Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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Market Outlook #11

Market Outlook #11 (17th November 2018)

Welcome to the eleventh Market Outlook.

Well… that was certainly an interesting few days. I did ask politely not to be proven wrong in my claim that we had found a bottom; alas, Bitcoin gives zero fucks. However, despite the bloodbath in BTC/USD this past week, there is a silver lining: this Market Outlook is probably the most exciting in a while for BTC, ETH and XMR, all of which had been range-bound for an age. Further, whilst there was a lot of subsequent blood in alts, the vast majority of the lows that formed in August/September seem to have held firm.

This post will deal exclusively with Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as there is a great deal to get through concerning those three. Where things get real messy is in the somewhat conflicting pictures being painted in ETH and XMR against BTC versus both against the Dollar, as we’ll see…

On with le spectacle:

Bitcoin:

Price: $5618

Market Cap: $97.644bn

Thoughts: *insert well, that escalated quickly gif*

What a week. In last week’s Market Outlook, price looked as though it had successfully retested the breakout from trendline resistance, forming a higher swing-low on the 4H chart. Fast-forward to today, and 11 months of holding above ~$5800 have been undone in a couple of 4H candles. Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see that price has now swept that previous swing-low at $5750, currently hanging above the last bullish orderblock of 2017 by a thread. There is long-term liquidity below $5400, and I would be very surprised if we don’t see that level taken on Bitfinex before catching a bounce. Just below that liquidity is a level of prior resistance at $4970. If this current Weekly candle closes at or below $5750, that’s where I think we’re headed next.

However, looking at the Daily and 4H charts, decreasing volume is apparent; perhaps this particular period of selling is running out of steam, and we may be headed for a short-term bounce back up to prior support now turned resistance between $6100-6200. That area is also the OTE retracement region (61.8%-78.6%) of this current downswing. A less extended bounce could see price move to $5850 before being slapped straight back down to new lows.

However, there is a third and more hopeful case here, and it is predicated on the next couple of weeks of price-action. What we *might* be witnessing is the creation of a Wyckoff Spring, from which we form a longer-term reversal. The liquidity below $5750 and $5400 has been the primary doubt circling my mind when considering a Bitcoin bottom above that former swing-low. It would seem that my convictions were incorrect and I should have known that, no matter what, that liquidity would be swept. The Wyckoff Spring scenario could see further capitulation towards that $5k level before a return to the range above $6k. If that isn’t what is unfolding, and we get a Weekly close here, be prepared for a hell of a fight to reclaim $6000, given the time its taken to break through it to the downside. Fingers crossed for the former, right?


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $85.82 (0.0155 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.422bn (257,607 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero is in a super interesting spot against Bitcoin and against the Dollar, for different reasons. XMR/USD shows that price has returned to the long-term accumulation range; the range that preceded the Winter bull cycle. Now, whilst this range remains in play, there really isn’t much to worry about aside from intra-day volatility, which is almost entirely predicated on Bitcoin. But the range is large enough to accomodate some volatility: we are currently 12-13% above the range support at $75, and, assuming that XMR/BTC remains stationary, even a BTC/USD move to $5k wouldn’t quite penetrate the bottom of the range. However, a Daily or (god forbid) Weekly close below this range would signify some serious capitulation, as support levels are sparse below that range low.

Now, XMR/BTC is a beauty on all time-frames, offering hope where it may be foolish to anticipate any bullish movement. XMR/BTC has been in an uptrend on the Weekly for almost two years now; it is currently trading inside two Weekly bullish orderblocks; and it is trading within a Daily bullish orderblock, also. This orderblock sits neatly below the initial breakout level – a level that continues to hold firm. I think it would take something entirely unexpected in Bitcoin’s price-action (or in Monero’s fundamentals) in order for XMR/BTC to trade below that 0.013 BTC level anytime soon.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $173.49 (0.0313 BTC)

Market Cap: $17.913bn (3,235,069 BTC)

Thoughts: If possible, Ethereum looks even more conflicted across its pairs. ETH/USD is trading a little above a Daily bullish orderblock, with the swing-low that formed in September just about holding. Given this positioning, I highly doubt that the low holds much longer, if only to allow price to trade inside the orderblock. If/when price closes below that $167 low, the next major support is at $136… that’s ~20% lower. It gets really messy if price breaks through that support level; the following support is ~$100 – a level of prior resistance. (On the lower time-frame chart, ETH looks like it might be gearing up for a short-term bounce, similar to BTC.) But fear not…

ETH/BTC is granite-like. The Weekly chart shows that price is currently consolidating within a bullish orderblock that sits at a level of prior resistance turned support. Price and volume are flat, as though ETH/BTC has no idea  what’s going on in the rest of the market. The Daily chart shows that price has held its short-term range despite all the recent market volatility; but the volume candle looks a little concerning – until you switch to 4H. The 4H confirms that ETH formed a strong bullish close on significant volume, with a move back into the range.

As a side note, this 4H chart is almost forex-like in its fuckery; we’ve got a tight consolidation range, followed by a false breakout to the upside and a subsequent breakout to the downside, followed by a return to the range.

Regardless, ETH/BTC remains more bullish than bearish, despite the short-term trendline resistance that has formed. That being said, I must highlight that any present bullishness or neutrality will swiftly be demolished if that swing-low at 0.0297 BTC gets taken out. Eyes on the following week.

That concludes the eleventh Market Outlook and what has been a fascinating few days. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read! See you next Sunday.


