Market Outlook #27

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #27 (17th March 2019)

Welcome to the 27th Market Outlook; and what a week we’ve had. Across-the-board, we’ve seen continuations of bullish reversals, along with some periods of relief for altcoins that have already moved above and beyond their accumulation ranges. Critically, however, we have seen the market as a whole break above the 15-month downtrend that has been capping prices since January 2018, as can be seen from the chart printed below:

Despite the steadily rising volume and the breakout above trendline resistance, it is important to remember that we remain range-bound for the time being, until Total Market Cap closes above ~$145bn. Further, we still have half a day to go before we can look at the Weekly chart to see if we’ve closed above trendline resistance on that timeframe; for now, the Daily does look bullish for the market, overall.

Now, today’s post will be a little longer than usual, as I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Dash and Ubiq and breaking down the opportunity present in adToken.

It’s a lot to get through, so let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $4070

Market Cap: $70.937bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that BTC would need to break above $4050 on high volume to confirm a return to bullish market structure on the 4H, as well as an indication that a retest of the local high at ~$4300 was imminent.

This past week, we saw a bullish continuation of the momentum from the previous week on significant volume, with prior resistance now at $4070 now looking like support. Trendline support remains intact on the 4H, as does the 200MA acting as support as price continues to trend upwards.

That said, it is important to remember the range we remain within, which is why I’ve provided the Daily chart. Until we get a Daily close above $4400 on solid volume, it is wise to assume the range will remain in play, and thus there may be significant overhead resistance this coming week. I do believe we’ll retest the $4300 high from last month over the next few days; whether we close above it is not something I’m all too certain on. Perhaps we’ll need to consolidate around that high for a while before breaking above it with any serious momentum…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $140.28 (0.0348 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.767bn (3,672,639 BTC)

Thoughts: Looking at the Weekly chart for ETH/USD, we can see that price is breaking above the 20-week moving average for the first time since February 2018. Price rejected a move above it a couple of weeks ago, but now looks set to close above it. We can also see from the period prior to 2017 on the chart that a Weekly close above the 20MA preceded the subsequent 12-month bull run.

Looking now at ETH/BTC, the successful retest of the 200-day moving average has been completed, with price now looking to break above 15-month trendline resistance. A higher timeframe close above this trendline would indicate to me that the local high (and support turned resistance) around 0.042 BTC will be retested and likely broken above. However, looking at the 4H, price remains range-bound between 0.034 and 0.036 BTC, recently rejecting a move above the 200MA. That being said, I expect a reclamation of 0.0352 BTC on the 4H early this coming week, with bullish continuation towards range resistance by the Weekly close.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.26 (0.1325 BTC)

Market Cap: $897.888mn (223,360 BTC)

Thoughts: We are now 3 months into range-bound accumulation for Monero, but this past week saw higher 24H volume than any during this period. Short-term support has formed at 0.0125 BTC but price remains capped by range resistance at 0.0136 BTC.


Dash:

DASH/USD

DASH/BTC

Price: $91.26 (0.0226 BTC)

Market Cap: $793.292mn (197,784 BTC)

Thoughts: A few weeks ago, I broke down Dash’s price-history in a Market Outlook, mentioning that it seemed to be setting up for a bullish reversal, similar to Litecoin’s. This past week, we saw Dash break out of its consolidation on significant volume, but price remains capped by the 200-day moving average. The last couple of days have seen price pull back on low volume, and I’d expect this pullback to be followed by a break above the Daily 200MA towards an area of support turned resistance at 0.025 BTC.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.25 (6215 satoshis)

Market Cap: $10.621mn (2,648 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks set to close the Weekly above trendline resistance for the first time in 15 months, having already broken above this key resistance on the Daily with significant volume. Price has reclaimed prior support at 5000 satoshis (an important psychological figure) but remains capped, as is the case by many altcoins at the moment, by the Daily 200MA. A close above this level would open up a move towards long-term resistance at 10,000 satoshis – another important psychological figure.


adToken:

ADT/BTC

Price: $0.007 (173 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.16mn (1,035 BTC)

Thoughts: Whilst combing through charts this past week, I spotted this beauty. I have no idea about the fundamentals of adToken, but there is clearly significant interest at current prices and those prices happen to be near all-time lows. With the changing tide in the market at the moment, I have decided to take my first solely TA-based position in many, many months.

From the ADT/BTC Weekly chart, we can see that price is range-bound between its all-time low at ~130 satoshis and range resistance at ~260 satoshis. This range preceded the move towards 2400 satoshis in January 2018.

Now, looking at the Daily, we can see that the range has been in play for 214 days, which is insane. There have been frequent buy-ups during that time. Regarding a trade, I have entered at current prices, with a soft stop on a Daily close below 120 satoshis and a first target of ~550 satoshis. Let’s see how this one plays out…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. If you’ve found some value in the read, please do share it on Twitter etc. and feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


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Market Outlook #26

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #26 (10th March 2019)

Welcome to the 26th Market Outlook.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Ark.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3975

Market Cap: $69.884bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that Bitcoin was trading within what was effectively no man’s land, with market structure on the 4H chart bearish but resistance turned support at ~$3750 holding firm.

