Market Outlook #23

Market Outlook #23 (17th February 2019)

Welcome to the 23rd Market Outlook. Following last week’s post, we seem to have gotten some decent follow-through in places, alongside some cases of rejection at important levels of resistance. Overall, however, bullish sentiment seems to be picking up across-the-board, and plenty of altcoins have begun their cyclical reversals.

In today’s post, I’ll be working through the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, followed by a couple of altcoins that I believe will follow the trajectory of those like Ark and Vertcoin, which have recently moved 2-3x from their lows in short-term spikes. These, keep in mind, are the beginnings of reversals.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3755

Market Cap: $65.873bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin spent the vast majority of the week consolidating after breaking market structure to the upside last week. Just this morning, it burst out of consolidation, but a breakout is unconfirmed until we get a 4H close above the short-term trendline resistance. If we do see such a breakout, and ideally on more significant volume than at present, I believe we will see BTC approach those equal highs ~$4200 soon after.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that price is currently being capped by mid-term trendline resistance, and remains within an important pivot area. Reclaiming this area and breaking out above it on the higher timeframes is what we need to see to confirm another leg up.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $127.93 (0.03498 BTC)

Market Cap: $13.417bn (3,669,555 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum continues to look bullish against the Dollar, recently breaking out above 6-month trendline resistance, though not on particularly significant volume. Despite this, it seems as though the move below the $116 support was indeed a fakeout, with price explosively reclaiming levels beyond it since. The 4H actually illuminates the volume profile more clearly, with significant volume occuring on the upwards movements. A 4H close above $132 would make it all but inevitable for price to retest those recent highs (and significant resistance) around $170.

Looking at ETH/BTC, we can see that the local highs at 0.042 BTC were capped by the Daily 200MA, and that price is once again attempting a breakout above the moving average. This is taking place after a significant reversal from the move below 0.0318 BTC, but declining volume on this uptrend is a worry. I’d like to see volume return with a Daily close above the 200MA and above the swing-high at 0.035 BTC to confirm a retest of those highs at 0.042 BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $47.47 (0.01291 BTC)

Market Cap: $797.396mn (216,871 BTC)

Thoughts: Well, what can I say… Monero seems to be the new Litecoin, rock-like in its determination to remain inside the range it has formed. This past week, we saw price attempt a breakout but price quickly returned to the range; Monero is clearly still in accumulation.


Komodo:

KMD/USD

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.80 (21790 satoshis)

Market Cap: $89.737mn (24,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo is perhaps amongst the handful of opportunities at present that encompasses both fundamental and technical strength in abundance. KMD/USD has recently broke out above trendline resistance from January 2018 on high volume, though remains capped by the 200MA.

If we look at the first chart for KMD/BTC, we can also see that, in the past, Komodo has traded below 22.5k satoshis twice, and when that level was reclaimed with a Daily close above it, a new bull cycle began. It is currently at the edge of a third occurrence, and though market conditions are certainly dissimilar to those of the previous two occurrences, this is nonetheless a low-risk, high-reward opportunity. Perhaps we won’t see quite as explosive a bull cycle this time, but, then again, Bitcoin is trading at similar prices to those of the first bull cycle that occured in Komodo.


MonetaryUnit:

MUE/BTC

Price: $0.014 (380 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.098mn (576 BTC)

Thoughts: Having written a Coin Report on MonetaryUnit previously, and knowing it has fundamental qualities that few projects in its market-cap range possess, it is even more pleasing to see a potential triple-bottom forming here.

MUE/BTC has seen numerous high-volume buyups over the past few months, and has refused to trade below 300 satoshis during that time. Buys here with soft stop-losses on a Daily close below 300 seem a good idea to me.


Kore:

KORE/BTC

Price: $0.37 (10158 satoshis)

Market Cap: $801,426 (218 BTC)

Thoughts: This is a proper Bittrex low-cap, and one of the shitcoin plays I most like. I know little of its fundamentals but I like that Kore is at historical support, and has experienced several high volume buyups since November. Price is currently range-bound, with 16-month trendline resistance edging closer and closer. Price is also trailing just below the Daily 200MA. For the more risk-averse, waiting for a Daily close above 14k satoshis is likely a good plan, but, as can be seen in the left side of the chart, Kore moves explosively.

That concludes this 23rd Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read. Feel free to leave any questions or comments below and I’ll get back to you!


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Market Outlook #20

Market Outlook #20 (27th January 2019)

Welcome to the 20th Market Outlook. That’s somewhat of a milestone, is it not? And what does the past week of price-action present us by way of celebration? In short, f all.

