Market Outlook #27

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #27 (17th March 2019)

Welcome to the 27th Market Outlook; and what a week we’ve had. Across-the-board, we’ve seen continuations of bullish reversals, along with some periods of relief for altcoins that have already moved above and beyond their accumulation ranges. Critically, however, we have seen the market as a whole break above the 15-month downtrend that has been capping prices since January 2018, as can be seen from the chart printed below:

Despite the steadily rising volume and the breakout above trendline resistance, it is important to remember that we remain range-bound for the time being, until Total Market Cap closes above ~$145bn. Further, we still have half a day to go before we can look at the Weekly chart to see if we’ve closed above trendline resistance on that timeframe; for now, the Daily does look bullish for the market, overall.

Now, today’s post will be a little longer than usual, as I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Dash and Ubiq and breaking down the opportunity present in adToken.

It’s a lot to get through, so let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $4070

Market Cap: $70.937bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that BTC would need to break above $4050 on high volume to confirm a return to bullish market structure on the 4H, as well as an indication that a retest of the local high at ~$4300 was imminent.

This past week, we saw a bullish continuation of the momentum from the previous week on significant volume, with prior resistance now at $4070 now looking like support. Trendline support remains intact on the 4H, as does the 200MA acting as support as price continues to trend upwards.

That said, it is important to remember the range we remain within, which is why I’ve provided the Daily chart. Until we get a Daily close above $4400 on solid volume, it is wise to assume the range will remain in play, and thus there may be significant overhead resistance this coming week. I do believe we’ll retest the $4300 high from last month over the next few days; whether we close above it is not something I’m all too certain on. Perhaps we’ll need to consolidate around that high for a while before breaking above it with any serious momentum…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $140.28 (0.0348 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.767bn (3,672,639 BTC)

Thoughts: Looking at the Weekly chart for ETH/USD, we can see that price is breaking above the 20-week moving average for the first time since February 2018. Price rejected a move above it a couple of weeks ago, but now looks set to close above it. We can also see from the period prior to 2017 on the chart that a Weekly close above the 20MA preceded the subsequent 12-month bull run.

Looking now at ETH/BTC, the successful retest of the 200-day moving average has been completed, with price now looking to break above 15-month trendline resistance. A higher timeframe close above this trendline would indicate to me that the local high (and support turned resistance) around 0.042 BTC will be retested and likely broken above. However, looking at the 4H, price remains range-bound between 0.034 and 0.036 BTC, recently rejecting a move above the 200MA. That being said, I expect a reclamation of 0.0352 BTC on the 4H early this coming week, with bullish continuation towards range resistance by the Weekly close.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.26 (0.1325 BTC)

Market Cap: $897.888mn (223,360 BTC)

Thoughts: We are now 3 months into range-bound accumulation for Monero, but this past week saw higher 24H volume than any during this period. Short-term support has formed at 0.0125 BTC but price remains capped by range resistance at 0.0136 BTC.


Dash:

DASH/USD

DASH/BTC

Price: $91.26 (0.0226 BTC)

Market Cap: $793.292mn (197,784 BTC)

Thoughts: A few weeks ago, I broke down Dash’s price-history in a Market Outlook, mentioning that it seemed to be setting up for a bullish reversal, similar to Litecoin’s. This past week, we saw Dash break out of its consolidation on significant volume, but price remains capped by the 200-day moving average. The last couple of days have seen price pull back on low volume, and I’d expect this pullback to be followed by a break above the Daily 200MA towards an area of support turned resistance at 0.025 BTC.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.25 (6215 satoshis)

Market Cap: $10.621mn (2,648 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks set to close the Weekly above trendline resistance for the first time in 15 months, having already broken above this key resistance on the Daily with significant volume. Price has reclaimed prior support at 5000 satoshis (an important psychological figure) but remains capped, as is the case by many altcoins at the moment, by the Daily 200MA. A close above this level would open up a move towards long-term resistance at 10,000 satoshis – another important psychological figure.


adToken:

ADT/BTC

Price: $0.007 (173 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.16mn (1,035 BTC)

Thoughts: Whilst combing through charts this past week, I spotted this beauty. I have no idea about the fundamentals of adToken, but there is clearly significant interest at current prices and those prices happen to be near all-time lows. With the changing tide in the market at the moment, I have decided to take my first solely TA-based position in many, many months.

From the ADT/BTC Weekly chart, we can see that price is range-bound between its all-time low at ~130 satoshis and range resistance at ~260 satoshis. This range preceded the move towards 2400 satoshis in January 2018.