We have since seen price return to more bullish movements with a rejection away from moving below this support level. That said, as can be seen on the Daily chart, volume has been declining somewhat this past week. Overall, price remains capped by the range resistance below $4300.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see the 200MA acting as support, with price failing to close below it for the past month. Plus, whilst we have seen a 4H close above $3950, thus reclaiming the level lost back at the end of February, we now need to see some follow through; a move back above $4050 on significant volume would suggest another test of the range resistance is imminent.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $136.38 (0.0346 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.344bn (3,647,820 BTC)

Thoughts: As mentioned in last week’s post, ETH/BTC was setting up for a retest of its Daily 200MA. This retest occurred this past week and price rejected a move below, cementing my mid-term bullish outlook for Ethereum.

ETH/USD, however, remains capped by its Daily 200MA, and also by support turned resistance at ~$170. That said, it is clear to see the ascending triangle forming, with 3-month trendline support intact. Looking at the 4H, I expect to see price break above short-term resistance at $144 this coming week, and for $170 to be retested before the end of the month.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.52 (0.01285 BTC)

Market Cap: $851.041mn (216,518 BTC)

Thoughts: I wonder which Market Outlook it’ll be when I can finally provide more here than the now-expected “Monero remains in accumulation.” Perhaps before the end of the month, but, to be honest, I’m quite happy with Monero remaining range-bound for as long as it needs to. Importantly, volume remains high.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.59 (15333 satoshis)

Market Cap: $64.761mn (16,463 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark looks to be leading the pack amongst the smaller large-cap altcoins, which is where I believe the profits from the current movements in alts like Litecoin and BNB will flow to over the coming weeks.

Price continues to make higher-highs and higher-lows on the Daily chart, remaining well above the Daily 200MA. Support turned resistance at ~18,500 satoshis is currently capping price, with no higher timeframe close above this level. I fully expect this high to be taken out sooner rather than later, with subsequent resistance forming at ~26,000 satoshis.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!

Do feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #25

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #25 (3rd March 2019)

Good afternoon, and welcome to the 25th Market Outlook. A violent end to last week has led to some interesting changes in market structure across-the-board, though much remains looking positive for at least this month.

In today’s post, I’ll take a look at the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as LBRY Credits, which I believe may be offering a low-risk, high-reward opportunity at present.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3900

Market Cap: $67.972bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that Bitcoin was coming into multiple levels of significant resistance and that we might falter back toward the trendline support that had formed. Sunday night brought a violent dump and with it a break in market structure to the downside. This took price further than I had expected, but it remains supported by the prior area of resistance around $3780.

Nonetheless, the break in market structure cannot be ignored, and price remains bearish short-term – perhaps culminating in another test of the $3780 support – unless we see a 4H close above $3990. This would be a reclamation of bullish market structure, opening up the possibility for price to retest the macro range resistance above $4300.

I did like the strong and fast initial rejection from $3780 a couple of days ago, but there was no follow-through…

This is, in essence, no man’s land, with no clear direction whilst critical support holds firm but 4H market structure remains bearish.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $135.08 (0.035 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.196bn (3,678,624 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum has dropped off from the high it formed last week, now looking at retesting the Daily 200MA. Declining volume on this pullback indicates that this is simply relief prior to another leg up. If the 200MA gives way despite price breaking above it for the first time in many months, this would suggest that the trendline support that has formed would likely also give way. I expect this will not be the case, and I remain bullish mid-term, targeting 0.05 BTC over the coming months.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.96 (0.01292 BTC)

Market Cap: $839.218mn (217,610 BTC)

Thoughts: Well, what do you know – Monero remains range-bound for another week. Today, I’ve provided the duration of the range, which is currently over 11 weeks. That is an extensive accumulation period, all of which has occured with continued high volume. Very bullish on a breakout and new bull cycle beginning sooner rather than later…


LBRY Credits:

LBC/BTC

Price: $0.02 (630 satoshis)

Market Cap: $5.235mn (1,359 BTC)

Thoughts: LBRY Credits suffered a more dramatic decline than the rest of the market, falling ~94% from its January 2018 highs but over 98% from its summer 2017 highs. This is undoubtedly due to the inflation rate during this period. However, price has now formed a strong base above 500 satoshis, with high volume buyups occurring on numerous occasions, but price remaining capped by the Daily 200MA. Support at ~620 satoshis has been reclaimed after falling in winter 2017, and entries here have ~25% downside risk, with soft stop-losses on a Daily close below 480 satoshis. An upside target of the resistance at ~1500 satoshis offers ~150% reward, making this a 6:1 opportunity.

That concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!

Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.