Market Outlook #29

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Market Outlook #29 (31st March 2019)

Afternoon, and welcome to the 29th Market Outlook.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Litecoin and discussing a low-risk, high-reward opportunity spotted in XEL.

Bitcoin:

Price: $4160

Market Cap: $73.297bn

Thoughts: As anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, this week brought a continuation of bullish momentum, with price taking out the highs formed mid-March at $4170. With these highs swept, price began to consolidate a little, turning prior short-term resistance into support at ~$4100.

We remain at the very top of the longer-term range, however, and thus caution must be urged to those getting a little too bullish; until price closes on the higher timeframes and on significant volume above $4500, there is no reason to believe the range resistance won’t hold. As such, I expect price to continue moving upwards to take out the local high at $4280, where many stops will be resting, after which we may find significant overhead resistance that necessitates a move back down towards the $4050 level.

That said, we shall cross that bridge when we get to it, and I believe the following week will be one of further bullish continuation.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $141.56 (0.03457 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.925bn (3,646,596 BTC)

Thoughts: I have provided the Weekly chart for ETH/USD to give some context as to the overhead resistance inching closer, in the form of 15-month trendline resistance. That said, we look set to close the first Weekly candle in the green above the 20-week moving average; something that has not happened since the bear market began in ETH. Declining volume does suggest we may experience a brief drop off as that trendline resistance is approached, and this lines up with my expectations for ETH/BTC.

Looking at the ETH/BTC 4H chart, we can see that price is very much still range-bound, but the recent uptrend remains intact and there is a clear divergence in the RSI, indicating underlying strength in the market. I expect price to make another attempt at 0.0352 BTC this coming week, followed by a rejection, with price falling back to the trendline before finally making a move above the short-term resistance. Ultimately, I expect to see a breakout above range resistance at 0.036 BTC in April.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.50 (0.01307 BTC)

Market Cap: $903.56mn (220,789 BTC)

Thoughts: 106 days into accumulation… partial profits from outside trades continuing to be cycled into Monero inside this range.


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

LTC/BTC

Price: $60.59 (0.0148 BTC)

Market Cap: $3.703bn (904,948 BTC)

Thoughts: So, I’ve provided a potential fractal for LTC/USD on the Weekly chart, though I do doubt that the duration of the consolidation (if this plays out) will be anywhere near the length of the previous cycle. Looking at the chart, we can see the similarities in price-action, most importantly with price experiencing a similar follow-through in momentum following the close above the Weekly 20MA.

Now, looking at the LTC/BTC chart, unlike most other alts, it seems to me that Litecoin is running out of steam, having initially led the charge forward and doubled in price since December. RSI is showing bearish divergences and volume is declining at a significant area of prior support now turned resistance. I am expecting a move back toward 0.0125 BTC before any further upside.


XEL:

XEL/BTC

Price: $0.03 (785 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.944mn (719 BTC)

Thoughts: Given the slowly shifting sentiment and reversion to bullish market structure on alts, I am becoming more and more open to taking positions purely based on technicals (as I showed with the ADT position I opened following Market Outlook #27)

Similarly, here I have spotted a high-reward, low-risk opportunity in XEL, cemented by the recent volume spike that saw almost a quarter of its supply traded inside a day, indicating significant interest. I am buying below 800 satoshis, with a soft stop-loss on a Daily close below 675 satoshis, with a target of 1500 satoshis. This is a ~6:1 reward-to-risk trade.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


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Market Outlook #22

Market Outlook #22 (10th February 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 22nd Market Outlook.

We’ve finally seen some expansive price-action after weeks of consolidation, but we certainly aren’t out of the woods yet. That being said, much of what was expected in last week’s Market Outlook has played out, and we have a number of higher timeframe bullish reversals forming.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus I’ll provide an update on the opportunity spotted in Litecoin from last week. I’ll conclude by taking a look at Vertcoin and the interesting movements its seen over the past few days.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3655

Market Cap: $64.078bn

Thoughts: Last week, I mentioned that the progressively decreasing volume on the series of trendline breaks was likely a sign that sellers were running out of steam, but that we’d need to see a high volume breakout and a higher timeframe close above $3600 to confirm a bullish reversal. We got exactly that.

Looking at the Weekly, we haven’t seen price close at a higher-high in well over a year. As such, a Weekly close above the prior swing-high ~$4400 would confirm this reversal on the higher timeframes and open up the doors to a retest of the $6k-level – but that is a long way away…

On the Hourly, we do appear to be bull-flagging, athough I place little faith in patterns on lower timeframes. Either way, I expect a period of consolidation (or perhaps even a small dip) prior to the $3800 being retested. A 4H close above this level would be very bullish for short-term price-action.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $117.46 (0.03219 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.309bn (3,373,755 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD is trailing very closely beneath the trendline resistance from April 2018. Even more significantly, we have yet to reclaim the ~$170-level; an area of prior support turned key resistance.

That being said, the 4H chart against the Dollar indicates, much like in Bitcoin, that sellers are exhausted in this area, with a high-volume breakout occuring a couple of days ago. This breakout pushed price back above the key support at $116 that was lost only a couple of weeks ago. The next area of resistance is at $135, and a breakout above here would open the doors for new local highs above $170 – and with it, reclamation of a very significant level on the Weekly.

ETH/BTC shows near-perfect symmetry in its price-action to its Dollar pair, although with the 200MA currently capping price. Numerous short-term levels of support were reclaimed after a high-volume spike sent price above 0.0323 BTC. I’m expecting a period of consolidation before further upwards momentum.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.04 (0.01315 BTC)

Market Cap: $806.287mn (220,834 BTC)

Thoughts: As has been the case for the past couple of months, Monero is lagging behind, taking things at its own leisurely pace. As such, XMR/BTC remains inside a range and there is nothing new to say about it. Interestingly, however, XMR/USD saw price close the Daily above range resistance at $47.50. I would expect the next move to be a breakout above the range in XMR/BTC, sending price against the Dollar towards that $57 resistance.


