Market Outlook #3

Market Outlook #3 (23rd September 2018)

Hello, and welcome to the third Market Outlook post. For today’s post, we’ll be looking at Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and ALQO. There has been a lot of significant price-action over the past few days, and the first four coins (all of which have featured in this series of posts previously) look a lot different to how they looked in the first Market Outlook. ALQO is a newcomer, and felt like a must-include because of its recent movements.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the updates:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6681

Market Cap: $115.487bn

Thoughts: Contrary to what many seemed to be expecting, price has held firmly above the swing-low formed last week above $6k. Not only have we seen the local low held, but a new local high has been formed, creating bullish market structure for the short-term. This, coupled with last week’s rejection of a close below that oh-so-vital $6k level, is objectively bullish. We all know Bitcoin likes to set things up and then piss all over expectation; but, sparing perhaps one false wick of fuckery, present price-action is indicative of a bullish move above $7500 and a breakout from the trendline resistance sooner rather than later. In all honesty, I believe the worst is over with regards to price. I’m putting myself out there… if I’m wrong and the past two weeks of price-action has occured to lure me into a false sense of security, then so be it. Onwards and upwards, I say.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $122.19 (0.01828 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.007bn (300,388 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero continues to paint a bullish picture across-the-board. We have, however, moved more slowly from last week than I anticipated, and the re-test of ~$150 resistance hasn’t quite arrived yet. A series of higher lows and higher highs are forming on both BTC and USD charts. Short-term resistance at 0.0162BTC and $105, respectively, has become support, and I would expect to see further upside next week.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $242.60 (0.03629 BTC)

Market Cap: $24.779bn (3,707,430 BTC)

Thoughts: Volume is perhaps the most significant aspect of current ETH analysis. Not only has the previous volume all-time high been equalled for ETH/USD on Bitfinex, but, unlike that first occurence, volume has remained heavy. Plus, this time it preceded a breakout of 9-month trendline resistance. ATH volume + long-term trendline breakout is indicative of a bottom. On the 4H, price is consolidating around short-term resistance of $250. We could see a small dip to $225 to re-test the local breakout level, perhaps also testing the short-term uptrend that has formed. The major resistance zone in USD, however, is between $360-400. Turning to ETH/BTC, this past week also saw a trendline breakout, though of a shorter-term dowtrend. However, this breakout has occured within a daily bullish orderblock, and there is very little horizontal resistance between here and 0.053 BTC. On the 4H, we can see local resistance at 0.04 BTC, around 10% north of where price currently sits, with recent resistance forming local support levels. There also appears to be somewhat of an ascending triangle breakout above 0.035 BTC, though it’s a little abstract.


Stratis:

Price: $1.54 (0.000231555 BTC)

Market Cap: $152.974mn (22,930 BTC)

Thoughts: STRAT/BTC remains within the range illustrated in my first Market Outlook post, with bullish market structure being formed on the 4H. Range resistance is around 24k satoshis, and it would take a sustained period of price-action above this level before I believe the 29k-satoshi local top can be tested and broken above. This would be the Disbelief level that would indicate a new market cycle beginning. However, whilst we remain within this range, I’m buying. The closer to 20k satoshis I can get my average entry, the better. It has now been 6 weeks within this range, and I wouldn’t expect too many more range-bound weeks.


ALQO:

Price: $0.20 (2951 satoshis)

Market Cap: $11.25mn (1,664 BTC)

Thoughts: A new coin for the Market Outlook series, and one that I tweeted about earlier in the week. ALQO has surprisingly immaculate market structure for a low-to-mid-cap coin. I won’t get into its fundamentals here, but the chart alone is worthy of at least some consideration. Price has remained below trendline resistance since May, but broke out of said resistance earlier this month, on increasing (though still low) volume. Since then, support-turned-resistance at ~2400 satoshis has once again become a level of support, with a heavy resistance zone ahead between 4000-5000 satoshis. I believe a new market cycle has begun for ALQO; a belief that will be confirmed if price can sustain a move above this resistance zone, into Disbelief. I expect the 2400-satoshi level to become a local bottom.

