Market Outlook #17

Market Outlook #17 (6th January 2019)

Happy New Year, everyone! Welcome to the 17th Market Outlook, and the first of 2019. Having taken a two-week break over Christmas, it seems I missed a lot of interesting action; in particular, that of Ethereum, as we’ll discuss shortly. Overall, it looks to me like the signals that appeared in  early December in anticipation of short-term reversals are finally bearing fruit across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll cover the past couple of weeks of price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as Stratis and Komodo. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3901

Market Cap: $68.135bn

Thoughts: So, it’s been a good three weeks since the last Market Outlook, in which I suggested that a short-term bottom was nearby. Since then, Bitcoin has moved from ~$3200 to just shy of $4400 and back to around $3700. Price then consolidated after the period of volatility and has now found short-term resistance at $4115 (a level of prior resistance), with higher-lows forming with each test; this, in essence, is an ascending triangle, but volume is currently flat, so we can’t be 100% confident in a breakout to the upside.

That being said, the 1H chart clearly shows a lot of swing highs in the $4100 region that remain unswept, and with price having already cleared the swing-low at $3875, it is likely that we will see continued bullish price-action. However, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a false breakout to the downside, with price looking to trade inside the 1H bullish orderblock at $3825 prior to making any further upwards progress…

Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $153.49 (0.0399 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.943bn (4,162,730 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum has experienced a tremendous reversal, having swept the September lows at ~0.027 BTC early in December. The Weekly shows us that price failed to break the long-term support at ~0.023 BTC, and the reluctance to make new lows has led us to a near-60% rally against Bitcoin. In the process of rallying, ETH has broken through numerous short-term resistance levels on significant volume, with the most important move occuring towards the end of 2018, when price broke above 0.034 BTC, thus breaking the bearish market structure. Price has since held that level, moving up through the resistance at 0.0375 BTC. Volume is declining on the Daily, however, suggesting that this current leg may be overextended. I would expect a period of relief, in which price moves back towards 0.036 BTC; but, make no mistake, it is very much likely we have found the cyclical bottom for ETH/BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.35 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $840.794mn (219,575 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has had a more relaxed few weeks, but also seems to have found a bottom. The Weekly shows us that price remains within the bullish orderblock from October/November 2017, failing to break below the support at 0.0111 BTC despite the extended downtrend. This downtrend has now been broken, as is clear from the Daily, and it looks as though an Adam & Eve bottom is forming with a neckline at ~0.0135 BTC. I expect Monero to take the reigns from Ethereum soon and rally towards the support turned resistance at 0.016 BTC. But first, we need a close above 0.0141 BTC to confirm the bullish market structure.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.07 (27939 satoshis)

Market Cap: $106.086mn (27,705 BTC)

Thoughts: Any regular reader of this blog will know that I am very fond of Stratis, having mentioned it in multiple posts. Around Christmas, Stratis experienced a huge buyup, after spending some time trading below range support. In that period, around a third of Stratis’ circulating supply was traded across all exchanges, and price blasted through the consolidation range, up to a peak around 42500 satoshis. In doing so, it cleared major resistance below 30k satoshis on significant volume. I would expect this area between 27-30k satoshis to become a new level of support. The recent drop-off after the peak has occured on ever-decreasing volume, suggesting that a new swing-low should soon form and, with it, a new leg up should begin.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.77 (19975 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.268mn (22,239 BTC)

Thoughts: It is somewhat rare to spot such an obvious buy as Komodo. Price has been in a large range for a long time, with rising levels of volume and clear accumulation taking place. Range resistance continues to hold at 23k satoshis, but this is one to buy on any movement back towards range support around 16k satoshis. There’s really very little else to say about this one except that the opportunity is made overt by the chart.

That concludes this instalment of Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found something of value here. Please feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #16

Market Outlook #16 (16th December 2018)

Hello, and welcome to the sixteenth instalment of Market Outlook, and the final blog post for 2018. As of tomorrow, I will be taking the remainder of the year off. That being said, I’ve got a lot of interesting material planned for the New Year, including more Coin Report and Market Outlook posts, but also some one-off ideas, like a lengthy discussion of ‘risk’ and all that comes with it; an article on passive income in the cryptosphere and its numerous pitfalls; and a post detailing my thoughts on why the price paid is the most important part of any trade or investment, particularly in this space.

But, for today, I will be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as well as taking a look at how beautifully Waves has played out. I hope you enjoy the read!

Bitcoin:

Price: $3308

Market Cap: $57.645bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that a failure to breakout above the $3750 resistance would likely send price towards $3200. From the 4H chart, we can see that a double top formed at this resistance level, and price has since remained below the short-term trendline resistance, dumping below the local low from last week. Zooming out to the Weekly, we can see that price is in a precarious position, sitting just above a swing-low that has been untouched for over a year at ~$3000. There is a high likelihood that we, at least momentarily, sweep those lows before forming any significant reversal, especially considering the orderblock that lies below it. However, volume has been decreasing as new lows are made, implying that sell pressure is decreasing and that a bottom is likely nearby…


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $39.82 (0.01218 BTC)

