Market Outlook #34 (Altcoin Special)

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Market Outlook #34 (7th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to part two of this week’s Market Outlook. For those who missed the first part, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Dash in extensive detail, you can find it here.

In this post, however, I will be covering Stratis, Komodo, Ark and Ardor. These are four of the larger mid-to-largecap altcoins I’m invested in, and I think they largely reflect the nature of most of the altcoin market at present.

Strangely, whilst most of the market is at ALT/BTC lows, I do not think the bloodshed is quite over yet, as my expectations for an imminent short-term top in Bitcoin give me reason to believe we’ll see more blood when BTC retraces. Altcoins will have their time to shine, but it’ll take either a period of consolidation or a slow and steady rise in Bitcoin (above the $6k resistance) before that occurs. Volatility and uncertainty in Bitcoin is generally not so good for alts…

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRATUSDWeekly

STRATUSDDaily

STRAT/BTC

STRATBTCWeekly

STRATBTCDaily

Price: $0.82 (13787 satoshis)

Market Cap: $81.175mn (13,693 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has a lot going for it fundamentally (as do the rest of the four coins featured in this post) but its chart now looks horrific. Just two weeks ago, it was one of the stronger looking charts…

Now, let us take a look at the Weekly chart for STRAT/USD for some context:

Trendline resistance that was in play for a year was broken going into 2019 and price successfully retested it in January. As such, there is a strong possibility that the cyclical low was formed at $0.53 last year. Since then price has found resistance at an historical level of support, $1.34.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see the breakout from trendline resistance occurred on high volume and that mid-term support has formed around $0.73. However, STRAT’s climb above the 200-day moving average was shortlived and price now sits in a precarious position with at least 30% of room to fall before it reaches the low from December 2018. If Bitcoin does retrace towards the low $4k area, STRAT/USD would undoubtedly be dragged down towards this potential support level.

STRAT/BTC looked rather comfortable above 21k satoshis in April, but, looking at its Weekly chart, we can see that it now looks a little grim:

18-month trendline resistance was broken in December, and price found resistance at support turned resistance around 40k satoshis. Following this, it retraced towards 21k satoshis where it sat, presumably in re-accumulation, for a couple of months. However, late April brought with it a breakdown from this support level and price has continued to fall, breaking and closing the Weekly below the November low of 15k satoshis. It seems to me to be painting something of a spring as it seeks to test the trendline resistance as support once more, though this time around 12k satoshis.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see where price lost the 200-day moving average followed by a fall through the significant 0.0002 BTC level. The subsequent sell-off has been steep but very low in volume, indicating that a move into historical resistance at 12k satoshis from 2017 will likely be a good place to buy. However, low-risk buyers would wait for a rejection and break of the bearish market structure before an entry. I have depicted the path I expect Stratis to take on its Weekly chart, though I expect movements to be more explosive than shown if late Q2/early Q3 is when alts get some relief.


Komodo:

KMD/USD

KMD/BTC

KMDBTCWeekly

KMDBTCDaily

Price: $1.10 (18567 satoshis)

Market Cap: $124.511mn (21,000 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo looks relatively strong compared to other alts, though it suffered from a great deal of downside of late too. Looking at KMD/USD on the Weekly timeframe, it is evident that price is lingering around serious resistance but remains above its 20-week moving average. Again, given the significant relationship between Bitcoin’s price at ALT/USD prices, I expect KMD/USD to be dragged back towards trendline support (and perhaps briefly under it) as Bitcoin finds a short-term top.

Now, let’s take a look at the Weekly chart for KMD/BTC:

10-month trendline resistance was broken and retested prior to 2019, after which price rose steadily, respecting its trendline support. It found resistance at prior support around 28k satoshis, retracing hard towards the trendline, which then gave way. What has followed is a move back into what is clearly an area of historical accumulation for all of Komodo’s bull cycles.

From the Daily chart, we can see that price is lingering within this range, above support at 17500 satoshis, but if Bitcoin sneezes I expect this level to give way and KMD to move towards 15700 satoshis. I do, however, expect the November low at 13400 satoshis to remain intact as a cyclical low. A move above 21500 satoshis would confirm the reversal.


Ark:

ARK/USD

ARKUSDWeekly

ARKBTCWeekly

ARK/BTC

ARKBTCWeekly

ARKBTCDaily

Price: $0.49 (8191 satoshis)

Market Cap: $54.54mn (9,178 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is another coin that looked very strong against Bitcoin in Q1 but has suffered a deep retracement towards November lows.

