Market Outlook #34 (Altcoin Special)

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Market Outlook #34 (7th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to part two of this week’s Market Outlook. For those who missed the first part, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Dash in extensive detail, you can find it here.

In this post, however, I will be covering Stratis, Komodo, Ark and Ardor. These are four of the larger mid-to-largecap altcoins I’m invested in, and I think they largely reflect the nature of most of the altcoin market at present.

Strangely, whilst most of the market is at ALT/BTC lows, I do not think the bloodshed is quite over yet, as my expectations for an imminent short-term top in Bitcoin give me reason to believe we’ll see more blood when BTC retraces. Altcoins will have their time to shine, but it’ll take either a period of consolidation or a slow and steady rise in Bitcoin (above the $6k resistance) before that occurs. Volatility and uncertainty in Bitcoin is generally not so good for alts…

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRATUSDWeekly

STRATUSDDaily

STRAT/BTC

STRATBTCWeekly

STRATBTCDaily

Price: $0.82 (13787 satoshis)

Market Cap: $81.175mn (13,693 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has a lot going for it fundamentally (as do the rest of the four coins featured in this post) but its chart now looks horrific. Just two weeks ago, it was one of the stronger looking charts…

Now, let us take a look at the Weekly chart for STRAT/USD for some context:

Trendline resistance that was in play for a year was broken going into 2019 and price successfully retested it in January. As such, there is a strong possibility that the cyclical low was formed at $0.53 last year. Since then price has found resistance at an historical level of support, $1.34.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see the breakout from trendline resistance occurred on high volume and that mid-term support has formed around $0.73. However, STRAT’s climb above the 200-day moving average was shortlived and price now sits in a precarious position with at least 30% of room to fall before it reaches the low from December 2018. If Bitcoin does retrace towards the low $4k area, STRAT/USD would undoubtedly be dragged down towards this potential support level.

STRAT/BTC looked rather comfortable above 21k satoshis in April, but, looking at its Weekly chart, we can see that it now looks a little grim:

18-month trendline resistance was broken in December, and price found resistance at support turned resistance around 40k satoshis. Following this, it retraced towards 21k satoshis where it sat, presumably in re-accumulation, for a couple of months. However, late April brought with it a breakdown from this support level and price has continued to fall, breaking and closing the Weekly below the November low of 15k satoshis. It seems to me to be painting something of a spring as it seeks to test the trendline resistance as support once more, though this time around 12k satoshis.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see where price lost the 200-day moving average followed by a fall through the significant 0.0002 BTC level. The subsequent sell-off has been steep but very low in volume, indicating that a move into historical resistance at 12k satoshis from 2017 will likely be a good place to buy. However, low-risk buyers would wait for a rejection and break of the bearish market structure before an entry. I have depicted the path I expect Stratis to take on its Weekly chart, though I expect movements to be more explosive than shown if late Q2/early Q3 is when alts get some relief.


Komodo:

KMD/USD

KMD/BTC

KMDBTCWeekly

KMDBTCDaily

Price: $1.10 (18567 satoshis)

Market Cap: $124.511mn (21,000 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo looks relatively strong compared to other alts, though it suffered from a great deal of downside of late too. Looking at KMD/USD on the Weekly timeframe, it is evident that price is lingering around serious resistance but remains above its 20-week moving average. Again, given the significant relationship between Bitcoin’s price at ALT/USD prices, I expect KMD/USD to be dragged back towards trendline support (and perhaps briefly under it) as Bitcoin finds a short-term top.

Now, let’s take a look at the Weekly chart for KMD/BTC:

10-month trendline resistance was broken and retested prior to 2019, after which price rose steadily, respecting its trendline support. It found resistance at prior support around 28k satoshis, retracing hard towards the trendline, which then gave way. What has followed is a move back into what is clearly an area of historical accumulation for all of Komodo’s bull cycles.

From the Daily chart, we can see that price is lingering within this range, above support at 17500 satoshis, but if Bitcoin sneezes I expect this level to give way and KMD to move towards 15700 satoshis. I do, however, expect the November low at 13400 satoshis to remain intact as a cyclical low. A move above 21500 satoshis would confirm the reversal.


Ark:

ARK/USD

ARKUSDWeekly

ARKBTCWeekly

ARK/BTC

ARKBTCWeekly

ARKBTCDaily

Price: $0.49 (8191 satoshis)

Market Cap: $54.54mn (9,178 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is another coin that looked very strong against Bitcoin in Q1 but has suffered a deep retracement towards November lows.

The Weekly chart for ARK/USD depicts the breakout above support turned resistance at $0.50 and the 20-week moving average in Q1, following which price found resistance at $0.90. It has since fallen towards trendline support and the 20-week moving average has been lost. Further, it is sitting at the reclaimed level of support at $0.50.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see price flirting with trendline support, but also that the 200-day moving average has also been lost. Multiple Daily closes below support indicate that there is further downside to be had, and a close below $0.45 would open up a move towards $0.36.

But what about ARK/BTC? Well, as can be seen in the Weekly chart, price is sitting just above the first ever Weekly orderblock, which preceded the 2017 bull cycle. This is likely a great area for low-risk, high-reward accumulation, and the successive bearish Weekly candles suggest to me that we will see the local low at 7300 satoshis taken out before price rejects, acting as a spring for a new cycle to begin.

I have depicted this on the Daily chart, where we can also see the series of significant levels of support that have been lost recently. A move back above 9500 satoshis would indicate that a bottom has been found, but I expect we shall see price wick below 7k before that happens.


Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDRUSDWeekly

ARDRUSDDaily

ARDR/BTC

ARDRBTCWeekly

ARDRBTCDaily

Price: $0.07 (1176 satoshis)

Market Cap: $69.6mn (11,753 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally, we have Ardor. One particularly interesting feature of Ardor’s price-history can be found on the Weekly chart for ARDR/USD, where I have depicted a very similar fractal that seems to be playing out from late 2016/early 2017. Further, the 5-month trendline support is being respected by the Weekly candles, but its fortunes are largely tied to the movement of Bitcoin. We can clearly see numerous levels of support becoming resistance, with the most recent resistance found at $0.09.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see that there is actually a little room to fall before Ardor tests its trendline support against the Dollar. Further, it also just about holding onto its 200-day moving average and holding above resistance turned support at $0.067. However, again, unless Ardor massively outperforms Bitcoin, a retracement in BTC/USD will certainly bring ARDR/USD below these areas of support, perhaps towards $0.50.

The ARDR/BTC chart, however, is a work of art, as price has moved back into the original accumulation zone from 2016. I have painted a price trajectory on the Weekly chart. It is, however, paramount that Ardor holds above 900 satoshis, which is its all-time low. A move below that would open up bearish price discovery. Whilst Ardor holds within this range, it is likely a rewarding opportunity to accumulate.

Finally, looking at the Daily chart, I have shown where Ardor broke its uptrend against Bitcoin and lost its 200-day moving average. The subsequent dump has been extensive, bringing price all the way back to the November low above 1100 satoshis. The recent rejection of a move below this does suggest that a double bottom may be forming, but I expect this low will be swept in a similar spring-like fashion to that which we are seeing across-the-board in alts.

And that concludes this lengthy second part to this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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Market Outlook #4

Market Outlook #4 (30th September 2018)

Man, this past week seems to have flown by. That said, it seems to have been a week of less interesting price-action than I had anticipated; most altcoins are range-bound at the moment, but Ethereum most certainly is not. In this week’s Market Outlook, I will run through some updates on Bitcoin, Monero, and, of course, Ethereum, given the immaculate bullish market structure forming on its chart. Further, I’ll be looking at Ardor and how its price-action has progressed since its appearance in my first Market Outlook, as well as a mid-cap altcoin that has recently come onto my radar because of the extremely high reward-to-risk opportunity presented by it: Bulwark.

Anyway, let’s crack on.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6590

Market Cap: $114.142bn

Thoughts: Little has ocurred since last week’s Market Outlook, and Bitcoin’s price-action remains choppy but ultimately bullish. Last week closed strong, and price has since formed a short-term ‘double top’ around $6850. Of course, double tops are often just a tool for engineering liquidity, but given that the ~$6800 zone has been so significant recently (switching between support and resistance numerous times over previous months), I think one must exercise caution in any assumption that it will be taken out. I maintain my belief that the worst is over, but with long-term trendline resistance approaching very soon, we’ll find out if I’m right or wrong. However, looking at the 4H, it seems to me that we’ll see a move above $6850 over the next few days; hopefully accompanied by heavy volume.


Monero:

XMR/USD

Price: $115.28 (0.01752 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.896bn (288,229 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero is moving slower than I expected, and another week goes by without a re-test of ~$150 resistance. This is to be expected, however, when Bitcoin’s price-action is taken into consideration. Local stops have been swept, and an ascending triangle has definitely formed. I would like to see a Daily close above $125 on good volume to confirm bullish continuation.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $232.78 (0.03538 BTC)

Market Cap: $23.808bn (3,618,822 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum is currently the coin that I’m paying most attention to, simply because there is a lot going on. A glance at the 4H for ETH/USD shows continual formation of bullish market structure, with consecutive high-volume trendline breakouts and the prior resistance ~$210-220 holding as local support. ETH/BTC is even more bullish, with a very strong breakout occuring recently on high volume, and price forming a perfect bull-flag on the 2H. 0.04 BTC looks to be the next resistance.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.12 (1860 satoshis)

Market Cap: $123.022mn (18,572 BTC)

Thoughts: Since the first Market Outlook, I have filled my position in Ardor, and recent price-action suggests that I was correct in buying ~1500 satoshis. There are very clearly delineated levels of prior support and resistance to map out potential future price-action; in particular, I am looking at ~3000 satoshis as the next major resistance. However, volume remains low (though increasing), and I’d like to see a breakout above 2100 satoshis sustained with greater volume. This would be the first major indication that a longer-term reversal has occured.


Bulwark:

BWK/BTC

Price: $0.79 (11969 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.556mn (1,439 BTC)

Thoughts: Bulwark recently came onto my radar thanks to price-action being rangebound between 9k-18k satoshis for over half a year. That is a very long time for price to remain within a range, especially considering the past 210 days have been a period of ceaseless bleeding of the vast majority of altcoins. Not Bulwark, though. Accumulation of a position around 12k satoshis offers a potential 27:1 reward-to-risk ratio, with an exit of the position occuring if price closed the Daily below 8k satoshis (10% below the low of the range). That’s about as sexy as it gets. Oh wait, no, it gets better: Bulwark also offers ~90% annual returns for masternode holders.

I hope you’ve found this post useful. I’m looking forward to this coming week…

If you have any questions or thoughts, feel free to leave them in the Comments section.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.