Market Outlook #24

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Market Outlook #24 (23rd February 2019)

Hello, hello, and welcome to the 24th Market Outlook, brought to you a day early this week; you lucky devils.

This past week, we have certainly seen the bullish follow-through anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, with the market then taking a little breather as we run into resistance across-the-board. Plenty to discuss, for sure.

In today’s post, I’ll be running through the usuals (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero), as well as taking a look at the current opportunity in Dash.

Bitcoin:

Price: $4047

Market Cap: $71.039bn

Thoughts: I’ve provided a Weekly chart just to re-evaluate where we are on the higher timeframes, as the recent bullish price-action can cause us all to get a little caught up. Nonetheless, we can clearly see that price remains within a Weekly Bullish Orderblock and has yet to close on a higher-high above $44oo. This is what we need to happen in order to confirm a longer-term reversal from this current range, as a close above this level would turn Weekly market structure bullish for the first time since the bear market began; this would also open up a likely retest of the ~$6000 support now turned resistance.

Moving onto the Daily, as expected in last week’s Market Outlook, price recently broke out above the first trendline resistance, closing above it on significant volume. Price has since spent a few days consolidating beneath a number of significant areas of resistance, including further trendline resistance and the double-top at ~$4200. I find it highly unlikely that price will have moved ~20% away from the recent lows ~$3400 to leave these equal highs untouched.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see that short-term resistance formed at $4070; a level of prior support from the range that preceded the dramatic dump back in January. Whilst we remain in consolidation at such a critical area of resistance, it is impossible to know whether we will see price falter and fall back to possibly find support where the short-term uptrend meets a level of support turned resistance at ~$3900, or whether this period of consolidation will provide sufficient fuel to simply continue the journey up to take out the equal highs at ~$4200. This will only become clear as price is able to close the 4H above or below the current range on significant volume. Whichever path price takes, I believe we see those highs taken out over the next couple of weeks.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $148.40 (0.0374 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.613bn (3,926,654 BTC)

Thoughts: I have omitted the ETH/USD charts this week, as the pair is simply following BTC/USD. ETH/BTC is where some interesting movement is occuring.

On the Daily, we can see that price closed above the 200MA for the first time since June 2018. Price is now consolidating below the support turned resistance (and the most recent swing-high) at 0.042 BTC. The volume being traded on this upwards momentum suggests to me that it is likely we see this swing-high taken out. In doing so, market structure will be undoubtedly bullish and a move to test prior support at 0.054 BTC wouldn’t be out of reach.

On the 4H, a similar pattern is playing out to that which preceded this past week’s leg up. An ascending triangle has formed, with volume declining during the consolidation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see continuation of the current uptrend next week.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $52.20 (0.01312 BTC)

Market Cap: $877.547mn (220,644 BTC)

Thoughts: Whilst the temptation does exist to simply omit Monero from the current posts due to its persistence in remaining range-bound, I believe it is useful to watch an accumulation range form and play out over time. Volume remains high whilst price remains in this range, and Monero continues to lag behind the rest of the market. Seems to me like a great buying opportunity…


Dash:

DASH/USD

DASH/BTC

Price: $86.09 (0.02164 BTC)

Market Cap: $744.379mn (187,161 BTC)

Thoughts: Much like the opportunity outlined in another golden-oldie (Litecoin) from a few weeks ago, Dash is now presenting a low-risk, high-reward entry for longer-term investment.

The Weekly chart for DASH/USD shows that price is now in an area that it rarely remains in for any great length of time; beneath the long-term range that remains trending upwards. Further, whilst I tend not to pay much attention to indicators, RSI is at its most oversold in the coin’s entire history. Couple this with the fact that price is inside a Weekly Bullish Orderblock and is kissing trendline resistance from the highs made in January 2018, and you have a high-probability entry.