The Weekly chart for ARK/USD depicts the breakout above support turned resistance at $0.50 and the 20-week moving average in Q1, following which price found resistance at $0.90. It has since fallen towards trendline support and the 20-week moving average has been lost. Further, it is sitting at the reclaimed level of support at $0.50.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see price flirting with trendline support, but also that the 200-day moving average has also been lost. Multiple Daily closes below support indicate that there is further downside to be had, and a close below $0.45 would open up a move towards $0.36.

But what about ARK/BTC? Well, as can be seen in the Weekly chart, price is sitting just above the first ever Weekly orderblock, which preceded the 2017 bull cycle. This is likely a great area for low-risk, high-reward accumulation, and the successive bearish Weekly candles suggest to me that we will see the local low at 7300 satoshis taken out before price rejects, acting as a spring for a new cycle to begin.

I have depicted this on the Daily chart, where we can also see the series of significant levels of support that have been lost recently. A move back above 9500 satoshis would indicate that a bottom has been found, but I expect we shall see price wick below 7k before that happens.


Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDRUSDWeekly

ARDRUSDDaily

ARDR/BTC

ARDRBTCWeekly

ARDRBTCDaily

Price: $0.07 (1176 satoshis)

Market Cap: $69.6mn (11,753 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally, we have Ardor. One particularly interesting feature of Ardor’s price-history can be found on the Weekly chart for ARDR/USD, where I have depicted a very similar fractal that seems to be playing out from late 2016/early 2017. Further, the 5-month trendline support is being respected by the Weekly candles, but its fortunes are largely tied to the movement of Bitcoin. We can clearly see numerous levels of support becoming resistance, with the most recent resistance found at $0.09.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see that there is actually a little room to fall before Ardor tests its trendline support against the Dollar. Further, it also just about holding onto its 200-day moving average and holding above resistance turned support at $0.067. However, again, unless Ardor massively outperforms Bitcoin, a retracement in BTC/USD will certainly bring ARDR/USD below these areas of support, perhaps towards $0.50.

The ARDR/BTC chart, however, is a work of art, as price has moved back into the original accumulation zone from 2016. I have painted a price trajectory on the Weekly chart. It is, however, paramount that Ardor holds above 900 satoshis, which is its all-time low. A move below that would open up bearish price discovery. Whilst Ardor holds within this range, it is likely a rewarding opportunity to accumulate.

Finally, looking at the Daily chart, I have shown where Ardor broke its uptrend against Bitcoin and lost its 200-day moving average. The subsequent dump has been extensive, bringing price all the way back to the November low above 1100 satoshis. The recent rejection of a move below this does suggest that a double bottom may be forming, but I expect this low will be swept in a similar spring-like fashion to that which we are seeing across-the-board in alts.

And that concludes this lengthy second part to this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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Market Outlook #26

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #26 (10th March 2019)

Welcome to the 26th Market Outlook.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Ark.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3975

Market Cap: $69.884bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that Bitcoin was trading within what was effectively no man’s land, with market structure on the 4H chart bearish but resistance turned support at ~$3750 holding firm.

We have since seen price return to more bullish movements with a rejection away from moving below this support level. That said, as can be seen on the Daily chart, volume has been declining somewhat this past week. Overall, price remains capped by the range resistance below $4300.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see the 200MA acting as support, with price failing to close below it for the past month. Plus, whilst we have seen a 4H close above $3950, thus reclaiming the level lost back at the end of February, we now need to see some follow through; a move back above $4050 on significant volume would suggest another test of the range resistance is imminent.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $136.38 (0.0346 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.344bn (3,647,820 BTC)

Thoughts: As mentioned in last week’s post, ETH/BTC was setting up for a retest of its Daily 200MA. This retest occurred this past week and price rejected a move below, cementing my mid-term bullish outlook for Ethereum.

ETH/USD, however, remains capped by its Daily 200MA, and also by support turned resistance at ~$170. That said, it is clear to see the ascending triangle forming, with 3-month trendline support intact. Looking at the 4H, I expect to see price break above short-term resistance at $144 this coming week, and for $170 to be retested before the end of the month.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.52 (0.01285 BTC)

Market Cap: $851.041mn (216,518 BTC)

Thoughts: I wonder which Market Outlook it’ll be when I can finally provide more here than the now-expected “Monero remains in accumulation.” PerhapsĀ before the end of the month, but, to be honest, I’m quite happy with Monero remaining range-bound for as long as it needs to. Importantly, volume remains high.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.59 (15333 satoshis)

Market Cap: $64.761mn (16,463 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark looks to be leading the pack amongst the smaller large-cap altcoins, which is where I believe the profits from the current movements in alts like Litecoin and BNB will flow to over the coming weeks.

