Following on from the previous two instalments of this rich-list case study, in this final post of the series, I will be looking at what conclusions can be drawn from not only the prior two weeks of activity but the study as a whole. It has now been a little over 5 weeks since the first instalment was published and so we will have enough data to make some confident assertions as to the speculative nature of Stratis, at present.
Again, for those that are unfamiliar with this series, I refer you to the first post, as this one will assume that you are aware of the approach.
Beginning as usual, let’s take a look at the current overview of the top 20 addresses:
If you compare this screenshot to that of the top 20 from two weeks ago, a number of differences should become apparent:
- Firstly, the top address (owned by Binance) has grown by ~600k STRAT, indicating that more users are storing their STRAT on the exchange.
- Secondly, the ownership of the top 20, as a group, has grown by 1.5% to 39.29%.
- There are a few new addresses in the top 20.
- Many addresses have remained static in their balances.
Now, one thing I’d like to highlight is that, exactly as in the previous post, there are 5 inactive addresses. As such, there are 14 individual addresses of significance to us, excluding the top Binance address (as this is an exchange staking address).
Following this, we just follow the approach: note down the current date, address rank, the address balance on the date of the previous screenshot, the current address balance and, finally, the net change in balance across the period for each of these 14 addresses. For those addresses that have been replaced by a new address within the top 20, start a new record.
The final results should appear like so:
- #1: N/A (Binance staking address)
- #2. -86,489 STRAT
- #3. Unchanged
- #4. +2,156,912 STRAT (new address)
- #5. +767,851 STRAT (was previously #8)
- #6. N/A (only staking across period – was previously #4)
- #7. N/A (only staking across period)
- #8. N/A (inactive address – was previously #9)
- #9. N/A (only staking across period – was previously #10)
- #10. N/A (inactive address – was previously #11)
- #11. N/A (only staking across period – was previously #12)
- #12. N/A (inactive address – was previously #13)
- #13. N/A (only staking across period – was previously #14)
- #14. +769,860 STRAT (new address)
- #15. -20,001 STRAT
- #16. N/A (inactive address)
- #17. Unchanged
- #18. N/A (inactive address)
- #19. N/A (only staking across period)
- #20. +7,555 STRAT
As was the case with the previous instalment, our initial expectations were not met, as there are far fewer active addresses once staking-only addresses have been accounted for. In fact, only 6 addresses in the top 20 had any transactions since the previous screenshot.
Most importantly, we can see that, of the 6 active addresses, 4 experienced net inflows and 2 experienced net inflows; however, upon closer inspection, 1 of the 4 that experienced inflows simply replaced the 14th-richest address, indicating a likely private transfer of holdings rather than accumulation. This is in contrast, for example, to #4, which actually saw multiple inflows over the period. As such, address #14 is discounted from our evaluation.
Thus, the total change in balance of the top 20 addresses since 25th November was +2,825,825 STRAT, equating to 2.8% of the circulating supply.
To conclude this final instalment of the rich-list case study on Stratis, I’d like to highlight my conclusions drawn from all previous findings:
- Each instalment has seen net inflows into the top 20 addresses, accounting for all staking and possible private transfers.
- Most of the top 20 has been inactive throughout the period.
- The number of distributing addresses decreased by 1 from the previous instalment.
- Overall, the trend among active addresses has been bullish whilst price has remained range-bound throughout the period.
- The net inflow into the top 20 since the study began is +6,882,772 STRAT, equating to a little under 7% of the circulating supply.
- I would, based on all of the data from the past ~6 weeks, comfortably buy STRAT inside the range highlighted in the chart below.
I hope the final instalment of this rich-list case study series has been a valuable read.
As I mentioned above, it appears that so-called smart-money are either actively accumulating or holding onto their balances in this range, with virtually no distribution present. As such, I feel confident in my Stratis position, which has been bought inside this range. I will be looking to hold for the majority of the next cycle.
More importantly, I hope that this entire series has provided clarity on an uncertain topic. The upside available in employing this approach is not present in any other market; the transparency of the blockchain is unique. Utilise it.
As ever, if you have any comments or questions, feel free to leave them below.