Now, looking at the Daily, we can see that the range has been in play for 214 days, which is insane. There have been frequent buy-ups during that time. Regarding a trade, I have entered at current prices, with a soft stop on a Daily close below 120 satoshis and a first target of ~550 satoshis. Let’s see how this one plays out…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. If you’ve found some value in the read, please do share it on Twitter etc. and feel free to leave any comments or questions below!


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Market Outlook #24

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #24 (23rd February 2019)

Hello, hello, and welcome to the 24th Market Outlook, brought to you a day early this week; you lucky devils.

This past week, we have certainly seen the bullish follow-through anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, with the market then taking a little breather as we run into resistance across-the-board. Plenty to discuss, for sure.

In today’s post, I’ll be running through the usuals (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero), as well as taking a look at the current opportunity in Dash.

Bitcoin:

Price: $4047

Market Cap: $71.039bn

Thoughts: I’ve provided a Weekly chart just to re-evaluate where we are on the higher timeframes, as the recent bullish price-action can cause us all to get a little caught up. Nonetheless, we can clearly see that price remains within a Weekly Bullish Orderblock and has yet to close on a higher-high above $44oo. This is what we need to happen in order to confirm a longer-term reversal from this current range, as a close above this level would turn Weekly market structure bullish for the first time since the bear market began; this would also open up a likely retest of the ~$6000 support now turned resistance.

Moving onto the Daily, as expected in last week’s Market Outlook, price recently broke out above the first trendline resistance, closing above it on significant volume. Price has since spent a few days consolidating beneath a number of significant areas of resistance, including further trendline resistance and the double-top at ~$4200. I find it highly unlikely that price will have moved ~20% away from the recent lows ~$3400 to leave these equal highs untouched.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see that short-term resistance formed at $4070; a level of prior support from the range that preceded the dramatic dump back in January. Whilst we remain in consolidation at such a critical area of resistance, it is impossible to know whether we will see price falter and fall back to possibly find support where the short-term uptrend meets a level of support turned resistance at ~$3900, or whether this period of consolidation will provide sufficient fuel to simply continue the journey up to take out the equal highs at ~$4200. This will only become clear as price is able to close the 4H above or below the current range on significant volume. Whichever path price takes, I believe we see those highs taken out over the next couple of weeks.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $148.40 (0.0374 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.613bn (3,926,654 BTC)

Thoughts: I have omitted the ETH/USD charts this week, as the pair is simply following BTC/USD. ETH/BTC is where some interesting movement is occuring.

On the Daily, we can see that price closed above the 200MA for the first time since June 2018. Price is now consolidating below the support turned resistance (and the most recent swing-high) at 0.042 BTC. The volume being traded on this upwards momentum suggests to me that it is likely we see this swing-high taken out. In doing so, market structure will be undoubtedly bullish and a move to test prior support at 0.054 BTC wouldn’t be out of reach.

On the 4H, a similar pattern is playing out to that which preceded this past week’s leg up. An ascending triangle has formed, with volume declining during the consolidation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see continuation of the current uptrend next week.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $52.20 (0.01312 BTC)

Market Cap: $877.547mn (220,644 BTC)

Thoughts: Whilst the temptation does exist to simply omit Monero from the current posts due to its persistence in remaining range-bound, I believe it is useful to watch an accumulation range form and play out over time. Volume remains high whilst price remains in this range, and Monero continues to lag behind the rest of the market. Seems to me like a great buying opportunity…


Dash:

DASH/USD

DASH/BTC

Price: $86.09 (0.02164 BTC)

Market Cap: $744.379mn (187,161 BTC)

Thoughts: Much like the opportunity outlined in another golden-oldie (Litecoin) from a few weeks ago, Dash is now presenting a low-risk, high-reward entry for longer-term investment.

The Weekly chart for DASH/USD shows that price is now in an area that it rarely remains in for any great length of time; beneath the long-term range that remains trending upwards. Further, whilst I tend not to pay much attention to indicators, RSI is at its most oversold in the coin’s entire history. Couple this with the fact that price is inside a Weekly Bullish Orderblock and is kissing trendline resistance from the highs made in January 2018, and you have a high-probability entry.

DASH/BTC on the Weekly timeframe is even more interesting, with price having trade below the triple-top prior resistance that one would have expected to form strong support ~0.026 BTC. Price then also broke below trendline support from August 2014; very bearish, one would think. And yet, following this bearish price-action, we’ve seen a swift reversal from those levels and a breakout above trendline resistance that has been suppressing price since January 2018. Price is currently being capped by the Daily 200MA¬† and support turned resistance at 0.0233 BTC, but if the Weekly can reclaim the lost trendline support and close above 0.026 BTC over the coming weeks, I would be almost certain the cyclical bottom is in for Dash.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll get back to you!


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