Market Outlook #37

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #37 (26th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 37th Market Outlook.

After several dynamic weeks, this past week has been somewhat subdued, with most coins, including Bitcoin, in consolidation. That said, many alts are painting a series of higher-lows and higher-highs after finding local bottoms recently, and that is promising.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus taking a look at opportunities in Tron and BitTube.

Bitcoin:

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

1H:

BTCUSD1H

Price: $8003

Market Cap: $141.846bn

Thoughts: So, this week has been rather relaxed relative to the prior few. Rather than the expected bullish continuation above the $8400 ‘double top’, as can be seen in the Daily chart, we got a period of consolidation and a short-term range being formed. However, looking at the Daily, we can still see the intact parabola with old resistance levels becoming new support. Volume has started to decline and next week will certainly bring a breakout to one side or the other. But to which side? Looking at that clear double top at $8400, I would be very surprised if we didn’t move through that to trap shorts before getting any sort of correction…

Looking now at the 1H chart, we can see the range that’s been marked out, with $8400 acting as range resistance and $7600 acting as range support for the past week. Within this larger range, we are also trading inside a short-term range between $7920 and $8110. I am watching for a breakout on significant volume above or below this short-term range to determine whether we will gun for the $8400 ‘double top’ or break down and move back towards $7600 and likely lower. Bias remains bullish until proven otherwise.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

4H:

ETHBTC4H

Price: $250 (0.03121 BTC)

Market Cap: $26.555bn (3,320,056 BTC)

Thoughts: As expected in last week’s post, we did see a retrace on ETH/BTC towards the reclaimed support at 0.0306 BTC, with price printing somewhat of a bull-flag for those who trade patterns. Looking at the Daily chart, I have depicted the trajectory I expect Ethereum to take over the coming weeks, with a possibility for one last drop down into support at 0.0305 BTC before bullish continuation towards trendline resistance.

From the 4H, we can see the local high printed at 0.0348 BTC and the subsequent move back into support. The 4H is currently rejecting a close below 0.031 BTC, but we need to see a higher-high made above 0.0327 BTC before a bullish continuation is on the cards. Volume has been declining on this pullback, which is positive for bulls. I expect we’ll get that higher-high next week.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Daily:

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $86.41 (0.0108 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.469bn (183,723 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero remains capped by significant support turned resistance at 0.0116 BTC, following a weak breakout above short-term trendline resistance. A bullish reversal will only be confirmed once that support is reclaimed on solid volume, which I believe will occur when Ethereum leads the charge. Beyond that, a reclamation of the 200-day moving average would mark the beginning of a new bull cycle to me, as this has capped price since the beginning of the bear market.


Tron:

TRX/BTC

Weekly:

TRXBTCWeekly

Daily:

TRXBTCDaily

4H:

TRX4H

Price: $0.029 (368 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.961bn (245,270 BTC)

Thoughts: Whilst there are many speculators that decline to touch Tron, much like they decline to go near Ripple, I simply look at profitable opportunities, and Tron looks very bullish.

Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see that price is currently trading inside an historical accumulation zone; one that has led to two bull cycles in the past. As such, this is likely a rewarding area for buyers.

Moving onto the Daily chart, price looks to have formed a potential cyclical bottom at 310 satoshis, though is currently capped by trendline resistance and horizontal resistance at 400 satoshis. A Daily close above both of these areas of resistance would be a clear mark of a new cycle beginning, in my opinion, and the next area of interest would be 530 satoshis.

Finally, from the 4H chart, we can see that price has broken out of a bullish pennant on significant volume, making a move towards that level of support turned resistance around 400 satoshis.

All I’m saying is that it looks like a low-risk, high-reward trade to me…


BitTube:

TUBE/BTC

Daily:

TUBEBTCDaily

Price: $0.048 (606 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.091mn (887 BTC)

Thoughts: I figured I’d take a look at a smaller coin, given that the past couple of Market Outlook posts have been focused on the larger ones. BitTube is one that looks promising to me at current prices, as, much like Tron, it is in an area of historical accumulation, preceding bull cycles. Further, price has clearly broken above trendline resistance on good volume and is currently retesting it as support. Entries here have between 15-20% of downside risk, with possible upside of 200-300%. It’s a no-brainer, really.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #36

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #36 (19th May 2019)

Welcome to the 36th Market Outlook. In this week’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus I’ll be taking a look at Cardano.

Bitcoin:

BTCUSDDaily

BTCUSD1H

Price: $7908

Market Cap: $140.048bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that the lower timeframes were indicative of a short-term top for Bitcoin, and that we may perhaps retest $7500 this past week before making a move back towards the $6800 area. Whilst we did indeed visit $6800, it was only briefly and only after price made new highs at $8400 a few days ago, having held onto the 4H parabola in place.

