Market Outlook #17

Market Outlook #17 (6th January 2019)

Happy New Year, everyone! Welcome to the 17th Market Outlook, and the first of 2019. Having taken a two-week break over Christmas, it seems I missed a lot of interesting action; in particular, that of Ethereum, as we’ll discuss shortly. Overall, it looks to me like the signals that appeared in  early December in anticipation of short-term reversals are finally bearing fruit across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll cover the past couple of weeks of price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as Stratis and Komodo. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3901

Market Cap: $68.135bn

Thoughts: So, it’s been a good three weeks since the last Market Outlook, in which I suggested that a short-term bottom was nearby. Since then, Bitcoin has moved from ~$3200 to just shy of $4400 and back to around $3700. Price then consolidated after the period of volatility and has now found short-term resistance at $4115 (a level of prior resistance), with higher-lows forming with each test; this, in essence, is an ascending triangle, but volume is currently flat, so we can’t be 100% confident in a breakout to the upside.

That being said, the 1H chart clearly shows a lot of swing highs in the $4100 region that remain unswept, and with price having already cleared the swing-low at $3875, it is likely that we will see continued bullish price-action. However, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a false breakout to the downside, with price looking to trade inside the 1H bullish orderblock at $3825 prior to making any further upwards progress…

Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $153.49 (0.0399 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.943bn (4,162,730 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum has experienced a tremendous reversal, having swept the September lows at ~0.027 BTC early in December. The Weekly shows us that price failed to break the long-term support at ~0.023 BTC, and the reluctance to make new lows has led us to a near-60% rally against Bitcoin. In the process of rallying, ETH has broken through numerous short-term resistance levels on significant volume, with the most important move occuring towards the end of 2018, when price broke above 0.034 BTC, thus breaking the bearish market structure. Price has since held that level, moving up through the resistance at 0.0375 BTC. Volume is declining on the Daily, however, suggesting that this current leg may be overextended. I would expect a period of relief, in which price moves back towards 0.036 BTC; but, make no mistake, it is very much likely we have found the cyclical bottom for ETH/BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.35 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $840.794mn (219,575 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has had a more relaxed few weeks, but also seems to have found a bottom. The Weekly shows us that price remains within the bullish orderblock from October/November 2017, failing to break below the support at 0.0111 BTC despite the extended downtrend. This downtrend has now been broken, as is clear from the Daily, and it looks as though an Adam & Eve bottom is forming with a neckline at ~0.0135 BTC. I expect Monero to take the reigns from Ethereum soon and rally towards the support turned resistance at 0.016 BTC. But first, we need a close above 0.0141 BTC to confirm the bullish market structure.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.07 (27939 satoshis)

Market Cap: $106.086mn (27,705 BTC)

Thoughts: Any regular reader of this blog will know that I am very fond of Stratis, having mentioned it in multiple posts. Around Christmas, Stratis experienced a huge buyup, after spending some time trading below range support. In that period, around a third of Stratis’ circulating supply was traded across all exchanges, and price blasted through the consolidation range, up to a peak around 42500 satoshis. In doing so, it cleared major resistance below 30k satoshis on significant volume. I would expect this area between 27-30k satoshis to become a new level of support. The recent drop-off after the peak has occured on ever-decreasing volume, suggesting that a new swing-low should soon form and, with it, a new leg up should begin.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.77 (19975 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.268mn (22,239 BTC)

Thoughts: It is somewhat rare to spot such an obvious buy as Komodo. Price has been in a large range for a long time, with rising levels of volume and clear accumulation taking place. Range resistance continues to hold at 23k satoshis, but this is one to buy on any movement back towards range support around 16k satoshis. There’s really very little else to say about this one except that the opportunity is made overt by the chart.

That concludes this instalment of Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found something of value here. Please feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


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Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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