Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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Market Outlook #8

Market Outlook #8 (28th October 2018)

Well, it seems the big three that I would usually cover in these posts took the week off. Bitcoin has had one of its least volatile weeks in recent history, and Monero and Ethereum followed suit. So, to prevent today’s Market Outlook from being an utter waste of time, I have decided to make this one an Altcoin Special. I’ll be covering 4 altcoins, from lowcaps to largecaps, all of which seem to me to present huge upside opportunity at current prices. I’ll begin with Stratis, before covering Ubiq and Synereo, and finally a special treat that came onto my radar this week: Musicoin. In last week’s Market Outlook, I talked about the massive opportunity presented by FoldingCoin, and I think Musicoin might actually be an even better buy. But we’ll get onto that later…

First, Stratis:

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.64 (25318 satoshis)

Market Cap: $162mn (25,082 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis announced this past week that the project is now a Silver Partner of Microsoft. This, naturally, led to a huge buy-up, in which 5% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours on Binance alone (~$8mn). Now, this only served to reinforce my thoughts on Stratis, and I have been buying since I first wrote about the coin in Market Outlook #1, almost two months ago. Since then, price has remained within its tight range against USD and BTC, and a near-3-month accumulation range is undoubtedly in play. I believe this past week’s buy-up was merely a precursor to an imminent reversal; a reversal that would be confirmed if price can close above the major support turned resistance around $3 (which is still almost 100% away, currently). There’s a long way to go, for sure, but the signals keep appearing.


Ubiq:

Price: $0.53 (8188 satoshis)

Market Cap: $22.542mn (3,489 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq had a very strange moment in its price-history back in April, when 12% of its supply was bought up, but macro sentiment and the pervading bear market seemed to win the fight, and price followed the rest of the market in an extended sell-off. However, even the swiftest of glances at the volume profile on the chart can tell us that there has been almost zero volume on the decline of the past few months, and capitulation seems to have occured on the one steep day of decline towards the end of August.

Since that point, price has consolidated above the 15-month trendline resistance, finding support – strangely enough – at the opening price of Ubiq’s listing on Bittrex. Funny how these things work out, isn’t it? Small volume spikes are beginning to appear within this range, and I believe buys here will be rewarded before the end of the year.


Synereo:

AMP/USD

AMP/BTC

Price: $0.046 (718 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.65mn (723 BTC)

Thoughts: Synereo is in a very interesting position at the moment. AMP/BTC has seen three consecutive market cycles with lower and lower peaks, forming a trendline resistance that spans two years. Price is also trading a little above its all-time low, and the endpoint of the trendline resistance has arrived. Poloniex delisting AMP sent it down below a short-term level of support, but, in the past week, a sign of renewed interest appeared: 9% of the circulating supply was traded last week (around $420k). That’s a lot of money to throw at a lower-midcap at such a pivotal point in its price-history.

A quick look at AMP/USD also indicates that prices are back within their long-term accumulation range; prices that have been rewarded without fail since Synereo’s inception. Reward-to-risk here is huge, as one could quite easily have a soft stop at a daily close below 500 satoshis (~30%), or you could use a fixed-risk approach like I tend to for lowcaps and midcaps. Comparing the two charts, peaks in AMP/USD have gotten progressively higher whilst the inverse has occured against BTC. I would imagine that, whenever the next cycle occurs, this may rebalance.


Musicoin:

Price: $0.004 (57 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.159mn (646 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally we come to what I feel is the highest reward-to-risk opportunity I’ve seen in a while; or at least one of a handful. There is very little I need to paint on the chart except that over a third of the supply was traded in the past two weeks, with 20% being traded a few days ago. This amounts to around $1.7mn of MUSIC that exchanged hands recently. Couple this with the fact that price is trading ~10% above its all-time low, and has been holding that level for 10 weeks now, and you have a strong case for buying.

There is one weakness that I must point out, however, and that is the constant supply emission. Roughly 1.6mn MUSIC come into existence daily, or ~580mn a year. This equals to an annual inflation rate of a little over 50%. Now, this is by no means a deal-breaker, especially given the upside potential, but it’s something to consider. At current prices, daily supply emission is 0.91 BTC or a little under $6,000. To put this in perspective, MUSIC has traded an average of $80,782 daily for the past month. Its average daily volume covers its average daily supply emission by over 1300%.

I hope this eighth Market Outlook has been informative. I rather enjoyed not analysing BTC, ETH and XMR for once. Feel free to post any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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