Looking at the Daily chart provided, we can see that Bitcoin has been capped at a prior level of resistance, forming a far too clean ‘double-top’ scenario. Further, the higher-timeframe parabolic advance is still very much in play, and the flash-crash into the high $6000s was met with a swift reversal and what looks to be a potential bullish continuation. Prior resistance was turned support at $6800 and the trend remains strong. Volume also doesn’t seem to have dropped off yet; as such, there is no indication that $8400 will hold BTC down for much longer…

Looking now at the Hourly chart provided, we can clearly see the current short-term market structure, where the flash crash to $6660 broke the bullish momentum briefly, but the reversal was relatively swift. Resistance turned support at $7600 has been reclaimed and price is lingering beneath local highs above $8k. I have depicted the bearish and bullish scenarios, but given the strength of the trend and the consistency of the volume, I am leaning bullish.

The bearish scenario would see price begin to break down on the lower timeframes, ultimately making a move back towards that pivot at $7600. If this level was lost again, I’d expect price to move back towards $6700. Price is essentially range-bound for now between $6660 and $8400, with $7600 acting as the range equilibrium.

The bullish scenario is a simple one; some consolidation early next week followed by a move above $8400. This is what I expect to see.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETHUSDDaily

ETHUSD4H

ETH/BTC

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $252.24 (0.03206 BTC)

Market Cap: $26.771bn (3,403,218 BTC)

Thoughts: Unlike my thoughts on Bitcoin from last week’s post, my expectations of Ethereum played out near-perfectly, if a little more explosively than anticipated. We saw a sharp reversal for ETH/BTC, and thus a bullish continuation on ETH/USD.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see how significant the volume is on ETH/USD at present, with volume equalling that of December 2017 on Coinbase. Price also closed above the 360-day moving average, and I have depicted the path to the next area of significant resistance. I doubt we’ll see much of a retrace prior to $350 being hit.

From the 4H ETH/USD chart, we can see the bullish break in market structure when price closed above $250. A pullback and continuation would be the expected course from here.

Finally, the Daily chart for ETH/BTC paints quite a picture. Most significantly, we have likely now found the cyclical bottom for Ethereum at 0.0246 BTC, indicated by the sharp reversal away from that level on heavy volume, in the process of which market structure on the Daily timeframe turned bullish, a level of prior support turned resistance was reclaimed at 0.0305 BTC and the 200-day moving average was reclaimed.

Trendline resistance is the next port-of-call for ETH/BTC, I believe, and a move above 0.035 BTC would herald the beginning of a new bull cycle and the likely breakout above 0.042 BTC in the coming weeks.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $86.26 (0.01087 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.465bn (184,719 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero found support at a critical level this past week: 0.01 BTC. Following this, price broke out above trendline resistance, though not as dynamically as the reversals on other altcoins. Range support has become resistance at 0.012 BTC, and price will need to reclaim this level for 0.01 BTC to be confirmed as Monero’s cyclical bottom.


Cardano:

ADA/USD

ADAUSDDaily

ADA/BTC

ADABTCDaily

ADABTC4H

Price: $0.085 (1067 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.194bn (276,732 BTC)

Thoughts: I don’t think I’ve ever analyed Cardano on the blog, but it’s current price-action presents a great opportunity, in my opinion; in particular because it is one of the few altcoins on BitMex, and a leveraged long on a potential cyclical bottom is an attractive idea. Now, I rarely ever trade on leverage, but there are rare occasions where it makes a lot of sense to do so.

Looking first at the ADA/USD Daily chart, we can see the strength of trendline support and the fact that price bounced off the 200-day moving average recently on solid volume. We can also see the resistance at $0.10.

More important, however, is the ADA/BTC chart, which shows price finding a bottom at 911 satoshis, above the December 2018 low of 834 satoshis. Following this, price bounced hard and broke out above the trendline resistance that has been in play since April. Currently, the 200-day MA is capping price, but, given the bullish market structure on ETH/BTC, I expect ADA will follow suit once ETH begins moving up again.

Looking at the 4H chart, we can see the clean break above trendline resistance, as well as the bullish market structure break above 1058 satoshis on high volume. An entry here with a stop-loss at 900 satoshis and a target of 1950 satoshis (the local high from April) present a 6:1 reward-to-risk opportunity, unleveraged. Add in some low leverage and you have an opportunity for some very high returns.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #35

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #35 (12th May 2019)

Well, we’ve had a wild week.

In today’s Market Outlook, I’ll be analysing the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum. There’s quite a lot to cover, as you might expect, so let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

BTCUSDWeekly

Daily (1):

BTCUSDDaily

4H:

BTCUSD4H

Shorts/Longs Ratio:

BTCUSDShortsLongs

Daily (2):

BTCUSDDaily2

1H:

BTCUSD1H

Price: $7132

Market Cap: $126.209bn

Thoughts: There’s really very little point in harking back to last week’s Market Outlook, because this past week Bitcoin has blown all expectations of bears and bulls alike out of the water. I will say that, whilst I began last week expecting one final leg up before a drop, I certainly did not expect what has occurred; at least not until I did some further analysis, as I shall come to a little later. If you’d like to bypass all the following analysis and skip straight to an explanation of what’s happened this past week, read my thread from Twitter.

