reaches the low from December 2018. If Bitcoin does retrace towards the low $4k area, STRAT/USD would undoubtedly be dragged down towards this potential support level.

STRAT/BTC looked rather comfortable above 21k satoshis in April, but, looking at its Weekly chart, we can see that it now looks a little grim:

18-month trendline resistance was broken in December, and price found resistance at support turned resistance around 40k satoshis. Following this, it retraced towards 21k satoshis where it sat, presumably in re-accumulation, for a couple of months. However, late April brought with it a breakdown from this support level and price has continued to fall, breaking and closing the Weekly below the November low of 15k satoshis. It seems to me to be painting something of a spring as it seeks to test the trendline resistance as support once more, though this time around 12k satoshis.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see where price lost the 200-day moving average followed by a fall through the significant 0.0002 BTC level. The subsequent sell-off has been steep but very low in volume, indicating that a move into historical resistance at 12k satoshis from 2017 will likely be a good place to buy. However, low-risk buyers would wait for a rejection and break of the bearish market structure before an entry. I have depicted the path I expect Stratis to take on its Weekly chart, though I expect movements to be more explosive than shown if late Q2/early Q3 is when alts get some relief.


Komodo:

KMD/USD

KMD/BTC

KMDBTCWeekly

KMDBTCDaily

Price: $1.10 (18567 satoshis)

Market Cap: $124.511mn (21,000 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo looks relatively strong compared to other alts, though it suffered from a great deal of downside of late too. Looking at KMD/USD on the Weekly timeframe, it is evident that price is lingering around serious resistance but remains above its 20-week moving average. Again, given the significant relationship between Bitcoin’s price at ALT/USD prices, I expect KMD/USD to be dragged back towards trendline support (and perhaps briefly under it) as Bitcoin finds a short-term top.

Now, let’s take a look at the Weekly chart for KMD/BTC:

10-month trendline resistance was broken and retested prior to 2019, after which price rose steadily, respecting its trendline support. It found resistance at prior support around 28k satoshis, retracing hard towards the trendline, which then gave way. What has followed is a move back into what is clearly an area of historical accumulation for all of Komodo’s bull cycles.

From the Daily chart, we can see that price is lingering within this range, above support at 17500 satoshis, but if Bitcoin sneezes I expect this level to give way and KMD to move towards 15700 satoshis. I do, however, expect the November low at 13400 satoshis to remain intact as a cyclical low. A move above 21500 satoshis would confirm the reversal.


Ark:

ARK/USD

ARKUSDWeekly

ARKBTCWeekly

ARK/BTC

ARKBTCWeekly

ARKBTCDaily

Price: $0.49 (8191 satoshis)

Market Cap: $54.54mn (9,178 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is another coin that looked very strong against Bitcoin in Q1 but has suffered a deep retracement towards November lows.

The Weekly chart for ARK/USD depicts the breakout above support turned resistance at $0.50 and the 20-week moving average in Q1, following which price found resistance at $0.90. It has since fallen towards trendline support and the 20-week moving average has been lost. Further, it is sitting at the reclaimed level of support at $0.50.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see price flirting with trendline support, but also that the 200-day moving average has also been lost. Multiple Daily closes below support indicate that there is further downside to be had, and a close below $0.45 would open up a move towards $0.36.

But what about ARK/BTC? Well, as can be seen in the Weekly chart, price is sitting just above the first ever Weekly orderblock, which preceded the 2017 bull cycle. This is likely a great area for low-risk, high-reward accumulation, and the successive bearish Weekly candles suggest to me that we will see the local low at 7300 satoshis taken out before price rejects, acting as a spring for a new cycle to begin.

I have depicted this on the Daily chart, where we can also see the series of significant levels of support that have been lost recently. A move back above 9500 satoshis would indicate that a bottom has been found, but I expect we shall see price wick below 7k before that happens.


Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDRUSDWeekly

ARDRUSDDaily

ARDR/BTC

ARDRBTCWeekly

ARDRBTCDaily

Price: $0.07 (1176 satoshis)

Market Cap: $69.6mn (11,753 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally, we have Ardor. One particularly interesting feature of Ardor’s price-history can be found on the Weekly chart for ARDR/USD, where I have depicted a very similar fractal that seems to be playing out from late 2016/early 2017. Further, the 5-month trendline support is being respected by the Weekly candles, but its fortunes are largely tied to the movement of Bitcoin. We can clearly see numerous levels of support becoming resistance, with the most recent resistance found at $0.09.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see that there is actually a little room to fall before Ardor tests its trendline support against the Dollar. Further, it also just about holding onto its 200-day moving average and holding above resistance turned support at $0.067. However, again, unless Ardor massively outperforms Bitcoin, a retracement in BTC/USD will certainly bring ARDR/USD below these areas of support, perhaps towards $0.50.

The ARDR/BTC chart, however, is a work of art, as price has moved back into the original accumulation zone from 2016. I have painted a price trajectory on the Weekly chart. It is, however, paramount that Ardor holds above 900 satoshis, which is its all-time low. A move below that would open up bearish price discovery. Whilst Ardor holds within this range, it is likely a rewarding opportunity to accumulate.

Finally, looking at the Daily chart, I have shown where Ardor broke its uptrend against Bitcoin and lost its 200-day moving average. The subsequent dump has been extensive, bringing price all the way back to the November low above 1100 satoshis. The recent rejection of a move below this does suggest that a double bottom may be forming, but I expect this low will be swept in a similar spring-like fashion to that which we are seeing across-the-board in alts.

And that concludes this lengthy second part to this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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Market Outlook #28

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #28 (24th March 2019)

Welcome to the 28th Market Outlook.

Today’s post will be a little briefer than usual, as much of the market remains in consolidation – I’ll just be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, plus a quick update on Stratis.

Bitcoin:

Price: $4040

Market Cap: $70.887bn

Thoughts: In last week’s post, I mentioned that though short-term price-action was bullish, it is critical to remember the longer-term range price is currently trading within, and that we were coming towards the top of that range.

I was over-expectant in this short-term bullishness, anticipating a retest of $4300 this past week; instead, price found resistance a little early and dropped off towards $4000, with the ~$4025 prior resistance remaining support. In truth, there was very little movement at all over the past week, with price remaining inside a ~$130 range.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that volume remains flat whilst price trails the 20-day moving average, forming a short-term ascending triangle; a triangle that, if price continues to trail the 20MA, will conclude around the first week of April. In general, price tends to break upwards from ascending triangles, but range resistance lies waiting if this is the case.

Over the coming week, I expect more of the same, with little volatility and price continuing to trail the 20MA towards the conclusion of the ascending triangle. Perhaps towards the end of the week (and the month),  we will see a breakout.

If price breaks and closes below the current uptrend on the Daily time-frame, I’d expect a move back towards $3800 to follow. If price breaks out above the local high below $4300, I’d expect the range resistance at $4500 to provide the next area for consolidation. Short-term outlook remains bullish, however, unless we get a clean break of that 3-week uptrend on signficant volume.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $137.84 (0.03427 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.523bn (3,611,743 BTC)

Thoughts: I completely underestimated the slowness of ETH over the past week, expecting price to make a weekly low around last Tuesday/Wednesday and see out the rest of the week with a move towards 0.036 BTC. Instead, we saw prices move towards the short-term range support above 0.034 BTC.

A similar pattern of price-action can be observed on the 4H ETH/BTC chart, with price running towards this support, breaking out above short-term trendline resistance and then returning to 0.0355 BTC. I expect we’ll see something similar play out over the coming week. This is all within a larger period of consolidation between 0.033 BTC and 0.036 BTC that I believe is setting Ethereum up for another move up towards 0.043 BTC in April. The only worry here is that ETH longs are at an all-time high on Bitfinex, and perhaps we need these shaken out before upwards momentum can continue. If this is to be the case, I’d expect the 3-week uptrend to give way on ETH/USD and prices to move back towards the longer-term uptrend at ~$125 – a fall of around 10%. This would imply an equivalent fall in BTC/USD if ETH/BTC is to remain within its current range.

