Market Outlook #29

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #29 (31st March 2019)

Afternoon, and welcome to the 29th Market Outlook.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Litecoin and discussing a low-risk, high-reward opportunity spotted in XEL.

Bitcoin:

Price: $4160

Market Cap: $73.297bn

Thoughts: As anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, this week brought a continuation of bullish momentum, with price taking out the highs formed mid-March at $4170. With these highs swept, price began to consolidate a little, turning prior short-term resistance into support at ~$4100.

We remain at the very top of the longer-term range, however, and thus caution must be urged to those getting a little too bullish; until price closes on the higher timeframes and on significant volume above $4500, there is no reason to believe the range resistance won’t hold. As such, I expect price to continue moving upwards to take out the local high at $4280, where many stops will be resting, after which we may find significant overhead resistance that necessitates a move back down towards the $4050 level.

That said, we shall cross that bridge when we get to it, and I believe the following week will be one of further bullish continuation.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $141.56 (0.03457 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.925bn (3,646,596 BTC)

Thoughts: I have provided the Weekly chart for ETH/USD to give some context as to the overhead resistance inching closer, in the form of 15-month trendline resistance. That said, we look set to close the first Weekly candle in the green above the 20-week moving average; something that has not happened since the bear market began in ETH. Declining volume does suggest we may experience a brief drop off as that trendline resistance is approached, and this lines up with my expectations for ETH/BTC.

Looking at the ETH/BTC 4H chart, we can see that price is very much still range-bound, but the recent uptrend remains intact and there is a clear divergence in the RSI, indicating underlying strength in the market. I expect price to make another attempt at 0.0352 BTC this coming week, followed by a rejection, with price falling back to the trendline before finally making a move above the short-term resistance. Ultimately, I expect to see a breakout above range resistance at 0.036 BTC in April.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.50 (0.01307 BTC)

Market Cap: $903.56mn (220,789 BTC)

Thoughts: 106 days into accumulation… partial profits from outside trades continuing to be cycled into Monero inside this range.


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

LTC/BTC

Price: $60.59 (0.0148 BTC)

Market Cap: $3.703bn (904,948 BTC)

Thoughts: So, I’ve provided a potential fractal for LTC/USD on the Weekly chart, though I do doubt that the duration of the consolidation (if this plays out) will be anywhere near the length of the previous cycle. Looking at the chart, we can see the similarities in price-action, most importantly with price experiencing a similar follow-through in momentum following the close above the Weekly 20MA.

Now, looking at the LTC/BTC chart, unlike most other alts, it seems to me that Litecoin is running out of steam, having initially led the charge forward and doubled in price since December. RSI is showing bearish divergences and volume is declining at a significant area of prior support now turned resistance. I am expecting a move back toward 0.0125 BTC before any further upside.


XEL:

XEL/BTC

Price: $0.03 (785 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.944mn (719 BTC)

Thoughts: Given the slowly shifting sentiment and reversion to bullish market structure on alts, I am becoming more and more open to taking positions purely based on technicals (as I showed with the ADT position I opened following Market Outlook #27)

Similarly, here I have spotted a high-reward, low-risk opportunity in XEL, cemented by the recent volume spike that saw almost a quarter of its supply traded inside a day, indicating significant interest. I am buying below 800 satoshis, with a soft stop-loss on a Daily close below 675 satoshis, with a target of 1500 satoshis. This is a ~6:1 reward-to-risk trade.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #28

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #28 (24th March 2019)

Welcome to the 28th Market Outlook.

Today’s post will be a little briefer than usual, as much of the market remains in consolidation – I’ll just be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, plus a quick update on Stratis.

Bitcoin:

Price: $4040

Market Cap: $70.887bn

Thoughts: In last week’s post, I mentioned that though short-term price-action was bullish, it is critical to remember the longer-term range price is currently trading within, and that we were coming towards the top of that range.