DASH/BTC on the Weekly timeframe is even more interesting, with price having trade below the triple-top prior resistance that one would have expected to form strong support ~0.026 BTC. Price then also broke below trendline support from August 2014; very bearish, one would think. And yet, following this bearish price-action, we’ve seen a swift reversal from those levels and a breakout above trendline resistance that has been suppressing price since January 2018. Price is currently being capped by the Daily 200MA¬† and support turned resistance at 0.0233 BTC, but if the Weekly can reclaim the lost trendline support and close above 0.026 BTC over the coming weeks, I would be almost certain the cyclical bottom is in for Dash.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll get back to you!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #23

Market Outlook #23 (17th February 2019)

Welcome to the 23rd Market Outlook. Following last week’s post, we seem to have gotten some decent follow-through in places, alongside some cases of rejection at important levels of resistance. Overall, however, bullish sentiment seems to be picking up across-the-board, and plenty of altcoins have begun their cyclical reversals.

In today’s post, I’ll be working through the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, followed by a couple of altcoins that I believe will follow the trajectory of those like Ark and Vertcoin, which have recently moved 2-3x from their lows in short-term spikes. These, keep in mind, are the beginnings of reversals.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3755

Market Cap: $65.873bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin spent the vast majority of the week consolidating after breaking market structure to the upside last week. Just this morning, it burst out of consolidation, but a breakout is unconfirmed until we get a 4H close above the short-term trendline resistance. If we do see such a breakout, and ideally on more significant volume than at present, I believe we will see BTC approach those equal highs ~$4200 soon after.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that price is currently being capped by mid-term trendline resistance, and remains within an important pivot area. Reclaiming this area and breaking out above it on the higher timeframes is what we need to see to confirm another leg up.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $127.93 (0.03498 BTC)

Market Cap: $13.417bn (3,669,555 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum continues to look bullish against the Dollar, recently breaking out above 6-month trendline resistance, though not on particularly significant volume. Despite this, it seems as though the move below the $116 support was indeed a fakeout, with price explosively reclaiming levels beyond it since. The 4H actually illuminates the volume profile more clearly, with significant volume occuring on the upwards movements. A 4H close above $132 would make it all but inevitable for price to retest those recent highs (and significant resistance) around $170.

Looking at ETH/BTC, we can see that the local highs at 0.042 BTC were capped by the Daily 200MA, and that price is once again attempting a breakout above the moving average. This is taking place after a significant reversal from the move below 0.0318 BTC, but declining volume on this uptrend is a worry. I’d like to see volume return with a Daily close above the 200MA and above the swing-high at 0.035 BTC to confirm a retest of those highs at 0.042 BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $47.47 (0.01291 BTC)

Market Cap: $797.396mn (216,871 BTC)

Thoughts: Well, what can I say… Monero seems to be the new Litecoin, rock-like in its determination to remain inside the range it has formed. This past week, we saw price attempt a breakout but price quickly returned to the range; Monero is clearly still in accumulation.


Komodo:

KMD/USD

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.80 (21790 satoshis)

Market Cap: $89.737mn (24,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo is perhaps amongst the handful of opportunities at present that encompasses both fundamental and technical strength in abundance. KMD/USD has recently broke out above trendline resistance from January 2018 on high volume, though remains capped by the 200MA.

If we look at the first chart for KMD/BTC, we can also see that, in the past, Komodo has traded below 22.5k satoshis twice, and when that level was reclaimed with a Daily close above it, a new bull cycle began. It is currently at the edge of a third occurrence, and though market conditions are certainly dissimilar to those of the previous two occurrences, this is nonetheless a low-risk, high-reward opportunity. Perhaps we won’t see quite as explosive a bull cycle this time, but, then again, Bitcoin is trading at similar prices to those of the first bull cycle that occured in Komodo.


MonetaryUnit:

MUE/BTC

Price: $0.014 (380 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.098mn (576 BTC)

Thoughts: Having written a Coin Report on MonetaryUnit previously, and knowing it has fundamental qualities that few projects in its market-cap range possess, it is even more pleasing to see a potential triple-bottom forming here.

MUE/BTC has seen numerous high-volume buyups over the past few months, and has refused to trade below 300 satoshis during that time. Buys here with soft stop-losses on a Daily close below 300 seem a good idea to me.


Kore:

KORE/BTC

Price: $0.37 (10158 satoshis)

Market Cap: $801,426 (218 BTC)

Thoughts: This is a proper Bittrex low-cap, and one of the shitcoin plays I most like. I know little of its fundamentals but I like that Kore is at historical support, and has experienced several high volume buyups since November. Price is currently range-bound, with 16-month trendline resistance edging closer and closer. Price is also trailing just below the Daily 200MA. For the more risk-averse, waiting for a Daily close above 14k satoshis is likely a good plan, but, as can be seen in the left side of the chart, Kore moves explosively.

