Market Outlook #12 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #12 (19th November 2018)

So, following on from Saturday’s Market Outlook, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, this twelfth instalment of the series will be an ‘Altcoin Special’. In that previous post, I mentioned that we’d likely be seeing some new lows on the big three, and this morning brought with it a fresh load of blood. ETH/USD, in particular, has broken below September support. But we’ll save all that messiness for next weekend’s Market Outlook.

In this post, I’ll be covering a dozen altcoins, looking at the strength or weakness they’ve shown during the past week of destructive price-action in Bitcoin. Some coins seem to have fared surprisingly well; others, less so. In order, I’ll be looking at Stratis, Ardor, Ubiq, SALT, Ark, Waves, BlockNet, Siacoin, Komodo, ALQO, FoldingCoin and Musicoin.

Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.89 (17222 satoshis)

Market Cap: $87.909mn (17,067 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has recently dropped below the range it had formed, sweeping the low it made in August. Despite this, the Daily chart has yet to close below 18k satoshis. I will be watching the next 48 hours of price-action like a hawk, as STRAT is a large-cap, and thus is not included in my fixed-risk approach. *If* we do close below that August low, I will be exiting my position and waiting on a new range to form before re-entering. Fundamentals are solid for Stratis, so it would pain me to not be holding any.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.067 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.956mn (12,999 BTC)

Thoughts: Price has broken down from the range, closing below the support turned resistance levels between 1580-1720 satoshis. This break down has been followed by further bleeding, and the September lows are no longer intact. It looks as though we will be closing below 1400 satoshis tonight, unless we catch a ~10% bounce. As with Stratis, I’d be exiting my position on a close at these levels.


Ubiq:

UBQ/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6505 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.551mn (2,771 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq looks to me as though it is forming a spring, which may mean capitulation on high volume in the short-term. It has shown unusually high volume of late, which has also been trending upwards, indicating that there is accumulation underway at recent prices. The October lows have been broken, but I will be looking to buy blood over the next couple of days.


SALT:

SALT/BTC

Price: $0.34 (6519 satoshis)

Market Cap: $27.725mn (5,374 BTC)

Thoughts: Salt is super interesting, as we did see an insane amount of volume recently with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows forming. Market structure was undoubtedly bullish, but we have seen a near-three-week downtrend on very low volume, and a subsequent return to the original accumulation range. September lows remain intact, and this sell-off seems very much panic-driven rather than the exit of those that bought significant positions only a month ago.


Ark:

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.40 (7861 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.012mn (8,370 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is unusual in its sell-off, as it is one of few coins that is experiencing a lot of volume on the dump. The August low has just about been swept, and a close here would indicate further capitulation incoming. The drop might get more extreme before Ark finds a new local bottom and forms a new range.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.45 (28234 satoshis)

Market Cap: $145.418mn (28,234 BTC)

Thoughts: The price-action of Waves is incredibly resilient given that of Bitcoin this past week. Price remains within a bullish orderblock with the August low still a good 10% away. There has been a near-month-long downtrend, with price retracing very slowly and on little-to-no volume. Holding onto Waves seems wise.


BlockNet:

BLOCK/BTC

Price: $2.87 (55815 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.619mn (3,034 BTC)

Thoughts: BlockNet found its range resistance at a level of prior support, and has been range-bound for almost 3 months. Despite unusually high trading volume today on its dump, September’s low remains unbreached. It would be bullish to see price remain above this low despite such a high-volume dump… monitoring it closely.


Siacoin:

SC/BTC

Price: $0.004 (72 satoshis)

Market Cap: $140.384mn (27,257 BTC)

Thoughts: Siacoin seems to be gunning for that August low despite not quite breaking through it yet. Volume has been steady on the downtrend, picking up a little over the last couple of days. Range support has given way, and I’d be very cautious in buying the blood here. Waiting on true capitulation.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.78 (15062 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.86mn (16,676 BTC)

Thoughts: The Komodo chart is a beauty, with near-perfect symmetry between its key levels. Range resistance was briefly breached but proved to be a false breakout, with price retracing all the way back to the range pivot around 18k satoshis. It has since close below this level and dumped down to range support. September’s low remains intact, but it is hanging on by a thread. The next few days should show whether Komodo will hold its local lows or if we’re in for a whole new range.


ALQO:

ALQO/BTC

Price: $0.17 (3349 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.899mn (1,923 BTC)

Thoughts: ALQO has been in an uptrend for the past 3 straight months, but has recently run into old support turned resistance. It’s a bad time to run into resistance, and some weakness is showing as price failed to make a higher-high. It has since retraced to the trendline support and prior resistance (hopefully) turned support. Closing the Daily below 3000 satoshis would be a clear indication that this current uptrend is over and that we may be moving back towards the lower-2k range. I’d be buying more below 2500 satoshis to add to the masternode/staking portfolio.


