Market Outlook #10

Market Outlook #10 (11th November 2018)

Hello, hello. Today marks the 10th consecutive week of publishing these Market Outlook posts, and, given that milestone, I’ve decided to write up a stonker. In the following post, I will take a look at the past week’s movement in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as usual, but will follow those up with analysis of five altcoins that have never been discussed within this series of posts. Now, it’s important to stress that the analysis is exclusively technical. That being said, the alts I’ve selected are primarily largecaps, and thus they trade with ample volume and liquidity to assure the validity of the analysis (unlike lowcaps or microcaps with equivalent charts that are more prone to deviating from what makes sense). Long story short, there’s a lot of opportunity floating around at present, and the alts I’ll be looking at in this report are Qtum, Gifto, Waves, Komodo and Wings. As you’ll see, they share many technical parallels, though I can’t vouch for such equivalence in fundamental strength.

Anyways, on with the show.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6389.16

Market Cap: $110.982bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I spoke about the low-volume pullback and trendline retest being textbook, anticipating a a bounce this past week. We got the bounce but price is still struggling to reclaim the ~$6550 level, which is critical in shifting short-term market structure from its present chop to a bullish state. The key support remains around $6300, and that level has held despite the more recent pullback from the short-term resistance. We have also formed a higher swing-low, which should serve to drive price above that significant pivot level. The Daily chart looks as though a reversal is imminent – perhaps in December we’ll see that resistance at $8500 tested with the launch of Bakkt acting as a catalyst. The overall picture remains positive with key support intact.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $103.35 (0.0162 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.711bn (268,508 BTC)

Thoughts: The Daily XMR/BTC chart is very interesting, as we managed to close above the recent swing-high at 0.017 BTC on rising volume, but swiftly lost all ground and returned to the short-term range. Volume on the pullback, however, has been decreasing with each day, with price now trading inside a bullish orderblock above resistance turned support at the breakout level of 0.0155 BTC. This is a critical turning point. The volume action implies that we should form a higher-low around here and make another attempt at breaking out of the range, and, ideally, maintaining the breakout level.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $211.75 (0.033 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.838bn (3,426,123 BTC)

Thoughts: Last week, I mentioned that the unusually low volatility would likely be followed by dynamic movement. Ethereum has led the charge regarding price-action this past week, with an explosive breakout from the range on significant volume. This has occured against the Dollar and against Bitcoin, and both breakout levels have held firm. The recent pullback on ETH/USD has been on near-zero volume, and a series of higher-highs and higher-lows have been formed, confirming bullish market structure. Given that the breakout level continues to hold, I’d expect another 10-15% move up over the next couple of weeks.


Qtum:

QTUM/USD

QTUM/BTC

Price: $3.89 (60978 satoshis)

Market Cap: $345.987mn (54,288 BTC)

Thoughts: I want to preface this section by stating that I have absolutely no idea what Qtum is. Now that that’s out of the way, behold the beautiful chart and the immense upside potential on a serious largecap. Rarely do you see the possibility of a 2000% return on a $345mn altcoin, but that is exactly what is presented to us here. A clearly defined accumulation range is apparent on the QTUM/USD chart, with one 24-hour period trading almost $10mn-worth of Qtum. Further, QTUM/BTC has been range-bound for 10 weeks, and is currently trading inside the bullish orderblock that preceded its insane bull cycle in December 2017. Volume has been rising for each of the past three months, and range resistance and support continue to be respected. Bullish.


Gifto:

GTO/USD

GTO/BTC

Price: $0.06 (992 satoshis)

Market Cap: $33.617mn (5,274 BTC)

Thoughts: Similarly to Qtum, but on a smaller scale, Gifto is also experiencing a large amount of volume within a tight price range. Where QTUM traded 2.69% of its circulating supply in one day, Gifto traded almost 9%, and is currently priced only ~20% above its all-time low. There are clear levels of resistance to potentially set sells at should a reversal come, and there is over 1500% of growth to occur before the USD all-time high gets broken. Again, not a clue what Gifto is, but if it even has remotely decent fundamentals, this looks like a solid buy.


Waves:

WAVES/USD

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.75 (27328 satoshis)

Market Cap: $175.377mn (27,328 BTC)

Thoughts: Now, a more familiar altcoin: Waves. Waves is currently trading at clear long-term support against the Dollar, with very little support beneath. Should price fall and close below $1.60, it would make sense to exit any position. But, for now, that level continues to hold strong. WAVES/BTC is currently experiencing a near-zero volume pullback towards short-term support around 24000 satoshis. That’s only ~10% below current prices, which is minor downside risk.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $1.17 (18423 satoshis)

Market Cap: $129.882mn (20,376 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo is in a really promising area, current trading at the lowest price that preceded the January highs. KMD/BTC has formed a range between 14k-22k satoshis, and experienced ~$10.4mn worth of supply exchanging hands within a few days, with price respecting range resistance. Price has since returned to the equilibrium of the range on low volume.