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

LTC/BTC

Price: $43.45 (0.0119 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.624bn (718,934 BTC)

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I highlighted the opportunity presenting itself in Litecoin. This past week, we saw that hypothesis confirmed, with an explosive breakout above support turned resistance at 0.01 BTC. This level, as mentioned in the previous post, has usually been the catalyst for historical bull cycles.

Against the Dollar, Litecoin has broken above short-term resistance, now turned support, at $42. It is currently lingering beneath its 200-day MA and above trendline resistance; a likely area for consolidation before further expansion.

I expect 0.0155 BTC to be the next level of resistance, and I would imagine we reach it sooner rather than later…


Vertcoin:

VTC/USD

VTC/BTC

Price: $0.27 (7418 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.050mn (3,570 BTC)

Thoughts: Much like Litecoin last week, Vertcoin is also presenting a high-reward, low-risk opportunity. Against the Dollar, price has been range-bound for the past few months, with range support having formed at the Weekly close of the peak of the previous bull cycle (around $0.20). Volume is also gradually rising…

VTC/BTC on the Weekly shows us that price is currently trading inside the long-term accumulation range. From within this range, price has seen 3 or 4 previous bull cycles.

On the Daily, we can see that the 200MA has price capped at present, despite the recent spike in price and volume. The signs of interest are all there, and this is occuring in confluence with historically-significant prices…

 

That concludes this 22nd Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. As ever, feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #21

Market Outlook #21 (3rd February 2019)

Welcome to the 21st Market Outlook. After this past week’s price-action, we certainly seem to be in a precarious and decisive position concerning the market as a whole. Much has occurred, with local support levels swept across-the-board, but there have been very interesting reactions since, particularly in Ethereum.

In today’s post, I’ll be running through the action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as taking a look at the price-history of Litecoin, determining whether we may be in for an imminent reversal…

Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3510

Market Cap: $61.484bn

Thoughts: I’ve provided the Weekly chart for Bitcoin to give a little perspective. It can be easy to get caught up in the lower timeframes when price-action is largely range-bound and ultimately indecisive. In it, we can see that price continues to trade above the Weekly 200MA, with volume declining for the past several weeks. This is highly indicative of an imminent expansion, both in volume and price. But, in which direction?

Well, we can see an untouched swing-low on the Weekly below $3000, with a meaty orderblock sitting just below it. If lower timeframe price-action points to bearishness, this is the area price will expand towards, with $2500 seeming the next level of strong support.

To colour our bias and garner a clearer idea of whether this will take place, we can look to the 4H chart. Here, we can see the symmetry in breakdowns below trendline support over the past 6 weeks. Once again, price is forming a short-term series of higher-lows, with price trending into an area of previous support turned resistance; the symmetry would suggest we get another breakdown and price takes a plunge towards new lows. However, interestingly, peak sell volume is declining with each successive move down, indicating that sellers are drying up and perhaps this symmetry will soon be shattered…

I am looking for a 4H close above $3600 to confirm a bullish reversal. A break of the current uptrend, however, will likely see us trading towards $3200 sooner rather than later.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $108.44 (0.03121 BTC)

Market Cap: $11.363bn (3,267,482 BTC)

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I expected that we’d see a breakout in one direction or another from the channel price had been constrained to, with the key support at 0.0313 BTC being the level to be swept if the breakout was bearish. We got that breakdown-and-sweep, followed by the expected retest of that level of support. However, we didn’t see the subsequent bearish reaction that I would have expected, with price instead forming a higher-low on the 4H and then making a move towards reclaiming 0.0313 BTC. This would indicate that the breakdown was perhaps false. I would like to see a 4H close above 0.032 BTC to confirm this reversal. However, this current uptrend is occuring on declining volume, which is a worry for bulls.

Looking at ETH/USD, we see confirmation of the overall bullish bias, with the prior uptrend from December occuring on rising volume (a bullish sign) and the current downtrend from early January occuring on declining volume (another bullish sign). Short-term trendline resistance has also become support but price would need to reclaim $117 on the higher timeframes to confirm this for bulls. I would begin looking for longs after this takes place.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $43.59 (0.01242 BTC)

Market Cap: $723.659mn (208,287 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero remains range-bound against Bitcoin and the Dollar, with XMR/USD in a tight range between $43-48, and XMR/BTC having found range resistance at 0.0136 BTC (a level of prior support). I am currently accumulating Monero in this range, but would exit on a Daily close below 0.0115 BTC. For the more risk-averse, I would wait for breakouts and higher timeframe closes above range resistance for both pairs.


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

LTC/BTC

Price: $33.93 (0.00978 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.046bn (589,501 BTC)

Thoughts: Litecoin isn’t a coin I’ve paid much attention to over the past year. Looking at it now, however, and it seems we have an opportunity presenting itself:

The LTC/USD Weekly chart shows that price has trading into prior resistance now turned support (the peak of the previous bubble), with trendline resistance and the Weekly 200MA holding price for now. The downtrend since January 2018 has also been occuring on progressively declining volume.

LTC/BTC is also being held by the Weekly 200MA, with the downtrend again occuring on near-zero volume. The Daily shows us that price is trading inside a bullish orderblock, and is currently pressing up against a level of significant historical resistance at 0.01 BTC (a breakout from which ignited the previous bull cycle). Further, price has broken above the Daily 200MA and successfully retested it. I’ll be buying any higher timeframe close above 0.01 BTC.

That concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it somewhat useful. As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll get back to you!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.