FoldingCoin:

FLDC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (36 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.29mn (251 BTC)

Thoughts: FoldingCoin was looking perfect, with its tight price range and spike in volume, followed by a breakout from the range. Price has since bled back to the range and below, recently closing the daily below range support. For those who don’t use a fixed-risk approach for lowcaps, this would be a good area to cut your losses and wait for a new range to form before re-entering.


Musicoin:

MUSIC/BTC

Price: $0.002 (39 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.372mn (461 BTC)

Thoughts: Musicoin showed a lot of promise last month in its price-action and its volume spikes, but has since dumped below support around 50 satoshis – a level that is now resistance. Short-term support does seem to have been found at 37 satoshis, with price (just about) closing above the two-week trendline yesterday. A retrace of this recent move and a Daily close below 37 satoshis would make a wise exit-point for those not using fixed-risk, as new lows would be imminent. However, if this not-so-clean breakout can be sustained, with price perhaps forming a new range with 37 satoshis as support, then adding to the position would make sense.

That concludes the 12th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found some value in it. Stay alive, people.


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Market Outlook #4

Market Outlook #4 (30th September 2018)

Man, this past week seems to have flown by. That said, it seems to have been a week of less interesting price-action than I had anticipated; most altcoins are range-bound at the moment, but Ethereum most certainly is not. In this week’s Market Outlook, I will run through some updates on Bitcoin, Monero, and, of course, Ethereum, given the immaculate bullish market structure forming on its chart. Further, I’ll be looking at Ardor and how its price-action has progressed since its appearance in my first Market Outlook, as well as a mid-cap altcoin that has recently come onto my radar because of the extremely high reward-to-risk opportunity presented by it: Bulwark.

Anyway, let’s crack on.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6590

Market Cap: $114.142bn

Thoughts: Little has ocurred since last week’s Market Outlook, and Bitcoin’s price-action remains choppy but ultimately bullish. Last week closed strong, and price has since formed a short-term ‘double top’ around $6850. Of course, double tops are often just a tool for engineering liquidity, but given that the ~$6800 zone has been so significant recently (switching between support and resistance numerous times over previous months), I think one must exercise caution in any assumption that it will be taken out. I maintain my belief that the worst is over, but with long-term trendline resistance approaching very soon, we’ll find out if I’m right or wrong. However, looking at the 4H, it seems to me that we’ll see a move above $6850 over the next few days; hopefully accompanied by heavy volume.


Monero:

XMR/USD

Price: $115.28 (0.01752 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.896bn (288,229 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero is moving slower than I expected, and another week goes by without a re-test of ~$150 resistance. This is to be expected, however, when Bitcoin’s price-action is taken into consideration. Local stops have been swept, and an ascending triangle has definitely formed. I would like to see a Daily close above $125 on good volume to confirm bullish continuation.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $232.78 (0.03538 BTC)

Market Cap: $23.808bn (3,618,822 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum is currently the coin that I’m paying most attention to, simply because there is a lot going on. A glance at the 4H for ETH/USD shows continual formation of bullish market structure, with consecutive high-volume trendline breakouts and the prior resistance ~$210-220 holding as local support. ETH/BTC is even more bullish, with a very strong breakout occuring recently on high volume, and price forming a perfect bull-flag on the 2H. 0.04 BTC looks to be the next resistance.


Ardor:

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.12 (1860 satoshis)

Market Cap: $123.022mn (18,572 BTC)

Thoughts: Since the first Market Outlook, I have filled my position in Ardor, and recent price-action suggests that I was correct in buying ~1500 satoshis. There are very clearly delineated levels of prior support and resistance to map out potential future price-action; in particular, I am looking at ~3000 satoshis as the next major resistance. However, volume remains low (though increasing), and I’d like to see a breakout above 2100 satoshis sustained with greater volume. This would be the first major indication that a longer-term reversal has occured.


Bulwark:

BWK/BTC

Price: $0.79 (11969 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.556mn (1,439 BTC)

Thoughts: Bulwark recently came onto my radar thanks to price-action being rangebound between 9k-18k satoshis for over half a year. That is a very long time for price to remain within a range, especially considering the past 210 days have been a period of ceaseless bleeding of the vast majority of altcoins. Not Bulwark, though. Accumulation of a position around 12k satoshis offers a potential 27:1 reward-to-risk ratio, with an exit of the position occuring if price closed the Daily below 8k satoshis (10% below the low of the range). That’s about as sexy as it gets. Oh wait, no, it gets better: Bulwark also offers ~90% annual returns for masternode holders.

