Monero Archives – An Altcoin Trader's Handbook

Market Outlook #40

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.

Market Outlook #40 (16th June 2019)

Welcome to the 40th Market Outlook, and what a week it has been. I took a short holiday mid-week and returned to dynamic movements across-the-board. As such, in today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero in depth, plus taking a look at Dash.

Bitcoin:

Daily:

4H:

Price: $9284

Market Cap: $164.911bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I outlined the short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin, with bullish market structure having been broken. However, I also mentioned that a break above trendline resistance and horizontal resistance at ~$8250 would revert market structure back to bullish, and it didn’t take long for this to happen, cementing the bullish momentum for Bitcoin.

As can be seen on the Daily chart, the large period of consolidation between $7-9k was occurring on declining volume, as this recent ascent to new highs has also been doing. We are yet to see daily volume break its downtrend and yet the uptrend for price remains very strong. I have depicted where I expect the next area of short-term resistance to be found, which is the psychological and historically significant area around $10,000. However, looking at the equal highs marked out around $11,700, these seem ripe for picking, and I expect any move above $10k will be swiftly followed by a move up towards this area; there is also confluence here with the 1.618 extension of the current swing.

Now, looking at the 4H, we can actually see volume more accurately on this recent advance, with volume steadily rising as price broke above $9100. This advance also mirrors the advance occurring on the Daily timeframe, with the rally growing steeper with each move up. The next area of interest on this timeframe is that psychologically-relevant $10k spot… this is also where I expect news and media outlets to begin discussing Bitcoin again more frequently.

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Daily:

4H:

ETH/BTC

Daily:

Price: $276.12 (0.0297 BTC)

Market Cap: $29.409bn (3,167,871 BTC)

Thoughts: There is rather a lot going on with Ethereum at the moment on its various charts, but let’s begin by looking at ETH/USD on the Daily timeframe:

Here, we can see the strong rejection and continuation off the 360-day moving average; a sign that the bullish trend is very much still in play. Further, we can see that each successive peak in ETH/USD has occurred on rising volume, which is something I shall be looking for on the next leg up. RSI has also reset heavily on the retrace to $225, with plenty of room for price to move upwards towards the next area of resistance, which looks to be between $330-350.

Looking at the 4H ETH/USD chart, we can see that market structure turned bullish after a period of decline when $250 was reclaimed, following a break above and successful retest of trendline resistance. The 200MA is currently supporting price, alongside the strong uptrend that began last week. Volume is largely flat for now, but I expect this will change upon a break above $290. $333 is the 1.618 extension of this recent range, and thus likely where price will move towards over the coming weeks.

Now, ETH/BTC is a different beast entirely, with it currently unsure on its relationship to BTC/USD. Sometimes, when Bitcoin rises, ETH/BTC is stagnant; sometimes it falls; sometimes when Bitcoin falls, ETH/BTC rises; and so on…

Thus, with such chop and change, it is important to retain a higher timeframe perspective, and the Daily chart shows a retrace from the highs of mid-May into the Daily Breaker on declining volume (accounting for one anomalous day). These are all signs of an impending bullish continuation. The one thing that looks rather bearish is the fact that ETH/BTC closed above its 200-day moving average on significant volume in May, but has lost it recently and is now being capped by it. However, as long as price remains inside or above the Daily Breaker, I am bullish on Ethereum, overall.

Monero:

XMR/BTC

4H:

Price: $96.32 (0.01049 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.641bn (176,861 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has formed a new range since finding its potential cyclical low in May at 0.01 BTC, with range resistance at 0.0117 BTC, local support at 0.0104 BTC (where it currently lingers) and the range pivot at 0.0108 BTC. This pivot was lost this past week when alts all dumped in harmony, with it now acting as short-term resistance. It is vital for Monero to hold this range (in particular, above 0.01 BTC), as this is critical historical support, with very few significant levels beneath it for a long way down. Until we break above 0.0117 BTC, however, there is no confirmation of a new bull cycle beginning.

Dash:

DASH/USD

Daily:

DASH/BTC

Daily:

Price: $160.03 (0.01724 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.419bn (152,892 BTC)

Thoughts: DASH/USD is in a very good position at the moment, similar to ETH/USD in its recent retest and continuation off the 360-day moving average. It also has a strong uptrend on the Daily timeframe, with the trendline support holding on several occasions. Volume is particularly high of late, with declining volume on retracements and increasing volume on rallies, indicating that the trend remains healthy. The 1.618 extension of the most recent swing would see prices at historical support turned resistance of $250.