Price continues to make higher-highs and higher-lows on the Daily chart, remaining well above the Daily 200MA. Support turned resistance at ~18,500 satoshis is currently capping price, with no higher timeframe close above this level. I fully expect this high to be taken out sooner rather than later, with subsequent resistance forming at ~26,000 satoshis.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!

Do feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #19

Market Outlook #19 (20th January 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 19th Market Outlook. Unlike in last week’s post, where we had a lot to talk about, this past week has seen the market as a whole in consolidation. That being said, there is some interesting action taking place on the 4-hour timeframe, so much of this Market Outlook is focused on that.

As usual, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, and concluding the post with a look at a couple of altcoins: namely, Ark and HyperSpace. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Bullish Scenario:

Bearish Scenario:

Price: $3732

Market Cap: $65.269bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin, despite moving within a limited range for the past week, is in a very interesting position. I have depicted a bullish and bearish scenario for price-action moving forward, though I am leaning more towards the bullish scenario for reasons that will become obvious.

In the bullish scenario, the first chart I’ve printed is a rarity; as regular readers will know, I don’t often use indicators, but the 200 MA is one of significance, and the Weekly 200 MA has been respected by Bitcoin since before 2014. We can only see the moving average up until the summer of 2015, as there is not enough data to see further back, but BTC/USD has pretty much always trailed above this average. We can also see that the dump to new lows from back at $6k found its bottom exactly where the Weekly 200 MA resides. In 2015, when price reached this moving average, it began its slow but clear reversal.

Now, looking at the Daily, we can see that price remains above the prior resistance turned support. It has consolidated in a tight range over the past week, and the 4H depicts the stop run that led to market structure being broken to the upside at the beginning of the week. Further, we can see that there is a double top waiting at ~$4200, and price is continuing to make a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. If this bullish scenario is to play out, I’d anticipate a dump back below $3700 before a swift rejection and new highs above $3900, leading to that double top being taken out.

In the bearish scenario, the Daily shows price trading up into a bearish orderblock and forming lower-highs and lower-lows from this point. Price then dumped below ~$3900 last week, before consolidating this past week. The 4H shows the potential mechanics of this bearish scenario, with the uptrend being broken after the triple top was swept at $4100. This was a shift to bearish market structure, and price recently traded up towards the 4H breaker. From here, I would anticipate that wick to be swept before new lows below $3550 are made, eventually targeting $3200.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $124.35 (0.03328 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.991bn (3,477,392 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/BTC broke above the short-term trendline resistance on significant volume at the beginning of the week, and has since consolidated in a range between 0.033 BTC and 0.034 BTC. There’s not all that much to say here given the lack of price-action of late, but last week’s scenario is one that I am still confident in, with this consoldation proving but a period of respite before new highs are attempted.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $46.15 (0.01235 BTC)

Market Cap: $772.324bn (206,811 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero is in a world of its own at the moment with how little it is giving away as to its direction moving forward. Higher-lows are being met by lower-highs, in an ever-contracting range. There is liquidity both to the upside and the downside, as the vast majority of these swing-low-and-highs remain intact. Trendline support has become resistance, but price is trailing very close to it and has not rejected in the manner that it usually would from a level of resistance. To return to bullish market structure, price must reclaim both the trendline resistance and the prior support turned resistance just below 0.013 BTC.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.43 (11512 satoshis)

Market Cap: $46.346mn (12,411 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark looks like its forming a beautiful cyclical low in this range between 9000 and 13000 satoshis. There are numerous high-volume buyups taking place, and higher swing-lows are forming on the Daily. I expect this range to last a little while longer before price breaks out above 13k and confirms a reversal. The next resistance level would be 19k satoshis – a level of prior support from July 2018.


HyperSpace:

AMP/BTC

Price: $0.019 (498 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.87mn (502 BTC)

Thoughts: HyperSpace has some fundamental reasoning behind its unsually high-volume buyups, with its recent rebrand from Synereo and the beta launch of its content-sharing platform imminent; one which will reward content creators with AMP. Over the past month, AMP has seen over 20% of its circulating supply be traded, and market structure is beautifully clean for such a small coin. Prior range supports have become more recent range resistance, and there’s even a capitulation wick preceding the massive buyups. I can’t make an accurate guess as to when AMP will reverse and break out above 750 satoshis, but I expect this to have an explosive pump when it does.

That concludes this 19th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it somewhat useful. Please feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll answer them as best I can!


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.