And that wraps up our third Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it insightful. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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Market Outlook #2

Market Outlook #2 (17th September 2018)

So, for the second Market Outlook post, we will be looking at Bitcoin (as always), with an update on Monero and Ethereum from last week’s Market Outlook, and then introducing three smaller coins that I am rather bullish on for any potential alt-season (Ethereum-led or otherwise). These are Covesting, which is one of only three ICOs that I have ever invested in; Gridcoin, which is an old-school PoW research coin; and Blackcoin, which is the first ever staking coin, and one that I published a rich-list case study on a couple of months back.

For these Market Outlook posts, I will generally be providing updates on the big three (in my eyes, at least): Bitcoin; Monero; Ethereum. Bitcoin is a constant, but Monero and Ethereum have only crossed my radar as buy-worthy following their 80%+ tumbles from their respective highs. As such, I believe accumulating both at present will be profitable in the long run. Following updates on these, each week I think I’ll provide updates on two or three smaller projects. Last week’s were Ardor and Stratis, both of which are lingering where they were, give or take 5%.

Also, for each coin, I may choose to include both BTC and USD-denominated charts, or only one of the two; same goes for whether weekly and daily charts are included or only one. This will be down to whether there is actually anything interesting going on in those charts that I feel needs bringing to your attention.

Finally, I’d like to stress that the time-scale I work on is extensive; six months at minimum. Though these posts are and will continue to be a weekly feature, that is primarily to remain informed.

Anyways, enough of that. Let’s start with BTC.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6468

Market Cap: $112.24bn

Thoughts: My thoughts on Bitcoin have changed little from last week. The only thing that I was happy to see was another rejection from closing the weekly below $6000. This is the fifth weekly rejection from that level, which could be a promising sign if it is followed by a high-volume higher-high forming above $7500 in the coming weeks. Of course, we could see price break down again this week and lose the higher-low that has been formed on the daily, which would indicate a potential loss of the $6k level altogether.


Monero:

XMR/USD


XMR/BTC

Price: $115.81 (0.0178 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.97bn (293,342 BTC)

Thoughts: My bullish stance on Monero has been strengthened by the previous week’s price-action. We have seen a successful retest of the breakout level, with higher lows on both XMR/BTC and XMR/USD. The only thing lacking right now seems to be the volume, but market structure continues to point to the upside. I believe we’ll see another test of the ~$150 resistance level this coming week, and, given the current price-action, I’d be surprised if it didn’t finally give way.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $215.64 (0.0333BTC)

Market Cap: $22.092bn (3,415,137 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum is looking super interesting around here. Last week saw a high-volume bounce from long-term support zones in both USD and BTC. In fact, last week closed green on the highest volume in 18 months. That is a very bullish sign, though we remain below the long-term trendline resistance in USD. ETH/BTC looks primed for a move first to 0.036 and then to test the 0.04 resistance. I’d like to see a higher low form on the daily chart this week.


Covesting:

COV/BTC

Price: $0.77 (0.00011934 BTC)

Market Cap:$13.49mn (2,088 BTC)

Thoughts: Covesting is one of only three ICOs I have ever participated in, and it has very little price-history but great market structure. An area of heavy resistance around 12000 satoshis seems to have become strong support. Price is also forming a double-bottom within this support zone. I am expecting a breakout of the trendline resistance on volume in the next two weeks, given that the swing-low at 10k satoshis holds firm.


Gridcoin:

GRC/BTC

Price: $0.019 (297 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.42mn (1,146 BTC)

Thoughts: Gridcoin is currently sitting with its long-term accumulation zone, between 200 and 500 satoshis. Its all-time low is 198 satoshis, and the recent volume spikes, along with the flattening out of recent price-action, presents a very high reward-to-risk opportunity. I am currently accumulating in anticipation of a break of the first trendline resistance. I would like to see the lows around 270 satoshis hold, though I am happy to be underwater as long as a new all-time low does not form. That would be the point at which the bag is cut. Whilst price remains within this long-term range, I am happy to buy.