Let’s begin with the Weekly chart:

Following the breakout from trendline resistance and range resistance at $4100, Bitcoin jumped up towards $5200 and consolidated. The week before last saw the Weekly close poised beneath the $6000 supposed resistance. “Resistance, what resistance might that be?” exclaimed Big Daddy Bitcoin as it spent the past 7 days rallying over $1500 towards $7500. Indeed, it has been a magnificent week for BTC. If Bitcoin can hold above $7000 for the Weekly close, one could make the case that the $6k resistance has been reclaimed as support, but that’s many hours away and, as we will see from the lower timeframe charts, it does appear the local top is in.

Looking now at the first Daily chart provided, I have depicted the parabolic curve of the bull run that culminated in the blow-off top at $20,000 in December 2017. Now, take a look at the 4H chart below it and observe the similarities in the curve of the rally: each leg proceeds to get steeper, culminating in that blow-off top pattern. But why have we had such an extended rally, blowing out levels of perceived significant resistance?

Well, I believe a large part of the answer is related to the Shorts/Longs ratio for Bitcoin. At the beginning of the week, this ratio was at all-time highs, indicating the extreme bearishness of market participants and an excess of shorts. With each successive leg up, more and more of these shorts were liquidated, causing Bitcoin to be bought at market price, pushing prices further and beyond levels that would have expected to give resistance. This cascading effect ends only when the shorts/longs ratio returns to normal, and the steep decline in the ratio over the past couple of days is indicative of this.

And what about current price-action? Well, let us look at the second Daily chart provided:

Here, we can see the multiple swing-highs cleared by the rally, as well as the direction I expect price to take from here. A retest of $7400 is possible but not required, but I do believe we’ll begin to break down towards the $6k area to retest it as reclaimed support.

Finally, the 1H chart shows that the parabola is indeed broken and thus it is likely that ~$7550 was the local top. From here we can expect price to to move towards key short-term support at $6930, which, if it gives way, will open up a move back down to $6800. A breakdown at $6800 would send price back towards the $6300 area.

Let’s see what next week brings us.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ETHUSDWeekly

Daily:

ETHUSDDaily

ETH/BTC

Daily (1):

ETHBTCDaily

Daily (2):

ETHBTCDaily2

15m:

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $188.10 (0.0265 BTC)

Market Cap: $20.041bn (2,810,020 BTC)

Thoughts: Now, looking at the Weekly chart for ETH/USD, I noticed that the uptrend that formed when Ethereum bottomed in late 2016 was never broken as price made its way towards the resistance at $15. Given that the  cyclical bottom for ETH/USD is likely in now, we may see something similar hefollow, wherein the trendline support remains firm all the way to resistance at $350, above which I expect the real party to begin.

Looking at the Daily chart for ETH/USD, I have depicted this trajectory, anticipating a brief dip as BTC/USD dips but expecting this to be shortlived as ETH/BTC gets bought up. This past couple of days has experienc $ed huge volume on Kraken, as Ethereum has broken above the $188 resistance briefly, it is the $250 area that I am most interested in, as it is an area of support turned resistance but also in the region of the 360-day moving average.

Turning towards ETH/BTC, which is where I believe capital will begin to flow (and subsequently to other alts) following Bitcoin’s local top, the first Daily chart shows the bounce from trendline resistance yesterday on significant volume. Further, it shows a similar fractal playing out to that of December 2017 – December 2018 but on a smaller scale. Such a fractal would have ETH/BTC bottoming out here and beginning a new rally to take out the highs at 0.042 BTC.

The second Daily chart shows the breakdown from support turned resistance at 0.0306 BTC. This is the level that needs to be reclaimed on the Daily timeframe for market structure to become bullish again. Also, it is interesting to note that the recent ETH/BTC price-action almost mirrors and inverts the parabolic curve of BTC/USD, culminating in yesterday’s local bottom at 0.0255 BTC.

Finally, a much lower timeframe view – the 15-minute – shows us the level I would like to see reclaimed for ETH to make a move above 0.029 BTC.

Again, I expect that much of the capital that has bought into Bitcoin over the past week will flow into ETH/BTC as Bitcoin marks out its local top. Let’s see…


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMRUSDDaily

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $74.39 (0.01059 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.282bn (179,778 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero looks similar to Ethereum here, albeit with a deeper spring on XMR/BTC than on ETH/BTC. On the XMR/USD chart, we can see the breakout above trendline resistance on signficant volume, as well as the successful retest of the 200-day moving average. There is significant resistance to overcome below $100, but, if Ethereum does lead the way, Monero will follow.

Looking finally at XMR/BTC, we can see that price is sitting right above critical support at 0.01 BTC, having fallen through range support at 0.0115 BTC last week. Below 0.01 BTC, there is little support for a long way down; as such, I suspect this is indeed a deep spring from which price will experience a sharp reversal over the coming weeks. A higher timeframe close below 0.01 BTC would spell doom, but a move back above 0.0115 BTC would cement the likelihood of a new bull cycle.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found some value in the read. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to leave them below.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.