I hope you’ve found this post useful. I’m looking forward to this coming week…

If you have any questions or thoughts, feel free to leave them in the Comments section.


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Market Outlook #1

It’s been two months since my last long-form post, and I recently had the idea to create a new page for the website titled Market Outlook. Here, I will post detailed weekly market updates, including Bitcoin and altcoin charts and other thoughts on current sentiment, and the page will operate separately to the main blog. The latter will continue to be updated, although perhaps more sporadically, and will feature a mix of short and long-form posts on recent interviews and podcast appearances; methods of analysis; altcoin research; case-studies like that of the Blackcoin rich-list; AMAs; and other miscellaneous posts that I think will be either entertaining or insightful.

Market Outlook, however, will be a weekly post, every Sunday, that primarily provides chart updates on altcoins I’m currently in or that I’m considering more carefully. This will also be the exclusive place to find my updated charts (aside from the odd one I throw up on Twitter now and then); for those of you that are members of the Telegram channel in which I post a stream of my charts, I will be migrating all future posting to this website. It just makes more sense for me to have everything in one place. Plus, the reason I created the Telegram in the first place was to give myself access to a consistent stream of my own charts, so this is just a better way for me to do that. For the 6,000 of you in there, you’ll still be able to follow the progression of those ideas, if you find them valuable; it’ll just be here rather than there.

Now, on with the show.


Market Outlook #1 (9th September 2018)

So, for this first Market Outlook post, there’s five coins in particular I’m paying attention to. And, uncommonly, all five are high-caps. We’ll begin with BTC, of course, and then I’ll be running through Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and Ardor; four coins I have bought positions in recently.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6390

Market Cap: $110.78bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin is in a very precarious position at the moment. Price is hovering above the long-term support that has been formed around $6000, with numerous double-tops and double-bottoms visible on the daily chart, prime for sweeping. It really could go either way from this point, though I am bullish until we see a weekly close below $5800. I find it quite interesting that the majority of the price-action is taking place within the weekly bullish orderblock. Regardless, we should get our answer as to the direction of the next few months of price-action within a fortnight. Cross your fingers for a breakout to the upside and a weekly close above $7500.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $106.94 (0.0167 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.75bn (274,374 BTC)

Thoughts: I really like the Monero chart (both, USD and BTC). Price seems to have broken out from long-term downtrends across-the-board, and it has held up well given the recent Bitcoin dump. I’d like to see $100 hold and some volume come into play for the next attempt at breaking through that heavy resistance around $140-150. I bought heavily between $85-95. What I don’t want to see is a daily close below $80/0.013 BTC.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $206.35 (0.0323 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.02bn (3,289,652 BTC)

Thoughts: The panic is real regarding ETH, especially amongst crypto-Twitter. That’s usually the perfect signal to begin scaling into longer-term positions. And, having cross-compared the ETH charts, what do you know? Price just so happens to be at long-term support for both, USD and BTC. Also, ETH/BTC is approaching the daily bullish orderblock, from which price previously exploded 422%. Corresponding volume has been relatively significant, though I’d imagine we’ll see a little more blood and volume before a genuine bottom is found. However, I’m scaling into an investment-esque position below $200. What I don’t want to see is a weekly close below 0.022 BTC.


Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.48 (0.00023102 BTC)

Market Cap: $146.96mn (22,873 BTC)

Thoughts: The fact that STRAT has declined 95% from its ATH in BTC, and has recently broken out of its near-nine-month downtrend, is a good sign, in my opinion, that a bottom has been found. A short-term accumulation range also seems to be forming between 20-25k satoshis. However, when cross-compared with STRAT/USD, price seems to have rejected off of prior support now turned resistance, and may be seeking new lows. I have started buying at around 23k satoshis, and will exit my position if we get a daily close below 18k satoshis. Ideally, the market will see some more volume come in at these prices, and the resistance at $2.20 will be reclaimed.


Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.097 (0.00001518 BTC)

Market Cap: $96.88mn (15,160 BTC)

Thoughts: Ardor is rather interesting to me, as it recently experienced ~5% of its circulating supply traded within one day – roughly $9.6mn-worth at the average price during that day. That’s a lot of ARDR and a lot of interest. Price has since experienced a low-volume sell-off, down to the long-term accumulation range. This is a buy signal if ever there was one, and I am buying below 1600 satoshis.

And thus concludes our first Market Outlook.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.