Market Outlook #38

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #38 (3rd June 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 38th Market Outlook, albeit a day late.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, as well as providing updates on Tron and Cardano.

Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

4H:

Price: $8550

Market Cap: $151.815bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that I expect price to clear the ‘double top’ at ~$8400, given that such clean resistance often provides fuel for further upwards momentum.

This past week, price did exactly that, climbing above short-term resistance to new highs of $9100, where it topped out and rejected hard, dumping back below $8000 briefly. However, as can be seen on the Daily chart, price refused to close below this level, instead respecting it as a new area of prior resistance turned support. Now, we can also see that the parabolic advance is still just about in play, and until we get a clean break below trendline support on significant volume, I anticipate new highs later this week.

That being said, it is quite clear that such an advance cannot be sustained indefinitely, and it does appear that Bitcoin is losing steam on this particular rally, indicated by higher prices but declining RSI and volume. If we do break below that trendline support, I expect $8000 will be retested, and a close below that level would turn market structure bearish on the Daily timeframe. This would likely lead to a move back towards ~$7500.

Now, looking at the 4H chart, we can see that the move up to $9100, followed by the move to ~$8k, broke market structure on this timeframe. However, price recovered well, climbing back above $8500 and forming a lower high around $8800. I’m watching for a clean break of this lower high to indicate new highs on the way, or a break below $8300 to confirm a retest of $8000 support.

Bullish until proven otherwise, in short.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

4H:

ETHUSD4H

ETH/BTC

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

1H:

ETHBTC1H

Price: $264.97 (0.0309 BTC)

Market Cap: $28.175bn (3,300,678 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum did precisely what was expected of it last week, culminating in a huge market-wide shakeout before last weekend. Looking first at ETH/USD, however, we can see that price broke out of its bullish pennant on decent volume, finding new highs at $289, before it rejected and found support at $235; a huge move that concluded with the 4H closing above $250 and recovering prior resistance turned support at $260.

Now, looking at the Daily chart for ETH/BTC, we can see exactly where the volatility came in last week, sending prices down into the Daily Breaker, just below 0.03 BTC; a level I mentioned must hold for price-action to remain bullish. This level held firm, and price looks to be forming an extended swing-low preceding the next leg up. The 1H depicts trendline resistance that is currently holding price down, but I expect we shall see ETH/BTC make a move above 0.032 BTC over the coming days, turning short-term market structure bullish and beginning a new leg up.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $93.96 (0.01102 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.599bn (187,412 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero remains in consolidation, having broken above trendline resistance and formed a higher low at 0.0105 BTC upon retesting this resistance as support. As mentioned last week, we are watching for a Daily close above 0.012 BTC on significant volume as a signal for the cyclical bottom being in.


Tron:

TRX/BTC

Daily:

TRXBTCDaily

4H:

TRXBTC4H

Price: $0.037 (435 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.47bn (289,825 BTC)

Thoughts: Tron continues to look bullish and my margin long positions are paying off. From the Daily chart, we can see that price broke out above 4-month trendline resistance last week, with volume continuing to rise. However, price rejected at the 360-day moving average, but remains firmly above prior resistance turned support at 400 satoshis. In fact, Tron seems to have begun its own parabolic advance on the Daily timeframe, with the rally becoming steeper over the past few days.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see levels of resistance becoming support on the ascent, and I have marked out 500 satoshis as my target for this next leg.


Cardano:

ADA/BTC

Daily:

ADABTCDaily

Price: $0.093 (1094 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.418bn (283,616 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally, we come to Cardano, and there is a beautifully clean pattern playing out for those who enjoy trading patterns. We can see that ADA broke above trendline resistance a couple of weeks ago on good volume, and retraced to form a higher low. This rounded, protracted higher low is forming the Eve to early May’s Adam, with 1220 satoshis as the neckline for a breakout. There is also confluence of the 200-day moving average at this level, and, as such, a breakout above this level will likely be followed by dynamic expansion towards the 360-day moving average.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #36

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #36 (19th May 2019)

Welcome to the 36th Market Outlook. In this week’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus I’ll be taking a look at Cardano.

Bitcoin:

BTCUSDDaily

BTCUSD1H

Price: $7908

Market Cap: $140.048bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that the lower timeframes were indicative of a short-term top for Bitcoin, and that we may perhaps retest $7500 this past week before making a move back towards the $6800 area. Whilst we did indeed visit $6800, it was only briefly and only after price made new highs at $8400 a few days ago, having held onto the 4H parabola in place.