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Market Outlook #10

Market Outlook #10 (11th November 2018)

Hello, hello. Today marks the 10th consecutive week of publishing these Market Outlook posts, and, given that milestone, I’ve decided to write up a stonker. In the following post, I will take a look at the past week’s movement in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as usual, but will follow those up with analysis of five altcoins that have never been discussed within this series of posts. Now, it’s important to stress that the analysis is exclusively technical. That being said, the alts I’ve selected are primarily largecaps, and thus they trade with ample volume and liquidity to assure the validity of the analysis (unlike lowcaps or microcaps with equivalent charts that are more prone to deviating from what makes sense). Long story short, there’s a lot of opportunity floating around at present, and the alts I’ll be looking at in this report are Qtum, Gifto, Waves, Komodo and Wings. As you’ll see, they share many technical parallels, though I can’t vouch for such equivalence in fundamental strength.

Anyways, on with the show.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6389.16

Market Cap: $110.982bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I spoke about the low-volume pullback and trendline retest being textbook, anticipating a a bounce this past week. We got the bounce but price is still struggling to reclaim the ~$6550 level, which is critical in shifting short-term market structure from its present chop to a bullish state. The key support remains around $6300, and that level has held despite the more recent pullback from the short-term resistance. We have also formed a higher swing-low, which should serve to drive price above that significant pivot level. The Daily chart looks as though a reversal is imminent – perhaps in December we’ll see that resistance at $8500 tested with the launch of Bakkt acting as a catalyst. The overall picture remains positive with key support intact.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $103.35 (0.0162 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.711bn (268,508 BTC)

Thoughts: The Daily XMR/BTC chart is very interesting, as we managed to close above the recent swing-high at 0.017 BTC on rising volume, but swiftly lost all ground and returned to the short-term range. Volume on the pullback, however, has been decreasing with each day, with price now trading inside a bullish orderblock above resistance turned support at the breakout level of 0.0155 BTC. This is a critical turning point. The volume action implies that we should form a higher-low around here and make another attempt at breaking out of the range, and, ideally, maintaining the breakout level.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $211.75 (0.033 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.838bn (3,426,123 BTC)

Thoughts: Last week, I mentioned that the unusually low volatility would likely be followed by dynamic movement. Ethereum has led the charge regarding price-action this past week, with an explosive breakout from the range on significant volume. This has occured against the Dollar and against Bitcoin, and both breakout levels have held firm. The recent pullback on ETH/USD has been on near-zero volume, and a series of higher-highs and higher-lows have been formed, confirming bullish market structure. Given that the breakout level continues to hold, I’d expect another 10-15% move up over the next couple of weeks.


Qtum:

QTUM/USD

QTUM/BTC

Price: $3.89 (60978 satoshis)

Market Cap: $345.987mn (54,288 BTC)

Thoughts: I want to preface this section by stating that I have absolutely no idea what Qtum is. Now that that’s out of the way, behold the beautiful chart and the immense upside potential on a serious largecap. Rarely do you see the possibility of a 2000% return on a $345mn altcoin, but that is exactly what is presented to us here. A clearly defined accumulation range is apparent on the QTUM/USD chart, with one 24-hour period trading almost $10mn-worth of Qtum. Further, QTUM/BTC has been range-bound for 10 weeks, and is currently trading inside the bullish orderblock that preceded its insane bull cycle in December 2017. Volume has been rising for each of the past three months, and range resistance and support continue to be respected. Bullish.


Gifto:

GTO/USD

GTO/BTC

Price: $0.06 (992 satoshis)

Market Cap: $33.617mn (5,274 BTC)

Thoughts: Similarly to Qtum, but on a smaller scale, Gifto is also experiencing a large amount of volume within a tight price range. Where QTUM traded 2.69% of its circulating supply in one day, Gifto traded almost 9%, and is currently priced only ~20% above its all-time low. There are clear levels of resistance to potentially set sells at should a reversal come, and there is over 1500% of growth to occur before the USD all-time high gets broken. Again, not a clue what Gifto is, but if it even has remotely decent fundamentals, this looks like a solid buy.


Waves:

WAVES/USD

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.75 (27328 satoshis)

Market Cap: $175.377mn (27,328 BTC)

Thoughts: Now, a more familiar altcoin: Waves. Waves is currently trading at clear long-term support against the Dollar, with very little support beneath. Should price fall and close below $1.60, it would make sense to exit any position. But, for now, that level continues to hold strong. WAVES/BTC is currently experiencing a near-zero volume pullback towards short-term support around 24000 satoshis. That’s only ~10% below current prices, which is minor downside risk.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $1.17 (18423 satoshis)

Market Cap: $129.882mn (20,376 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo is in a really promising area, current trading at the lowest price that preceded the January highs. KMD/BTC has formed a range between 14k-22k satoshis, and experienced ~$10.4mn worth of supply exchanging hands within a few days, with price respecting range resistance. Price has since returned to the equilibrium of the range on low volume.


Wings:

WINGS/BTC

Price: $0.19 (3000 satoshis)

Market Cap: $17.148mn (2,691 BTC)

Thoughts: Wings is another familiar altcoin, and one that is exhibiting perfect price-action. Firstly, price formed a 10-week range, during which volume was constant. Then price broke out of the range on very high volume, with 13.75% of the circulating supply being trading during the breakout. Price then remained above the breakout level, formed a lower swing-high, and then retested the the former resistance now turned support. This recent retest saw price bounce hard on even higher volume, with 24.3% of circulating supply traded, and a clear series of higher-lows and higher-highs have formed. Most bullish.

That concludes the milestone 10th Market Outlook. I think this has been an eye-opening one for myself regarding current opportunities amongst largecaps, as I tend to stick to midcaps and lowcaps. I hope you’ve found some value in it, too! Let me know what you think.


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