Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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Market Outlook #6

Market Outlook #6 (14th October 2018)

On today’s Market Outlook, I cover the usual three along with two very promising high-caps: Ark and SALT.  But first, let’s just make a note of how wrong I was in last week’s Market Outlook. Actually, I was right; we finally got some dynamic movement… it just happened to be in the wrong direction. Just when you think all is running smoothly, the cryptosphere forces you to re-evaluate. It wasn’t all bad though, as we’ll discuss; and past experience leads me to believe this is a final bit of false fuckery before those levels are reclaimed. But, all in all, we are in far more of a precarious position now – across-the-board – than when I was sat writing Market Outlook #5.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6350

Market Cap: $109.990bn

Thoughts: Now, if you remember from last week’s chart, price was consolidating within a lower time-frame triangle, and I was anticipating a trendline breakout to the outside. We instead got a breakout to the downside, but on no significant volume and the trough of the sell-off held above the short-term trendline support. Bitcoin is giving us mixed signals, in short. I’ve mapped out the various double and triple bottoms and tops, to point to where the liquidity is, and thus where price may be looking to move. If price can refrain from closing the daily below $6100 (where that recent double-bottom lies), I would expect an upwards breakout from this longer-term triangle and a reclamation of $6700. Ideally, in fact, we’d want to see that double-bottom wicked below and rejected to provide fuel for the move up. However, we are lingering dangerously close to the mid-term liquidity at ~$5750, and if last week’s momentum can carry price to a daily close below $6100, I would imagine we see further breakdown from there fairly quickly. Don’t make me look a fool, Bitcoin; I still feel it in my bones that $5750 was the bottom.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $102.70 (0.0163 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.693bn (269,153 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero seems to be painting two different pictures depending on whether one is looking at XMR/USD or XMR/BTC. The USD chart has broken the short-term uptrend on mid volume, with the consolidation range now expected to become a level of resistance ~$112. That being said, stops have clearly been swept below recent swing-lows, but the initial breakout level has held firm. Two possible trajectories from here are: either, a retest of the $112 level from which price broke down; or, a couple of days of consolidation in this ~$103 zone before another leg down to test the $90 swing-low. However, when we look at the XMR/BTC chart, we see much more to be positive about. The range between 0.016 BTC and 0.019 BTC has held despite the breakdown, price is still above the 6-month downtrend and the volume on the dump was minimal. That 0.016 BTC level is critical, regardless; if that gives way, I would expect another 10-15% dump to test the lows at ~0.0135 BTC.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $200.64 (0.032 BTC)

Market Cap: $20.578bn (3,284,677 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD is very interesting: price remains above a 9-month downtrend, has formed a range between $180-250, and experienced a sell-off of near-equal volume to that of the initial breakout. Despite the high-volume sell-off, the range was held and the $165 low remains intact. Given the volume on the dump, I would have expected a deeper drop. That being said, it definitely doesn’t look pretty on the daily. Switch over to ETH/BTC (and I have illustrated a 4H chart because there is a lot going on), and we can see the 4H breaker remains strong. The swing-low at 0.031 BTC was swept but the breaker held, and now price has reversed. 0.03 BTC is now the most significant short-term level for Ethereum. I am leaning towards it holding, as the volume on the preceding swing-low (0.0313 BTC) was higher than the volume that led to the ultimate low, indicating a shortage of sellers. However, where there were previously few levels of resistance in Ethereum’s way for short-term upside movement, there are now many. Plus, concerning volume; the short-term reversal since that low has been on decreasing volume. Shaky ground.


SALT:

Price: $0.56 (8953 satoshis)

Market Cap: $41.163mn (6,543 BTC)

Thoughts: Let’s venture into brighter territory. SALT piqued my interest because over 18% of its circulating supply was traded in 24 hours a short while ago; its highest single-day volume (on Binance) of all-time. Not only that, but with the volume came a breakout above an 8-week, tight accumulation range. Price has since dipped back towards the range, and I am certainly buying. Major resistance is at 30000 satoshis.


Ark:

Price: $0.72 (11359 satoshis)

Market Cap: $75.577mn (12,006 BTC)

Thoughts: Similarly to SALT, Ark has formed a tight accumulation range, with most trading activity occuring between 10-12k satoshis. Range resistance is at 14.5k satoshis, and range support at 8k satoshis. Volume is slowly rising, and upside potential is huge. All we need to see is a SALT-esque breakout on volume to confirm the beginnings of a new bull cycle.

That concludes Market Outlook #6. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Feel free to leave any questions or feedback in the Comments section!


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