I was over-expectant in this short-term bullishness, anticipating a retest of $4300 this past week; instead, price found resistance a little early and dropped off towards $4000, with the ~$4025 prior resistance remaining support. In truth, there was very little movement at all over the past week, with price remaining inside a ~$130 range.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that volume remains flat whilst price trails the 20-day moving average, forming a short-term ascending triangle; a triangle that, if price continues to trail the 20MA, will conclude around the first week of April. In general, price tends to break upwards from ascending triangles, but range resistance lies waiting if this is the case.

Over the coming week, I expect more of the same, with little volatility and price continuing to trail the 20MA towards the conclusion of the ascending triangle. Perhaps towards the end of the week (and the month),  we will see a breakout.

If price breaks and closes below the current uptrend on the Daily time-frame, I’d expect a move back towards $3800 to follow. If price breaks out above the local high below $4300, I’d expect the range resistance at $4500 to provide the next area for consolidation. Short-term outlook remains bullish, however, unless we get a clean break of that 3-week uptrend on signficant volume.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $137.84 (0.03427 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.523bn (3,611,743 BTC)

Thoughts: I completely underestimated the slowness of ETH over the past week, expecting price to make a weekly low around last Tuesday/Wednesday and see out the rest of the week with a move towards 0.036 BTC. Instead, we saw prices move towards the short-term range support above 0.034 BTC.

A similar pattern of price-action can be observed on the 4H ETH/BTC chart, with price running towards this support, breaking out above short-term trendline resistance and then returning to 0.0355 BTC. I expect we’ll see something similar play out over the coming week. This is all within a larger period of consolidation between 0.033 BTC and 0.036 BTC that I believe is setting Ethereum up for another move up towards 0.043 BTC in April. The only worry here is that ETH longs are at an all-time high on Bitfinex, and perhaps we need these shaken out before upwards momentum can continue. If this is to be the case, I’d expect the 3-week uptrend to give way on ETH/USD and prices to move back towards the longer-term uptrend at ~$125 – a fall of around 10%. This would imply an equivalent fall in BTC/USD if ETH/BTC is to remain within its current range.

Regardless, I remain leaning bullish on ETH going into April, and I believe what we will actually see is an upwards breakout from the ascending triangle that can be observed on the ETH/USD Daily chart.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.82 (0.01339 BTC)

Market Cap: $908.174mn (226,032 BTC)

Thoughts: We now approach 100 days range-bound for Monero; a vast period of consolidation that I believe indicates that Monero will be one of the outperformers of the next bull cycle amongst the ultra large-caps.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.94 (23415 satoshis)

Market Cap: $93.357mn (23,242 BTC)

Thoughts: The Stratis Weekly chart is a thing of beauty. Back in December, we saw a high-volume, explosive breakout above the long-term trendline resistance. Price has since experienced a low-volume pullback towards an earlier accumulation range, where it is being re-accumulated prior to a second leg up. I believe this second leg will take us towards prior support turned resistance at ~50k satoshis before the end of April. Beyond this, I expect to see prices reach for ~75k satoshis…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #27

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #27 (17th March 2019)

Welcome to the 27th Market Outlook; and what a week we’ve had. Across-the-board, we’ve seen continuations of bullish reversals, along with some periods of relief for altcoins that have already moved above and beyond their accumulation ranges. Critically, however, we have seen the market as a whole break above the 15-month downtrend that has been capping prices since January 2018, as can be seen from the chart printed below:

Despite the steadily rising volume and the breakout above trendline resistance, it is important to remember that we remain range-bound for the time being, until Total Market Cap closes above ~$145bn. Further, we still have half a day to go before we can look at the Weekly chart to see if we’ve closed above trendline resistance on that timeframe; for now, the Daily does look bullish for the market, overall.

Now, today’s post will be a little longer than usual, as I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Dash and Ubiq and breaking down the opportunity present in adToken.

It’s a lot to get through, so let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $4070

Market Cap: $70.937bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that BTC would need to break above $4050 on high volume to confirm a return to bullish market structure on the 4H, as well as an indication that a retest of the local high at ~$4300 was imminent.