Looking at the Daily chart provided, we can see that Bitcoin has been capped at a prior level of resistance, forming a far too clean ‘double-top’ scenario. Further, the higher-timeframe parabolic advance is still very much in play, and the flash-crash into the high $6000s was met with a swift reversal and what looks to be a potential bullish continuation. Prior resistance was turned support at $6800 and the trend remains strong. Volume also doesn’t seem to have dropped off yet; as such, there is no indication that $8400 will hold BTC down for much longer…

Looking now at the Hourly chart provided, we can clearly see the current short-term market structure, where the flash crash to $6660 broke the bullish momentum briefly, but the reversal was relatively swift. Resistance turned support at $7600 has been reclaimed and price is lingering beneath local highs above $8k. I have depicted the bearish and bullish scenarios, but given the strength of the trend and the consistency of the volume, I am leaning bullish.

The bearish scenario would see price begin to break down on the lower timeframes, ultimately making a move back towards that pivot at $7600. If this level was lost again, I’d expect price to move back towards $6700. Price is essentially range-bound for now between $6660 and $8400, with $7600 acting as the range equilibrium.

The bullish scenario is a simple one; some consolidation early next week followed by a move above $8400. This is what I expect to see.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETHUSDDaily

ETHUSD4H

ETH/BTC

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $252.24 (0.03206 BTC)

Market Cap: $26.771bn (3,403,218 BTC)

Thoughts: Unlike my thoughts on Bitcoin from last week’s post, my expectations of Ethereum played out near-perfectly, if a little more explosively than anticipated. We saw a sharp reversal for ETH/BTC, and thus a bullish continuation on ETH/USD.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see how significant the volume is on ETH/USD at present, with volume equalling that of December 2017 on Coinbase. Price also closed above the 360-day moving average, and I have depicted the path to the next area of significant resistance. I doubt we’ll see much of a retrace prior to $350 being hit.

From the 4H ETH/USD chart, we can see the bullish break in market structure when price closed above $250. A pullback and continuation would be the expected course from here.

Finally, the Daily chart for ETH/BTC paints quite a picture. Most significantly, we have likely now found the cyclical bottom for Ethereum at 0.0246 BTC, indicated by the sharp reversal away from that level on heavy volume, in the process of which market structure on the Daily timeframe turned bullish, a level of prior support turned resistance was reclaimed at 0.0305 BTC and the 200-day moving average was reclaimed.

Trendline resistance is the next port-of-call for ETH/BTC, I believe, and a move above 0.035 BTC would herald the beginning of a new bull cycle and the likely breakout above 0.042 BTC in the coming weeks.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $86.26 (0.01087 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.465bn (184,719 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero found support at a critical level this past week: 0.01 BTC. Following this, price broke out above trendline resistance, though not as dynamically as the reversals on other altcoins. Range support has become resistance at 0.012 BTC, and price will need to reclaim this level for 0.01 BTC to be confirmed as Monero’s cyclical bottom.


Cardano:

ADA/USD

ADAUSDDaily

ADA/BTC

ADABTCDaily

ADABTC4H

Price: $0.085 (1067 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.194bn (276,732 BTC)

Thoughts: I don’t think I’ve ever analyed Cardano on the blog, but it’s current price-action presents a great opportunity, in my opinion; in particular because it is one of the few altcoins on BitMex, and a leveraged long on a potential cyclical bottom is an attractive idea. Now, I rarely ever trade on leverage, but there are rare occasions where it makes a lot of sense to do so.

Looking first at the ADA/USD Daily chart, we can see the strength of trendline support and the fact that price bounced off the 200-day moving average recently on solid volume. We can also see the resistance at $0.10.

More important, however, is the ADA/BTC chart, which shows price finding a bottom at 911 satoshis, above the December 2018 low of 834 satoshis. Following this, price bounced hard and broke out above the trendline resistance that has been in play since April. Currently, the 200-day MA is capping price, but, given the bullish market structure on ETH/BTC, I expect ADA will follow suit once ETH begins moving up again.

Looking at the 4H chart, we can see the clean break above trendline resistance, as well as the bullish market structure break above 1058 satoshis on high volume. An entry here with a stop-loss at 900 satoshis and a target of 1950 satoshis (the local high from April) present a 6:1 reward-to-risk opportunity, unleveraged. Add in some low leverage and you have an opportunity for some very high returns.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.