Wings:

WINGS/BTC

Price: $0.19 (3000 satoshis)

Market Cap: $17.148mn (2,691 BTC)

Thoughts: Wings is another familiar altcoin, and one that is exhibiting perfect price-action. Firstly, price formed a 10-week range, during which volume was constant. Then price broke out of the range on very high volume, with 13.75% of the circulating supply being trading during the breakout. Price then remained above the breakout level, formed a lower swing-high, and then retested the the former resistance now turned support. This recent retest saw price bounce hard on even higher volume, with 24.3% of circulating supply traded, and a clear series of higher-lows and higher-highs have formed. Most bullish.

That concludes the milestone 10th Market Outlook. I think this has been an eye-opening one for myself regarding current opportunities amongst largecaps, as I tend to stick to midcaps and lowcaps. I hope you’ve found some value in it, too! Let me know what you think.


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Market Outlook #9

Market Outlook #9 (4th November 2018)

Today’s Market Outlook sees us return to some short-term analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, followed by a couple of opportunities I’ve spotted in Vertcoin and Shield. In last week’s Market Outlook, I omitted analysis of ‘the usual three’ in place of a handful of altcoins, as market conditions were unusually stable. I can’t say things have gotten much more exciting since, but there are a few points-of-interest to discuss. The exciting price-and-volume-action seems to be occuring more frequently amongst lowcaps and midcaps at present, and, as such, I believe there is a lot to look forward to this winter in that sector of the market. Vertcoin and Shield are just two of the plethora of opportunities I’m seeing on a daily basis.

Anyway, on with the show:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6411

Market Cap: $111.288bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin’s breakout from the long-term trendline resistance has been followed by a low-volume pullback and trendline retest. This is textbook. In doing so, it has receded into the 4H bullish orderblock that led to the initial breakout, and has since formed short-term trendline resistance which it is battling with at present. A break and close on the 4H above $6500 would shift short-term market structure to bullish from its present bearish state.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $106.57 (0.0167 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.763bn (276,924 BTC)

Thoughts: XMR/USD, as anticipated in Market Outlook #6, has formed a new range with resistance at prior support of $111. Following Bitcoin, it has since moved back into the 4H orderblock and bounced on gradually increasing volume. At present, we are still very much seeing chop, and the $111 level would need to be reclaimed in order for things to begin looking bullish again. Switching to XMR/BTC, the most important level (0.016 BTC) continues to hold strong, with a new range having formed with it as support and 0.017 BTC as range resistance. As long as that original breakout level holds, market structure is bullish.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $200.73 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $20.673bn (3,246,326 BTC)

Thoughts: Lots of clean market structure on ETH/USD. Liquidity has been cleared below and above short-term swing-lows and highs, respectively, and price is currently grappling with a significant level of resistance turned support and once again turned resistance at ~$203. All of this also just happens to be occuring inside a 4H bullish orderblock. ETH/BTC is even more interesting, despite what seems on the surface to be a boring chart. All I needed to highlight here was the longest and tightest range of price-action in recent history. ETH/BTC has been stuck between 0.0306 BTC and 0.032 BTC for over 3 weeks; a range of around 4.5%. Extended periods of low volatility are most often followed by extreme volatility…


Vertcoin:

Price: $0.66 (10454 satoshis)

Market Cap: $31.097mn (4,883 BTC)

Thoughts: Vertcoin is among the oldest cryptocurrencies to exist. As I discuss in my book, it was the first coin I ever invested my own money into back in February 2014. It has since experienced numerous market cycles, and I believe we are on the cusp of a new one. Price has dropped off from its winter 2017 highs back to the low of August 2017. A tight range has formed, now lasting 12 straight weeks. Volume is low, but the duration of the range does somewhat make up for this (micro-buying over an extended period of time is one form of accumulation that differs from the high-volume, single-day accumulation seen in other alts recently, like SALT). I doubt there’s been a better reward-to-risk opportunity to buy Vertcoin in a very long time.