Whilst not technically true, we have just witnessed another week of consolidation amongst Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, and price-action at present is extremely choppy on the lower timeframes. We are mostly still range-bound, but the consolidation in Bitcoin is proving to be of service to the rest of the market, with many alts either beginning to pop or looking as though they are on the precipice.

In today’s Market Outlook, I will take a granular look at the market structure in Bitcoin, in an attempt to show just how choppy and uncertain it is currently, and how traders are being destroyed left, right and centre. I’ll then examine Ethereum and Monero, before presenting a couple of opportunities in Komodo and, most interestingly, Golem.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3596

Market Cap: $62.946bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin continues to bounce between lower timeframe levels of support and resistance, effectively range-bound between $3560 and $3750 for the past two weeks (excluding the anomalies; the high at $3886 and the low at $3460).

As such, I figured it would be useful to do a move-by-move study of price-action across this period, observing, in particular, how often (and how mercilessly) price shifts market structure on the 4H:

Towards the end of 2018, we can see a series of higher-lows forming (and with them trendline support). These are met with lower-highs, with the range contracting until the breakout in the first week of January 2019. This high-volume breakout shifted the market structure to bullish from neutral by forming the first higher-high since before the New Year. This then led to another period of consolidation and a contracting range, with price failing to make any new highs above ~$4210.

A lower-high is followed by a lower-low and another lower-high, leading to another break in market structure on the 10th January; this time turning it bearish. This was also the moment price broke the trendline support that had been in play since around Christmas.

This led to a dramatic dump, and a series of lower-highs and lower-lows, typical of bearish market structure. We then see price surge up on the 14th January and form a higher-high, once again shifting market structure to bullish. This is followed by a few days of chop and consolidation, before a higher-high is made at $3886 on the 19th. One could be forgiven for expecting this new high to be met with a higher-low, as is typical of bullish market structure, but once again expectations were demolished and price broke below the previous low at ~$3650; market structure was once again bearish.

This shift brought with it the low at ~$3450 this past week, which has been followed by another period of consolidation. This was the case until yesterday, when price broke above $3650 once again, reclaiming the lost level and turning market structure bullish with a higher-high at $3750. Price has since formed a higher-low (which I have mistakenly marked a lower-low on the chart) at $3600. Will this be met with a new high or another change in market structure, back to bearish?

In truth, I cannot possibly say. The declining volume on the recent retrace back into the range suggests we may get another leg up, but given all that I have outlined above, this is no certainty. The most risk-averse way to play this would be to wait until the market shows you the direction it wants; this will come either in the form of a higher-high, after which it would be logical to expect the highs at $4200 to be targeted; or in the form of a clean break below $3550, ideally with a higher timeframe close below this level, indicating further downside to be found and a good area for shorts to enter.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $116.07 (0.03227 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.126bn (3,375,084 BTC)

Thoughts: Much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is yet undecided on a clear direction. Against the Dollar, it is clearly range-bound between $116-$120, failing to close above or below these levels on the 4H or 1H over the past week.

Sometimes it is useful, even in tight periods of consolidation, to remind ourselves of the higher timeframe view. As such, ETH/BTC on the Daily shows us that we have bled below the Daily Breaker, just about, but that we are still well within the Daily Bullish Orderblock, with key support resting at 0.0313 BTC. The 4H shows us the gradual downtrend of the past two weeks that has led us to this point.

I have illustrated the two moves I am waiting for before taking any trade on ETH. The bullish scenario would be a clean and strong breakout above this 4H downtrend, ideally on significant volume, at which point I would go long on a retrace with my sight set on 0.042 BTC being taken out. The bearish scenario would be for price to break below this current channel, forming a higher timeframe close below the key support at 0.0313 BTC. This would turn the Daily to bearish, and shorts could be found on a retest of this prior support, which would be expected to hold as resistance.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $45.84 (0.01274 BTC)

Market Cap: $767.835mn (213,410 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero remains less decisive than even Bitcoin or Ethereum, slowly trending upwards but doing little to comba tthe trendline support turned resistance that has been in play since mid-December 2018.

A clean breakout above trendline resistance and above 0.0137 BTC would turn market structure bullish, and I’d be buying; a strong rejection from trendline resistance and a subsequent clean break below 0.0122 BTC and I would be selling what I currently hold.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.685 (19074 satoshis)

Market Cap: $76.45mn (21,281 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo looks very much ready for a move above range resistance at ~22k satoshis. It has been denied a higher timeframe close above this level for the past 5 months almost, trading between it and range support at 15.5k satoshis. During that period, Komodo has experienced high volume on buyups, followed by low volume retracements back to range support. More recently, however, price broke above its 200-day moving average on significant volume, being restrained only by range resistance. Price subsequently retraced on declining volume back to the 200 MA, holding firm around this level; now looking to make another attempt at a breakout from the range.


