Market Outlook #26

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Market Outlook #26 (10th March 2019)

Welcome to the 26th Market Outlook.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Ark.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3975

Market Cap: $69.884bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that Bitcoin was trading within what was effectively no man’s land, with market structure on the 4H chart bearish but resistance turned support at ~$3750 holding firm.

We have since seen price return to more bullish movements with a rejection away from moving below this support level. That said, as can be seen on the Daily chart, volume has been declining somewhat this past week. Overall, price remains capped by the range resistance below $4300.

Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see the 200MA acting as support, with price failing to close below it for the past month. Plus, whilst we have seen a 4H close above $3950, thus reclaiming the level lost back at the end of February, we now need to see some follow through; a move back above $4050 on significant volume would suggest another test of the range resistance is imminent.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $136.38 (0.0346 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.344bn (3,647,820 BTC)

Thoughts: As mentioned in last week’s post, ETH/BTC was setting up for a retest of its Daily 200MA. This retest occurred this past week and price rejected a move below, cementing my mid-term bullish outlook for Ethereum.

ETH/USD, however, remains capped by its Daily 200MA, and also by support turned resistance at ~$170. That said, it is clear to see the ascending triangle forming, with 3-month trendline support intact. Looking at the 4H, I expect to see price break above short-term resistance at $144 this coming week, and for $170 to be retested before the end of the month.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.52 (0.01285 BTC)

Market Cap: $851.041mn (216,518 BTC)

Thoughts: I wonder which Market Outlook it’ll be when I can finally provide more here than the now-expected “Monero remains in accumulation.” Perhaps before the end of the month, but, to be honest, I’m quite happy with Monero remaining range-bound for as long as it needs to. Importantly, volume remains high.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.59 (15333 satoshis)

Market Cap: $64.761mn (16,463 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark looks to be leading the pack amongst the smaller large-cap altcoins, which is where I believe the profits from the current movements in alts like Litecoin and BNB will flow to over the coming weeks.

Price continues to make higher-highs and higher-lows on the Daily chart, remaining well above the Daily 200MA. Support turned resistance at ~18,500 satoshis is currently capping price, with no higher timeframe close above this level. I fully expect this high to be taken out sooner rather than later, with subsequent resistance forming at ~26,000 satoshis.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!

Do feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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Market Outlook #19

Market Outlook #19 (20th January 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 19th Market Outlook. Unlike in last week’s post, where we had a lot to talk about, this past week has seen the market as a whole in consolidation. That being said, there is some interesting action taking place on the 4-hour timeframe, so much of this Market Outlook is focused on that.

As usual, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, and concluding the post with a look at a couple of altcoins: namely, Ark and HyperSpace. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Bullish Scenario:

Bearish Scenario:

Price: $3732

Market Cap: $65.269bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin, despite moving within a limited range for the past week, is in a very interesting position. I have depicted a bullish and bearish scenario for price-action moving forward, though I am leaning more towards the bullish scenario for reasons that will become obvious.

In the bullish scenario, the first chart I’ve printed is a rarity; as regular readers will know, I don’t often use indicators, but the 200 MA is one of significance, and the Weekly 200 MA has been respected by Bitcoin since before 2014. We can only see the moving average up until the summer of 2015, as there is not enough data to see further back, but BTC/USD has pretty much always trailed above this average. We can also see that the dump to new lows from back at $6k found its bottom exactly where the Weekly 200 MA resides. In 2015, when price reached this moving average, it began its slow but clear reversal.

Now, looking at the Daily, we can see that price remains above the prior resistance turned support. It has consolidated in a tight range over the past week, and the 4H depicts the stop run that led to market structure being broken to the upside at the beginning of the week. Further, we can see that there is a double top waiting at ~$4200, and price is continuing to make a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. If this bullish scenario is to play out, I’d anticipate a dump back below $3700 before a swift rejection and new highs above $3900, leading to that double top being taken out.

In the bearish scenario, the Daily shows price trading up into a bearish orderblock and forming lower-highs and lower-lows from this point. Price then dumped below ~$3900 last week, before consolidating this past week. The 4H shows the potential mechanics of this bearish scenario, with the uptrend being broken after the triple top was swept at $4100. This was a shift to bearish market structure, and price recently traded up towards the 4H breaker. From here, I would anticipate that wick to be swept before new lows below $3550 are made, eventually targeting $3200.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $124.35 (0.03328 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.991bn (3,477,392 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/BTC broke above the short-term trendline resistance on significant volume at the beginning of the week, and has since consolidated in a range between 0.033 BTC and 0.034 BTC. There’s not all that much to say here given the lack of price-action of late, but last week’s scenario is one that I am still confident in, with this consoldation proving but a period of respite before new highs are attempted.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $46.15 (0.01235 BTC)

Market Cap: $772.324bn (206,811 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero is in a world of its own at the moment with how little it is giving away as to its direction moving forward. Higher-lows are being met by lower-highs, in an ever-contracting range. There is liquidity both to the upside and the downside, as the vast majority of these swing-low-and-highs remain intact. Trendline support has become resistance, but price is trailing very close to it and has not rejected in the manner that it usually would from a level of resistance. To return to bullish market structure, price must reclaim both the trendline resistance and the prior support turned resistance just below 0.013 BTC.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.43 (11512 satoshis)

Market Cap: $46.346mn (12,411 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark looks like its forming a beautiful cyclical low in this range between 9000 and 13000 satoshis. There are numerous high-volume buyups taking place, and higher swing-lows are forming on the Daily. I expect this range to last a little while longer before price breaks out above 13k and confirms a reversal. The next resistance level would be 19k satoshis – a level of prior support from July 2018.


HyperSpace:

AMP/BTC

Price: $0.019 (498 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.87mn (502 BTC)

Thoughts: HyperSpace has some fundamental reasoning behind its unsually high-volume buyups, with its recent rebrand from Synereo and the beta launch of its content-sharing platform imminent; one which will reward content creators with AMP. Over the past month, AMP has seen over 20% of its circulating supply be traded, and market structure is beautifully clean for such a small coin. Prior range supports have become more recent range resistance, and there’s even a capitulation wick preceding the massive buyups. I can’t make an accurate guess as to when AMP will reverse and break out above 750 satoshis, but I expect this to have an explosive pump when it does.

That concludes this 19th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it somewhat useful. Please feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll answer them as best I can!


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Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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