Blackcoin:

BLK/USD

BLK/BTC

Price: $0.087 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $6.68mn (1,031 BTC)

Thoughts: I really like how Blackcoin currently looks on both its USD and BTC charts. BLK/USD has formed a low and seems to have bottomed out at the resistance level of its 2-year long accumulation range. This would be an ideal area for a new level of support to form. BLK/BTC is sitting above its all-time low of 1000 satoshis. An accumulation range seems to have formed around this level, between 1000 and 1400 satoshis. The 9-month downtrend also seems to have occurred on almost zero volume, indicating that large holders are not selling. This is something I also spotted in my rich-list case study of Blackcoin. Trendline resistance has been broken on the daily, with short-term resistance sitting around 1750 satoshis; a level I think will be breached in the coming weeks if this current range holds.

That’s the second Market Outlook post done and dusted. Let me know if you’re finding these posts useful and feel free to leave any questions in the Comments.


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The Case For ETH-Season

The following is just a brief digest of something I’ve noticed regarding altcoins and Ethereum:

It seems to me that there is a case to be made for a potential eth-season that may already be underway; something resembling the growth in ALT/BTC markets during Bitcoin’s 2014/15 bear market.

Firstly, let’s take a look at Bitcoin during that period:

BTC/USD 2014/15

As is evident from the chart, Bitcoin dropped around 85% in 413 days, and then was range-bound for 291 days before breaking out, re-testing the resistance level of the range and continuing on its eventual course to new all-time highs.

Now, let’s compare the price-action to ETH at present:

ETH/USD

Ethereum has fallen ~88% in 243 days (around 59% of the time it took Bitcoin to fall to its lows). If we map that forward, we can assume price to be range-bound below ~$275 for around 171 days. Of course, price-action never works out quite that precisely, but it’s worth keeping in mind.

Now, the interesting bit:

Altcoins

The 2014 Bitcoin bear market was a period in which the goal was to accrue more Bitcoin via altcoins. This made sense as Bitcoin was cheap. In the first half of 2017, this modus operandi continued to be successful; Bitcoin was still relatively cheap. Then, the winter of 2017 arrived and many of us that have been involved in the space since 2013/2014 neglected to consider that perhaps this approach was no longer the most effective. After all, Bitcoin was now above $10k and was most certainly no longer cheap. Regardless, many (myself included) stuck to our tried-and-tested methods and devoted the vast majority of our attention to ALT/BTC charts and prices. After all, we wanted more Bitcoin, didn’t we?

This was where many of us went wrong. Bitcoin was expensive. What we should have wanted was dollars. Had we the perspective or the foresight to recognise this, we would have been paying far more attention to ALT/USD charts…

January 2018 came along, and the market was in euphoria. The issue was that ALT/BTC charts had barely budged. Our portfolios had grown exponentially in dollar-terms, but we wanted Bitcoin, right? This disregard was the downfall of many in the following weeks, and I too would have been far better off had I had this perspective from the outset.

Flash-forward to the present day, and we once again find ourselves in an intriguing scenario. Bitcoin has fallen from its highs of ~$20k to roughly $6k. With it, the altcoin market has fallen ~87%. Ethereum has fallen a little more than that. Ethereum is cheap. Should we now be looking towards ALT/ETH charts and prices, where we once were concerned with ALT/BTC and ALT/USD? I  think the following charts illuminate a little on this matter:

ALQO/ETH

AMP/ETH
ARDR/ETH
BLK/ETH
GEO/ETH
GRC/ETH
STRAT/ETH
XMR/ETH

Now, I don’t know about you, but it sure looks to me as though an eth-season is underway. Perhaps the current goal should be to accrue ETH.

What do you think?


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