That concludes this 23rd Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read. Feel free to leave any questions or comments below and I’ll get back to you!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #22

Market Outlook #22 (10th February 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 22nd Market Outlook.

We’ve finally seen some expansive price-action after weeks of consolidation, but we certainly aren’t out of the woods yet. That being said, much of what was expected in last week’s Market Outlook has played out, and we have a number of higher timeframe bullish reversals forming.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus I’ll provide an update on the opportunity spotted in Litecoin from last week. I’ll conclude by taking a look at Vertcoin and the interesting movements its seen over the past few days.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3655

Market Cap: $64.078bn

Thoughts: Last week, I mentioned that the progressively decreasing volume on the series of trendline breaks was likely a sign that sellers were running out of steam, but that we’d need to see a high volume breakout and a higher timeframe close above $3600 to confirm a bullish reversal. We got exactly that.

Looking at the Weekly, we haven’t seen price close at a higher-high in well over a year. As such, a Weekly close above the prior swing-high ~$4400 would confirm this reversal on the higher timeframes and open up the doors to a retest of the $6k-level – but that is a long way away…

On the Hourly, we do appear to be bull-flagging, athough I place little faith in patterns on lower timeframes. Either way, I expect a period of consolidation (or perhaps even a small dip) prior to the $3800 being retested. A 4H close above this level would be very bullish for short-term price-action.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $117.46 (0.03219 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.309bn (3,373,755 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD is trailing very closely beneath the trendline resistance from April 2018. Even more significantly, we have yet to reclaim the ~$170-level; an area of prior support turned key resistance.

That being said, the 4H chart against the Dollar indicates, much like in Bitcoin, that sellers are exhausted in this area, with a high-volume breakout occuring a couple of days ago. This breakout pushed price back above the key support at $116 that was lost only a couple of weeks ago. The next area of resistance is at $135, and a breakout above here would open the doors for new local highs above $170 – and with it, reclamation of a very significant level on the Weekly.

ETH/BTC shows near-perfect symmetry in its price-action to its Dollar pair, although with the 200MA currently capping price. Numerous short-term levels of support were reclaimed after a high-volume spike sent price above 0.0323 BTC. I’m expecting a period of consolidation before further upwards momentum.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.04 (0.01315 BTC)

Market Cap: $806.287mn (220,834 BTC)

Thoughts: As has been the case for the past couple of months, Monero is lagging behind, taking things at its own leisurely pace. As such, XMR/BTC remains inside a range and there is nothing new to say about it. Interestingly, however, XMR/USD saw price close the Daily above range resistance at $47.50. I would expect the next move to be a breakout above the range in XMR/BTC, sending price against the Dollar towards that $57 resistance.


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

LTC/BTC

Price: $43.45 (0.0119 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.624bn (718,934 BTC)

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I highlighted the opportunity presenting itself in Litecoin. This past week, we saw that hypothesis confirmed, with an explosive breakout above support turned resistance at 0.01 BTC. This level, as mentioned in the previous post, has usually been the catalyst for historical bull cycles.

Against the Dollar, Litecoin has broken above short-term resistance, now turned support, at $42. It is currently lingering beneath its 200-day MA and above trendline resistance; a likely area for consolidation before further expansion.

I expect 0.0155 BTC to be the next level of resistance, and I would imagine we reach it sooner rather than later…


Vertcoin:

VTC/USD

VTC/BTC

Price: $0.27 (7418 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.050mn (3,570 BTC)

Thoughts: Much like Litecoin last week, Vertcoin is also presenting a high-reward, low-risk opportunity. Against the Dollar, price has been range-bound for the past few months, with range support having formed at the Weekly close of the peak of the previous bull cycle (around $0.20). Volume is also gradually rising…

VTC/BTC on the Weekly shows us that price is currently trading inside the long-term accumulation range. From within this range, price has seen 3 or 4 previous bull cycles.

On the Daily, we can see that the 200MA has price capped at present, despite the recent spike in price and volume. The signs of interest are all there, and this is occuring in confluence with historically-significant prices…

 

That concludes this 22nd Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. As ever, feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.