Shield:

Price: $0.005 (88 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.863mn (450 BTC)

Thoughts: The parallels between the Vertcoin chart and this Shield chart are overt, as are the parallels in much of the altcoin market at the moment. Shield is a lower-midcap privacy coin that I wrote about in my book; more specifically, I talked about how I liked its consistency in meeting development deadlines and the specificity of its roadmap. It was, however, too expensive at the time to buy. Shield has fallen around 96% from its January highs, back to levels only traded during the initial months post-launch. It has formed a very tight range lasting almost 2 months despite its low liquidity, and is currently trading abbove its 6-month trendline resistance. As I say, Shield has very low liquidity, and this is likely due to its largest exchange listing being CoinExchange, but I think micro-buying at these levels is a good approach for anyone wanting to enter a position for the next bull cycle; a cycle that presents a near-30x opportunity in BTC.

That concludes the ninth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. As ever, feel free to leave any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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Market Outlook #8

Market Outlook #8 (28th October 2018)

Well, it seems the big three that I would usually cover in these posts took the week off. Bitcoin has had one of its least volatile weeks in recent history, and Monero and Ethereum followed suit. So, to prevent today’s Market Outlook from being an utter waste of time, I have decided to make this one an Altcoin Special. I’ll be covering 4 altcoins, from lowcaps to largecaps, all of which seem to me to present huge upside opportunity at current prices. I’ll begin with Stratis, before covering Ubiq and Synereo, and finally a special treat that came onto my radar this week: Musicoin. In last week’s Market Outlook, I talked about the massive opportunity presented by FoldingCoin, and I think Musicoin might actually be an even better buy. But we’ll get onto that later…

First, Stratis:

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.64 (25318 satoshis)

Market Cap: $162mn (25,082 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis announced this past week that the project is now a Silver Partner of Microsoft. This, naturally, led to a huge buy-up, in which 5% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours on Binance alone (~$8mn). Now, this only served to reinforce my thoughts on Stratis, and I have been buying since I first wrote about the coin in Market Outlook #1, almost two months ago. Since then, price has remained within its tight range against USD and BTC, and a near-3-month accumulation range is undoubtedly in play. I believe this past week’s buy-up was merely a precursor to an imminent reversal; a reversal that would be confirmed if price can close above the major support turned resistance around $3 (which is still almost 100% away, currently). There’s a long way to go, for sure, but the signals keep appearing.


Ubiq:

Price: $0.53 (8188 satoshis)

Market Cap: $22.542mn (3,489 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq had a very strange moment in its price-history back in April, when 12% of its supply was bought up, but macro sentiment and the pervading bear market seemed to win the fight, and price followed the rest of the market in an extended sell-off. However, even the swiftest of glances at the volume profile on the chart can tell us that there has been almost zero volume on the decline of the past few months, and capitulation seems to have occured on the one steep day of decline towards the end of August.

Since that point, price has consolidated above the 15-month trendline resistance, finding support – strangely enough – at the opening price of Ubiq’s listing on Bittrex. Funny how these things work out, isn’t it? Small volume spikes are beginning to appear within this range, and I believe buys here will be rewarded before the end of the year.


Synereo:

AMP/USD

AMP/BTC

Price: $0.046 (718 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.65mn (723 BTC)

Thoughts: Synereo is in a very interesting position at the moment. AMP/BTC has seen three consecutive market cycles with lower and lower peaks, forming a trendline resistance that spans two years. Price is also trading a little above its all-time low, and the endpoint of the trendline resistance has arrived. Poloniex delisting AMP sent it down below a short-term level of support, but, in the past week, a sign of renewed interest appeared: 9% of the circulating supply was traded last week (around $420k). That’s a lot of money to throw at a lower-midcap at such a pivotal point in its price-history.

A quick look at AMP/USD also indicates that prices are back within their long-term accumulation range; prices that have been rewarded without fail since Synereo’s inception. Reward-to-risk here is huge, as one could quite easily have a soft stop at a daily close below 500 satoshis (~30%), or you could use a fixed-risk approach like I tend to for lowcaps and midcaps. Comparing the two charts, peaks in AMP/USD have gotten progressively higher whilst the inverse has occured against BTC. I would imagine that, whenever the next cycle occurs, this may rebalance.


Musicoin:

Price: $0.004 (57 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.159mn (646 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally we come to what I feel is the highest reward-to-risk opportunity I’ve seen in a while; or at least one of a handful. There is very little I need to paint on the chart except that over a third of the supply was traded in the past two weeks, with 20% being traded a few days ago. This amounts to around $1.7mn of MUSIC that exchanged hands recently. Couple this with the fact that price is trading ~10% above its all-time low, and has been holding that level for 10 weeks now, and you have a strong case for buying.