This thesis is backed up when taking a look at DASH/BTC, which, though having declined towards its potential cyclical low of 0.0165 BTC this past week, seems to be rejecting a move below this level. Further, the decline since the highs of mid-May has occurred on decreasing volume, with the 200MA having capped price back then. Short-term support turned resistance is ahead at 0.0183 BTC and a move back above this level on significant volume would indicate that the cyclical low is indeed in for DASH/BTC.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!

If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #39

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Market Outlook #39 (9th June 2019)

Hello, hello, and welcome to the 39th Market Outlook.

It’s been an interesting week for many altcoins, with numerous spikes occurring across-the-board, whilst high-caps remain largely in consolidation.

As such, in this post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin and Ethereum, as usual, but will be substituting the subdued Monero for Komodo, as well as taking a look at opportunities in Einsteinium and Reddcoin.

Bitcoin:

Daily:

4H:

Price: $7935

Market Cap: $140.822bn

Thoughts: The bearish scenario played out rather than the bullish one, and thus no new highs were given to us this past week.

Instead, as can be seen from the Daily chart, we were given a clean market structure break to the downside on solid volume, but prices failed to move below the low of that initial daily candle at ~$7450. Instead, new support has been found at $7620, with three consecutive daily candles failing to close below it despite all wicking below. Price then moved back up towards the area where market structure turned bearish (~$8000) and is now failing to close above that area, with historical resistance holding firm at $8200. For now, the Daily chart remains range-bound between $7500-$8200 and volume remains flat. This consolidation indicates an expansive move incoming, beyond the body of the original candle that broke market structure. The likelihood is that this expansion will come in the form of a bearish continuation, with a move towards $7240 being likely whilst Daily market structure remains bearish.

Now, looking at the 4H, we can see that the 200MA is currently supporting price but that even the 4H candles are struggling to close above $8000, with short-term trendline resistance incoming next week. Unless price can break above $8230 and trendline resistance on solid volume, the outlook remains bearish short-term, with further consolidation expected early next week followed by another test of $7450.

Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $244.63 (0.03081 BTC)

Market Cap: $25.988bn (3,264,756 BTC)

Thoughts: Now, as is the case with the majority of the largest altcoins, Ethereum remains in consolidation against BTC after its initial rally from the lows in May. Price continues to hold above 0.03 BTC, with support also being reclaimed at 0.0305 BTC this past week. However, trendline resistance from May 15th continues to cap any upwards momentum, with price retracing back towards 0.0305 BTC support a couple of days ago. That said, this leg down occurred on declining volume, with each successive test of 0.0305 BTC support experiencing declining volume also; are sellers running out of steam? More often than not, descending triangles like the one currently playing out break out to the downside, but higher timeframe perspectives and volume patterns indicate otherwise. Cautiously bullish.

Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $1.70 (21495 satoshis)

Market Cap: $194.892mn (24,593 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo is one of the altcoins I expect to outperform in the next bull cycle, and it looks as though this next cycle is whirring its engines. Having dumped with the rest of the market throughout April and early May, Komodo found what looks to be a cyclical bottom at a little under 14k satoshis, having rallied strongly since, breaking above trendline resistance and reclaiming the 200-day and 360-day moving average. Price is now in the historical pivot zone between 20-24k satoshis; an area of support and resistance across numerous instances over the past year. If price can continue this current momentum and close above 24k satoshis, I expect the rally to grow steeper as we enter the Disbelief phase of the new market cycle…

Einsteinium:

EMC2/BTC

Price: $0.11 (1396 satoshis)

Market Cap: $25.262mn (3,187 BTC)

Thoughts: Given that altcoin action has begun to grow interesting again, I figured I’d include a couple of smaller alts in this post. The first of these is Einsteinium, which has a monster bull cycle in 2017/18. Whilst there is a high probability that we are witnessing the beginnings of new bull cycles as we transition out of altcoin bear cycles, and thus these positions are best held cyclically for those that are not traders, I have depicted a ~5:1 reward-to-risk opportunity here for EMC2/BTC.

We can clearly see that EMC2 has been forming long-term higher-lows by the near-8-month trendline support. Further, there is a bullish divergence on recent swing-lows, with price also failing to break below trendline support. Entries here with a stop-loss on a Daily close below trendline resistance offer us 5:1 reward-to-risk with a target of the local high at 2900 satoshis, set in March this year.

Beyond this, Einsteinium hit ~19k satoshis whilst Bitcoin was trading above $15k… food for thought.