This past week, we saw a bullish continuation of the momentum from the previous week on significant volume, with prior resistance now at $4070 now looking like support. Trendline support remains intact on the 4H, as does the 200MA acting as support as price continues to trend upwards.

That said, it is important to remember the range we remain within, which is why I’ve provided the Daily chart. Until we get a Daily close above $4400 on solid volume, it is wise to assume the range will remain in play, and thus there may be significant overhead resistance this coming week. I do believe we’ll retest the $4300 high from last month over the next few days; whether we close above it is not something I’m all too certain on. Perhaps we’ll need to consolidate around that high for a while before breaking above it with any serious momentum…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $140.28 (0.0348 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.767bn (3,672,639 BTC)

Thoughts: Looking at the Weekly chart for ETH/USD, we can see that price is breaking above the 20-week moving average for the first time since February 2018. Price rejected a move above it a couple of weeks ago, but now looks set to close above it. We can also see from the period prior to 2017 on the chart that a Weekly close above the 20MA preceded the subsequent 12-month bull run.

Looking now at ETH/BTC, the successful retest of the 200-day moving average has been completed, with price now looking to break above 15-month trendline resistance. A higher timeframe close above this trendline would indicate to me that the local high (and support turned resistance) around 0.042 BTC will be retested and likely broken above. However, looking at the 4H, price remains range-bound between 0.034 and 0.036 BTC, recently rejecting a move above the 200MA. That being said, I expect a reclamation of 0.0352 BTC on the 4H early this coming week, with bullish continuation towards range resistance by the Weekly close.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.26 (0.1325 BTC)

Market Cap: $897.888mn (223,360 BTC)

Thoughts: We are now 3 months into range-bound accumulation for Monero, but this past week saw higher 24H volume than any during this period. Short-term support has formed at 0.0125 BTC but price remains capped by range resistance at 0.0136 BTC.


Dash:

DASH/USD

DASH/BTC

Price: $91.26 (0.0226 BTC)

Market Cap: $793.292mn (197,784 BTC)

Thoughts: A few weeks ago, I broke down Dash’s price-history in a Market Outlook, mentioning that it seemed to be setting up for a bullish reversal, similar to Litecoin’s. This past week, we saw Dash break out of its consolidation on significant volume, but price remains capped by the 200-day moving average. The last couple of days have seen price pull back on low volume, and I’d expect this pullback to be followed by a break above the Daily 200MA towards an area of support turned resistance at 0.025 BTC.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.25 (6215 satoshis)

Market Cap: $10.621mn (2,648 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks set to close the Weekly above trendline resistance for the first time in 15 months, having already broken above this key resistance on the Daily with significant volume. Price has reclaimed prior support at 5000 satoshis (an important psychological figure) but remains capped, as is the case by many altcoins at the moment, by the Daily 200MA. A close above this level would open up a move towards long-term resistance at 10,000 satoshis – another important psychological figure.


adToken:

ADT/BTC

Price: $0.007 (173 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.16mn (1,035 BTC)

Thoughts: Whilst combing through charts this past week, I spotted this beauty. I have no idea about the fundamentals of adToken, but there is clearly significant interest at current prices and those prices happen to be near all-time lows. With the changing tide in the market at the moment, I have decided to take my first solely TA-based position in many, many months.

From the ADT/BTC Weekly chart, we can see that price is range-bound between its all-time low at ~130 satoshis and range resistance at ~260 satoshis. This range preceded the move towards 2400 satoshis in January 2018.

Now, looking at the Daily, we can see that the range has been in play for 214 days, which is insane. There have been frequent buy-ups during that time. Regarding a trade, I have entered at current prices, with a soft stop on a Daily close below 120 satoshis and a first target of ~550 satoshis. Let’s see how this one plays out…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. If you’ve found some value in the read, please do share it on Twitter etc. and feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.