Market Cap: $662.031mn (202,881 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has reached an interesting spot against the Dollar this past week, finally dipping into the weekly bullish orderblock and trading below the equilibrium (50%) point of the range that formed back in summer 2017. When price last traded in this area, it was shortly followed by an injection of heavy volume and significant upwards momentum. Looking at XMR/BTC, the Weekly has broken below trendline support for the first time in two years, sweeping below the low that formed late in August, into a bullish orderblock. This breakdown from such a significant area of support is not great for bulls… but it could be price manipulation to coax retail holders into capitulation. We’ll see what the case is over the next week or two; if price can catch a bounce on high volume and break above the trendline resistance and back above the trendline support, this was likely a false breakout; if price fails to find support here, it is quite likely that we see 0.01 BTC broken.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $86.64 (0.02655 BTC)

Market Cap: $8.995bn (2,757,251 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD continues to experience decreasing volume alongside its decreasing prices, with peak sell pressure occuring weeks ago. The 4H chart shows a breakout above short-term trendline resistance, but the equal lows make me wary. I wouldn’t get too hopeful for a reversal until the Daily closes above $100. ETH/BTC, however, is in a great area for buyers, trading at an area of signficant prior resistance turned support. Price is still trading below trendline resistance, but a period of high volume during the dump to 0.0245 BTC indicates that this may have been the bottom against Bitcoin. Short-term support has formed at 0.0258 BTC, but it will take a higher time-frame close above 0.028 BTC before this could be confirmed as a bottom.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $2.47 (75502 satoshis)

Market Cap: $246.898mn (75,502 BTC)

Thoughts: I first mentioned Waves in this Market Outlook series in the 10th instalment, when it formed a double bottom below 25k satoshis. Following this, I mentioned it a couple of weeks later, in the ‘Altcoin Special‘ post. Prices then bounced from the low-volume selloff, breaking out of the downtrend on high volume. In the 14th Market Outlook, prices were above 35k satoshis, and we have since seen a continuation of the reversal, with a steep increase over the past week. Waves is now trading above 75k satoshis, over 3x where it was in that first post, in the depths of a macro bear market. Opportunities are everywhere for further price-action such as this to follow. Selling any positions in Waves here is probably a wise idea, given the heavy resistance ahead.

That concludes this sixteenth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. See you in the New Year!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #15

Market Outlook #15 (9th December 2018)

Welcome to the fifteenth instalment of the Market Outlook series. We’ve had some noteworthy price-action over the past week across-the-board, with some short-term reversals looking imminent after a period of prolonged bleeding. In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum and ZCash.

On with the show:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3628

Market Cap: $63.18bn

Thoughts: I have opted to only post the hourly chart for BTC/USD this week, as this is where all of the action is taking place. Price broke below the support at ~$3750 and made new lows, bottoming out at a little below $3300; all the while, it continued to respect the short-term trendline resistance that had formed. Since finding a local bottom, price has experienced significant volume on two buyups that have caused a series of higher lows and higher highs to form on this time-frame. The local resistance at $3476 has now become support as Bitcoin attempts a breakout from the trendline resistance. All that being said, there is still major resistance ahead at $3750 – an area which remained resistance on the most recent test. What I am looking for is more volume to come in and carry price above this significant pivot level. If we can get a higher time-frame close above $3750, that would open up the likelihood of a move back towards $4400 to target the old range highs that are sitting there. This is a big if, but if it plays out, we could well see a short-term reversal, which I would imagine will bring the rest of the market up with Bitcoin. One supporting factor to this scenario is that peak selling volume occured on the initial drop to $3750 back in late November – Bitfinex has since not experienced such a high level of sell pressure. However, failure to crack the ~$3750 resistance would undoubtedly see price trading below $3200 over the coming days.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.10 (0.01326 BTC)

Market Cap: $800.138mn (220,545 BTC)

Thoughts: XMR/BTC recently swept the local low that had held firm for ~3 months previously, but it refused to close the daily candle below that low. Price continues to trade below the trendline resistance, but, when the hourly chart is taken into consideration, it seems as though a bottom is forming at this critical support. Price bounced hard after sweeping the low but ran straight into the level of prior support now turned resistance; it refused to give way. Since, price has formed a higher low and looks to be ready to retest that resistance.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $97.19 (0.02679 BTC)

Market Cap: $10.078bn (2,778,028 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/BTC has played out very similarly to XMR/BTC over the past week, with price break below the short-term range support and experiencing a significant dump below the local low from September. Unlike Monero, Ethereum did close a daily candle below this low; but, sure enough, the following candle reclaimed the critical support level. Again like Monero, price continues to trade below short-term trendline resistance, but has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. ETH/BTC recently traded into the mitigation block at 0.0255 BTC, and looks poised to move back into the range above 0.028 BTC. A higher-time frame close within the range would indicate further upside and a reversal underway.


ZCash:

ZEC/BTC

Price: $61.53 (0.01696 BTC)

Market Cap: $333.091mn (91,811 BTC)

Thoughts: This past week, ZCash did what ZCash does best: fuck bulls and bears up in equal measure. On the news of a Coinbase Pro listing, ZCash jumped, moving above range resistance briefly before being swatted down again; but not before forming an equal ‘double top’ around 0.0223 BTC. Price then dumped straight back into the range and further, making a new all-time low against Bitcoin. This move swept the equal ‘double bottom’ that had formed at 0.016 BTC, but the daily candle closed bullish. Price has since formed a short-term uptrend. It remains to be seen whether that move was a stop-hunt or the beginnings of further downside, as price has yet to retest the support turned resistance at 0.01806 BTC. If ZCash can close the daily above this level, I believe new highs will be seen soon after.

That concludes this fifteenth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. Let’s cross our fingers for the bullish price-action that seems overdue over the next week.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.