Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #5

Market Outlook #5 (7th October 2018)

The entire market is in what seems to be a coma, though I imagine it will prove to be the calm before the storm. Volatility is at yearly lows across-the-board, and whatever follows is sure to be explosive. In this fifth installment of the Market Outlook series, I will provide some updated thoughts on Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, though there has been very little price-action of note on all three. I will also be taking a look at two coins that I am very interested in for the next three to six months: Geo and BlockNet. Both are altcoins with legitimate use-cases, and, in the case of Geo, an in-real-life user-base of over 5000; a rarity amongst lowcaps. Both present strong opportunities for profit at current prices, given a sufficient time-frame, and I am actively accumulating them.

On with the show:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6570

Market Cap: $113.622bn

Thoughts: Price is fast-approaching the end-point of an ever-tightening range, with a breakout above long-term trendline resistance within spitting distance. The past few days have seen price consolidate around the $6500 area, sitting just below a significant area of support turned resistance ~$6800. I still expect to see a bullish breakout as opposed to a bearish one, and a weekly close above $7500 would potentially confirm a reversal of the previous 10 months of bearish movement. The triangle ends in a week or so, and I’d anticipate dynamic price-action prior to that moment.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $113.30 (0.0173 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.865bn (285,702 BTC)

Thoughts: Similarly to Bitcoin, Monero’s recent price-action has been equally lethargic, with short-term ranges being held for both, XMR/USD, and XMR/BTC. Resistance has formed around 0.019 BTC, and a measured continuation of the initial reversal would find XMR/BTC breaking out above this level to tackle resistance at 0.022 BTC over the next two weeks. Things are playing out far slower than one would wish, but periods of protracted volatility only lead to periods of extensive, explosive movement. Stay tuned.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $223.75 (0.034 BTC)

Market Cap: $22.917bn (3,494,437 BTC)

Thoughts: Last week, I primarily posted charts from lower time-frames, as there was much more going on at the micro level; but, given the past week’s inertia, I think zooming out onto the daily reveals a fair bit, especially since the first Market Outlook. This is most true of Ethereum. Following a downtrend that got exponentially more bloody across many months, we saw a sharp bounce and reversal, culminating in a trendline breakout on exceptionally high volume. This reversal has not failed as of yet, and, despite the failure of the bull flag painted on the 4H from last week’s Market Outlook, price has held above short and mid-term breakout levels. The 4H ETH/USD chart also depicts a symmetrical triangle drawing to its close, and I’ve highlighted the area I am expecting to be targeted when the range is broken.


GeoCoin:

GEO/BTC

Price: $0.56 (8510 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.769mn (271 BTC)

Thoughts: We move onto more exciting opportunities following those three slugs… GeoCoin in a very promising position for future profit, especially when you glance at the weekly. Buying at current prices has led to profit every single market cycle for over two years. Repeat that to yourself. You can take a look into fundamentals for yourself, but the project has over 5,000 active users of its primary use-case (a game that involves exploring real-world locations to find GEO). Couple that with the current range being held for over 10 weeks, within a weekly bullish orderblock, and we have a strong opportunity in front of us.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $4.39 (0.00067340 BTC)

Market Cap: $23.58mn (3,616 BTC)

Thoughts: The BLOCK weekly chart is one of particular interest, as it just closed its first bullish week in the last 10 weeks. This ocurred at an area of significant prior resistance, which I expect to become a new floor. Volume is still low, especially so considering this is a high-cap (just about), but the daily chart is showing a recent uptick in volume, as well as a breakout from 4-month trendline resistance.

That concludes the fifth Market Outlook instalment. I’ll be sure to answer any questions you have in the Comments section.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.