There is one weakness that I must point out, however, and that is the constant supply emission. Roughly 1.6mn MUSIC come into existence daily, or ~580mn a year. This equals to an annual inflation rate of a little over 50%. Now, this is by no means a deal-breaker, especially given the upside potential, but it’s something to consider. At current prices, daily supply emission is 0.91 BTC or a little under $6,000. To put this in perspective, MUSIC has traded an average of $80,782 daily for the past month. Its average daily volume covers its average daily supply emission by over 1300%.

I hope this eighth Market Outlook has been informative. I rather enjoyed not analysing BTC, ETH and XMR for once. Feel free to post any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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Market Outlook #7

Market Outlook #7 (20th October 2018)

This seventh Market Outlook comes to you a day early, as I’ll be away tomorrow, but, trust me, it’s a good one; and there’s certainly plenty to talk about. I’ve been off the grid for the past three days, and it seems a lot has ocurred, particularly concerning volume across-the-board. In fact, one of the two smaller altcoins that I’ll be covering has exhibited a similar signal to that of SALT in last week’s Market Outlook; SALT has since moved ~50%. As per usual, I’ll take a look at the past week’s movements in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum. The two smaller alts in question are Covesting and FoldingCoin.

Let’s crack on.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6587

Market Cap: $114.166bn

Thoughts: Tether, without doubt, played a large part in the price-action over the past few days, with an 8% drop in the ‘stablecoin’ causing a massive spike in BTC/USD on Bitfinex, and a mass price disparity across exchanges. However, news is often just the justification for price-action, and, as I mentioned in Market Outlook #6, we were most definitely due some volatility. This volatility caused a breakout above long-term trendline resistance, with price closing above the resistance on the daily, as can be seen on the first chart. Liquidity was dipped into above recent highs, and price has since dropped off, right back to the trendline. This low-volume pullback and retest seems to be succesful, for now, as price has rebounded a little after the initial retest. The breakout itself was also on the highest volume Bitfinex has had in months.

I have marked out many significant short-term levels on the 4H, to illustrate how often support has become resistance and vice-versa in recent price-history. Given the movements in price and volume over the past few days, it would seem to me that we are indeed on the cusp of a longer-term reversal.


Monero:

Price: $104.03 (0.0161 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.707bn (265,219 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero continues to hold the range it has formed, with the movements since August now looking very much like a bottom is in. The initial high-volume breakout above the multi-month downtrend has been followed by a low-volume pullback, and price has now consolidated above $100. This is, of course, the level to watch; any sustained movement below would negate this premise and new lows would likely be imminent.

But, with this range continuing to be held, a breakout to the upside is far more likely, in my opinion. Also, we saw a high-volume buy-up on Bitfinex this past week: though related to the Tether situation, this provides further confirmation that smart money is accumulating within this new range. I’ve marked out a significant level of resistance from this time last year (the final level to give way prior to the bull-run of Dec/Jan)… eerily close to the new support that has formed, isn’t it?


Ethereum:

Price: $207.07 (0.0318 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.263bn (3,275,416 BTC)

Thoughts: Zooming out on ETH/USD paints a picture of prime opportunity. Price has remained above the 5-month trendline resistance, and Bitfinex just experienced its equal highest volume for Ethereum (both instances within weeks of each other). Around 1% of the circulating supply (~$210mn) was traded during this 24-hour period… on one exchange… ’nuff said.


Covesting:

Price: $0.79 (12203 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.8mn (2,136 BTC)

Thoughts: Though these posts tend to stay away from any fundamental analysis, it is important to note that Covesting received their DLT License this past week; that was the news that acted as the catalyst for a breakout on high volume from a former accumulation range. The breakout comprised of around 5% of circulating supply being traded across a couple of days, with a strong daily close above recent resistance around 10k satoshis. The ~100% candle did, however, rocket price up into another level of resistance at 15k satoshis; a natural area for some consolidation after such a volatile move. The resistance of the previous range could now become a level of support, and perhaps a platform from which we will see further expansion towards the all-time high at ~23k satoshis. In truth, I believe any buys around here or below will likely be heavily rewarded over the coming months.


FoldingCoin:

Price: $0.003 (46 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.025mn (313 BTC)

Thoughts: And, at last, we come to the potential goldmine. In last week’s Market Outlook, I commented on the volume activity on SALT. Today, we find similar activity on FoldingCoin… 21.4% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours (~$422k). Having been delisted from Poloniex, FLDC has suffered an extended decline over the past months, but has consolidated above 40 satoshis on its only exchange, Bittrex. Being listed on only one exchange is not ideal. We don’t like single points of failure. But, the reward is sufficient enough for me to take on this risk. Upside potential is well over 1000% in Bitcoin, let alone USD, and the fact that over a fifth of its supply was traded so recently suggests to me that smart money is buying here, and buying heavily.