Regardless, I remain leaning bullish on ETH going into April, and I believe what we will actually see is an upwards breakout from the ascending triangle that can be observed on the ETH/USD Daily chart.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.82 (0.01339 BTC)

Market Cap: $908.174mn (226,032 BTC)

Thoughts: We now approach 100 days range-bound for Monero; a vast period of consolidation that I believe indicates that Monero will be one of the outperformers of the next bull cycle amongst the ultra large-caps.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.94 (23415 satoshis)

Market Cap: $93.357mn (23,242 BTC)

Thoughts: The Stratis Weekly chart is a thing of beauty. Back in December, we saw a high-volume, explosive breakout above the long-term trendline resistance. Price has since experienced a low-volume pullback towards an earlier accumulation range, where it is being re-accumulated prior to a second leg up. I believe this second leg will take us towards prior support turned resistance at ~50k satoshis before the end of April. Beyond this, I expect to see prices reach for ~75k satoshis…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #17

Market Outlook #17 (6th January 2019)

Happy New Year, everyone! Welcome to the 17th Market Outlook, and the first of 2019. Having taken a two-week break over Christmas, it seems I missed a lot of interesting action; in particular, that of Ethereum, as we’ll discuss shortly. Overall, it looks to me like the signals that appeared in  early December in anticipation of short-term reversals are finally bearing fruit across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll cover the past couple of weeks of price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as Stratis and Komodo. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3901

Market Cap: $68.135bn

Thoughts: So, it’s been a good three weeks since the last Market Outlook, in which I suggested that a short-term bottom was nearby. Since then, Bitcoin has moved from ~$3200 to just shy of $4400 and back to around $3700. Price then consolidated after the period of volatility and has now found short-term resistance at $4115 (a level of prior resistance), with higher-lows forming with each test; this, in essence, is an ascending triangle, but volume is currently flat, so we can’t be 100% confident in a breakout to the upside.

That being said, the 1H chart clearly shows a lot of swing highs in the $4100 region that remain unswept, and with price having already cleared the swing-low at $3875, it is likely that we will see continued bullish price-action. However, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a false breakout to the downside, with price looking to trade inside the 1H bullish orderblock at $3825 prior to making any further upwards progress…

Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $153.49 (0.0399 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.943bn (4,162,730 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum has experienced a tremendous reversal, having swept the September lows at ~0.027 BTC early in December. The Weekly shows us that price failed to break the long-term support at ~0.023 BTC, and the reluctance to make new lows has led us to a near-60% rally against Bitcoin. In the process of rallying, ETH has broken through numerous short-term resistance levels on significant volume, with the most important move occuring towards the end of 2018, when price broke above 0.034 BTC, thus breaking the bearish market structure. Price has since held that level, moving up through the resistance at 0.0375 BTC. Volume is declining on the Daily, however, suggesting that this current leg may be overextended. I would expect a period of relief, in which price moves back towards 0.036 BTC; but, make no mistake, it is very much likely we have found the cyclical bottom for ETH/BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.35 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $840.794mn (219,575 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has had a more relaxed few weeks, but also seems to have found a bottom. The Weekly shows us that price remains within the bullish orderblock from October/November 2017, failing to break below the support at 0.0111 BTC despite the extended downtrend. This downtrend has now been broken, as is clear from the Daily, and it looks as though an Adam & Eve bottom is forming with a neckline at ~0.0135 BTC. I expect Monero to take the reigns from Ethereum soon and rally towards the support turned resistance at 0.016 BTC. But first, we need a close above 0.0141 BTC to confirm the bullish market structure.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.07 (27939 satoshis)

Market Cap: $106.086mn (27,705 BTC)

Thoughts: Any regular reader of this blog will know that I am very fond of Stratis, having mentioned it in multiple posts. Around Christmas, Stratis experienced a huge buyup, after spending some time trading below range support. In that period, around a third of Stratis’ circulating supply was traded across all exchanges, and price blasted through the consolidation range, up to a peak around 42500 satoshis. In doing so, it cleared major resistance below 30k satoshis on significant volume. I would expect this area between 27-30k satoshis to become a new level of support. The recent drop-off after the peak has occured on ever-decreasing volume, suggesting that a new swing-low should soon form and, with it, a new leg up should begin.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.77 (19975 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.268mn (22,239 BTC)

Thoughts: It is somewhat rare to spot such an obvious buy as Komodo. Price has been in a large range for a long time, with rising levels of volume and clear accumulation taking place. Range resistance continues to hold at 23k satoshis, but this is one to buy on any movement back towards range support around 16k satoshis. There’s really very little else to say about this one except that the opportunity is made overt by the chart.

That concludes this instalment of Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found something of value here. Please feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.