Reddcoin:

RDD/BTC

Price: $0.0017 (21 satoshis)

Market Cap: $48.747mn (6,167 BTC)

Thoughts: Lastly, a low-satoshi coin is always a good play for an altseason. Reddcoin is about as legacy as they get, besides perhaps Dogecoin. We can see from the chart that there have been numerous accumulation spikes over the past few months, and that, following the loss of support at 30 satoshis in April, price fell to a low of 19 satoshis. Trendline resistance from this fall has been broken and there is another 5:1 play here without even targetting the local high of 83 satoshis. Instead, an entry here with a stop-loss on a close below 16 satoshis and a target of the support turned resistance at 46 satoshis offers us 5:1 reward-to-risk. I myself will also be holding a cyclical position in RDD, as it tends to go a bit nutty when new cycles begin.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below!

Market Outlook #38

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Market Outlook #38 (3rd June 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 38th Market Outlook, albeit a day late.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, as well as providing updates on Tron and Cardano.

Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Daily:

4H:

Price: $8550

Market Cap: $151.815bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that I expect price to clear the ‘double top’ at ~$8400, given that such clean resistance often provides fuel for further upwards momentum.

This past week, price did exactly that, climbing above short-term resistance to new highs of $9100, where it topped out and rejected hard, dumping back below $8000 briefly. However, as can be seen on the Daily chart, price refused to close below this level, instead respecting it as a new area of prior resistance turned support. Now, we can also see that the parabolic advance is still just about in play, and until we get a clean break below trendline support on significant volume, I anticipate new highs later this week.

That being said, it is quite clear that such an advance cannot be sustained indefinitely, and it does appear that Bitcoin is losing steam on this particular rally, indicated by higher prices but declining RSI and volume. If we do break below that trendline support, I expect $8000 will be retested, and a close below that level would turn market structure bearish on the Daily timeframe. This would likely lead to a move back towards ~$7500.

Now, looking at the 4H chart, we can see that the move up to $9100, followed by the move to ~$8k, broke market structure on this timeframe. However, price recovered well, climbing back above $8500 and forming a lower high around $8800. I’m watching for a clean break of this lower high to indicate new highs on the way, or a break below $8300 to confirm a retest of $8000 support.

Bullish until proven otherwise, in short.

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

4H:

ETH/BTC

Daily:

1H:

Price: $264.97 (0.0309 BTC)

Market Cap: $28.175bn (3,300,678 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum did precisely what was expected of it last week, culminating in a huge market-wide shakeout before last weekend. Looking first at ETH/USD, however, we can see that price broke out of its bullish pennant on decent volume, finding new highs at $289, before it rejected and found support at $235; a huge move that concluded with the 4H closing above $250 and recovering prior resistance turned support at $260.

Now, looking at the Daily chart for ETH/BTC, we can see exactly where the volatility came in last week, sending prices down into the Daily Breaker, just below 0.03 BTC; a level I mentioned must hold for price-action to remain bullish. This level held firm, and price looks to be forming an extended swing-low preceding the next leg up. The 1H depicts trendline resistance that is currently holding price down, but I expect we shall see ETH/BTC make a move above 0.032 BTC over the coming days, turning short-term market structure bullish and beginning a new leg up.

Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $93.96 (0.01102 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.599bn (187,412 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero remains in consolidation, having broken above trendline resistance and formed a higher low at 0.0105 BTC upon retesting this resistance as support. As mentioned last week, we are watching for a Daily close above 0.012 BTC on significant volume as a signal for the cyclical bottom being in.

Tron:

TRX/BTC

Daily:

4H:

Price: $0.037 (435 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.47bn (289,825 BTC)

Thoughts: Tron continues to look bullish and my margin long positions are paying off. From the Daily chart, we can see that price broke out above 4-month trendline resistance last week, with volume continuing to rise. However, price rejected at the 360-day moving average, but remains firmly above prior resistance turned support at 400 satoshis. In fact, Tron seems to have begun its own parabolic advance on the Daily timeframe, with the rally becoming steeper over the past few days.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see levels of resistance becoming support on the ascent, and I have marked out 500 satoshis as my target for this next leg.

Cardano:

ADA/BTC

Daily:

Price: $0.093 (1094 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.418bn (283,616 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally, we come to Cardano, and there is a beautifully clean pattern playing out for those who enjoy trading patterns. We can see that ADA broke above trendline resistance a couple of weeks ago on good volume, and retraced to form a higher low. This rounded, protracted higher low is forming the Eve to early May’s Adam, with 1220 satoshis as the neckline for a breakout. There is also confluence of the 200-day moving average at this level, and, as such, a breakout above this level will likely be followed by dynamic expansion towards the 360-day moving average.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below.