Golem:

GNT/BTC

Price: $0.065 (1820 satoshis)

Market Cap: $63.020mn (17,541 BTC)

Thoughts: I have no idea how it has taken until the last week of January for me to take a look at Golem, but the past 8 weeks have seen it experience insane volume. Price set a high just shy of 3000 satoshis at the beginning of December 2018, during which period 74% of Golem’s circulating supply was traded across all exchanges. This was followed by a move lower and the formation of a range between 1700-1900 satoshis for over a month. This range remains in play, and, during this period, Golem has experienced cumulative volume of over 317% of its circulating supply. If that isn’t a sign of serious interest at current prices, I have no idea what is. I will certainly be buying in this range.

That concludes the 20th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it somewhat useful! Feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll get back to you.


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Market Outlook #17

Market Outlook #17 (6th January 2019)

Happy New Year, everyone! Welcome to the 17th Market Outlook, and the first of 2019. Having taken a two-week break over Christmas, it seems I missed a lot of interesting action; in particular, that of Ethereum, as we’ll discuss shortly. Overall, it looks to me like the signals that appeared in  early December in anticipation of short-term reversals are finally bearing fruit across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll cover the past couple of weeks of price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as Stratis and Komodo. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3901

Market Cap: $68.135bn

Thoughts: So, it’s been a good three weeks since the last Market Outlook, in which I suggested that a short-term bottom was nearby. Since then, Bitcoin has moved from ~$3200 to just shy of $4400 and back to around $3700. Price then consolidated after the period of volatility and has now found short-term resistance at $4115 (a level of prior resistance), with higher-lows forming with each test; this, in essence, is an ascending triangle, but volume is currently flat, so we can’t be 100% confident in a breakout to the upside.

That being said, the 1H chart clearly shows a lot of swing highs in the $4100 region that remain unswept, and with price having already cleared the swing-low at $3875, it is likely that we will see continued bullish price-action. However, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a false breakout to the downside, with price looking to trade inside the 1H bullish orderblock at $3825 prior to making any further upwards progress…

Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $153.49 (0.0399 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.943bn (4,162,730 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum has experienced a tremendous reversal, having swept the September lows at ~0.027 BTC early in December. The Weekly shows us that price failed to break the long-term support at ~0.023 BTC, and the reluctance to make new lows has led us to a near-60% rally against Bitcoin. In the process of rallying, ETH has broken through numerous short-term resistance levels on significant volume, with the most important move occuring towards the end of 2018, when price broke above 0.034 BTC, thus breaking the bearish market structure. Price has since held that level, moving up through the resistance at 0.0375 BTC. Volume is declining on the Daily, however, suggesting that this current leg may be overextended. I would expect a period of relief, in which price moves back towards 0.036 BTC; but, make no mistake, it is very much likely we have found the cyclical bottom for ETH/BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.35 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $840.794mn (219,575 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has had a more relaxed few weeks, but also seems to have found a bottom. The Weekly shows us that price remains within the bullish orderblock from October/November 2017, failing to break below the support at 0.0111 BTC despite the extended downtrend. This downtrend has now been broken, as is clear from the Daily, and it looks as though an Adam & Eve bottom is forming with a neckline at ~0.0135 BTC. I expect Monero to take the reigns from Ethereum soon and rally towards the support turned resistance at 0.016 BTC. But first, we need a close above 0.0141 BTC to confirm the bullish market structure.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.07 (27939 satoshis)

Market Cap: $106.086mn (27,705 BTC)

Thoughts: Any regular reader of this blog will know that I am very fond of Stratis, having mentioned it in multiple posts. Around Christmas, Stratis experienced a huge buyup, after spending some time trading below range support. In that period, around a third of Stratis’ circulating supply was traded across all exchanges, and price blasted through the consolidation range, up to a peak around 42500 satoshis. In doing so, it cleared major resistance below 30k satoshis on significant volume. I would expect this area between 27-30k satoshis to become a new level of support. The recent drop-off after the peak has occured on ever-decreasing volume, suggesting that a new swing-low should soon form and, with it, a new leg up should begin.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.77 (19975 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.268mn (22,239 BTC)

Thoughts: It is somewhat rare to spot such an obvious buy as Komodo. Price has been in a large range for a long time, with rising levels of volume and clear accumulation taking place. Range resistance continues to hold at 23k satoshis, but this is one to buy on any movement back towards range support around 16k satoshis. There’s really very little else to say about this one except that the opportunity is made overt by the chart.

That concludes this instalment of Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found something of value here. Please feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


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