That concludes the seventh Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Let me know your thoughts in the Comments, and I’ll do my best to answer any questions you might have.


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Market Outlook #6

Market Outlook #6 (14th October 2018)

On today’s Market Outlook, I cover the usual three along with two very promising high-caps: Ark and SALT.  But first, let’s just make a note of how wrong I was in last week’s Market Outlook. Actually, I was right; we finally got some dynamic movement… it just happened to be in the wrong direction. Just when you think all is running smoothly, the cryptosphere forces you to re-evaluate. It wasn’t all bad though, as we’ll discuss; and past experience leads me to believe this is a final bit of false fuckery before those levels are reclaimed. But, all in all, we are in far more of a precarious position now – across-the-board – than when I was sat writing Market Outlook #5.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6350

Market Cap: $109.990bn

Thoughts: Now, if you remember from last week’s chart, price was consolidating within a lower time-frame triangle, and I was anticipating a trendline breakout to the outside. We instead got a breakout to the downside, but on no significant volume and the trough of the sell-off held above the short-term trendline support. Bitcoin is giving us mixed signals, in short. I’ve mapped out the various double and triple bottoms and tops, to point to where the liquidity is, and thus where price may be looking to move. If price can refrain from closing the daily below $6100 (where that recent double-bottom lies), I would expect an upwards breakout from this longer-term triangle and a reclamation of $6700. Ideally, in fact, we’d want to see that double-bottom wicked below and rejected to provide fuel for the move up. However, we are lingering dangerously close to the mid-term liquidity at ~$5750, and if last week’s momentum can carry price to a daily close below $6100, I would imagine we see further breakdown from there fairly quickly. Don’t make me look a fool, Bitcoin; I still feel it in my bones that $5750 was the bottom.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $102.70 (0.0163 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.693bn (269,153 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero seems to be painting two different pictures depending on whether one is looking at XMR/USD or XMR/BTC. The USD chart has broken the short-term uptrend on mid volume, with the consolidation range now expected to become a level of resistance ~$112. That being said, stops have clearly been swept below recent swing-lows, but the initial breakout level has held firm. Two possible trajectories from here are: either, a retest of the $112 level from which price broke down; or, a couple of days of consolidation in this ~$103 zone before another leg down to test the $90 swing-low. However, when we look at the XMR/BTC chart, we see much more to be positive about. The range between 0.016 BTC and 0.019 BTC has held despite the breakdown, price is still above the 6-month downtrend and the volume on the dump was minimal. That 0.016 BTC level is critical, regardless; if that gives way, I would expect another 10-15% dump to test the lows at ~0.0135 BTC.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $200.64 (0.032 BTC)

Market Cap: $20.578bn (3,284,677 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD is very interesting: price remains above a 9-month downtrend, has formed a range between $180-250, and experienced a sell-off of near-equal volume to that of the initial breakout. Despite the high-volume sell-off, the range was held and the $165 low remains intact. Given the volume on the dump, I would have expected a deeper drop. That being said, it definitely doesn’t look pretty on the daily. Switch over to ETH/BTC (and I have illustrated a 4H chart because there is a lot going on), and we can see the 4H breaker remains strong. The swing-low at 0.031 BTC was swept but the breaker held, and now price has reversed. 0.03 BTC is now the most significant short-term level for Ethereum. I am leaning towards it holding, as the volume on the preceding swing-low (0.0313 BTC) was higher than the volume that led to the ultimate low, indicating a shortage of sellers. However, where there were previously few levels of resistance in Ethereum’s way for short-term upside movement, there are now many. Plus, concerning volume; the short-term reversal since that low has been on decreasing volume. Shaky ground.


SALT:

Price: $0.56 (8953 satoshis)

Market Cap: $41.163mn (6,543 BTC)

Thoughts: Let’s venture into brighter territory. SALT piqued my interest because over 18% of its circulating supply was traded in 24 hours a short while ago; its highest single-day volume (on Binance) of all-time. Not only that, but with the volume came a breakout above an 8-week, tight accumulation range. Price has since dipped back towards the range, and I am certainly buying. Major resistance is at 30000 satoshis.


Ark:

Price: $0.72 (11359 satoshis)

Market Cap: $75.577mn (12,006 BTC)

Thoughts: Similarly to SALT, Ark has formed a tight accumulation range, with most trading activity occuring between 10-12k satoshis. Range resistance is at 14.5k satoshis, and range support at 8k satoshis. Volume is slowly rising, and upside potential is huge. All we need to see is a SALT-esque breakout on volume to confirm the beginnings of a new bull cycle.

That concludes Market Outlook #6. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Feel free to leave any questions or feedback in the Comments section!


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