An Altcoin Trader's Handbook – Page 2 of 24 – Cryptocurrency Trading Blog

Market Outlook #34 (Altcoin Special)

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Market Outlook #34 (7th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to part two of this week’s Market Outlook. For those who missed the first part, which dealt exclusively with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Dash in extensive detail, you can find it here.

In this post, however, I will be covering Stratis, Komodo, Ark and Ardor. These are four of the larger mid-to-largecap altcoins I’m invested in, and I think they largely reflect the nature of most of the altcoin market at present.

Strangely, whilst most of the market is at ALT/BTC lows, I do not think the bloodshed is quite over yet, as my expectations for an imminent short-term top in Bitcoin give me reason to believe we’ll see more blood when BTC retraces. Altcoins will have their time to shine, but it’ll take either a period of consolidation or a slow and steady rise in Bitcoin (above the $6k resistance) before that occurs. Volatility and uncertainty in Bitcoin is generally not so good for alts…

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $0.82 (13787 satoshis)

Market Cap: $81.175mn (13,693 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis has a lot going for it fundamentally (as do the rest of the four coins featured in this post) but its chart now looks horrific. Just two weeks ago, it was one of the stronger looking charts…

Now, let us take a look at the Weekly chart for STRAT/USD for some context:

Trendline resistance that was in play for a year was broken going into 2019 and price successfully retested it in January. As such, there is a strong possibility that the cyclical low was formed at $0.53 last year. Since then price has found resistance at an historical level of support, $1.34.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see the breakout from trendline resistance occurred on high volume and that mid-term support has formed around $0.73. However, STRAT’s climb above the 200-day moving average was shortlived and price now sits in a precarious position with at least 30% of room to fall before it reaches the low from December 2018. If Bitcoin does retrace towards the low $4k area, STRAT/USD would undoubtedly be dragged down towards this potential support level.

STRAT/BTC looked rather comfortable above 21k satoshis in April, but, looking at its Weekly chart, we can see that it now looks a little grim:

18-month trendline resistance was broken in December, and price found resistance at support turned resistance around 40k satoshis. Following this, it retraced towards 21k satoshis where it sat, presumably in re-accumulation, for a couple of months. However, late April brought with it a breakdown from this support level and price has continued to fall, breaking and closing the Weekly below the November low of 15k satoshis. It seems to me to be painting something of a spring as it seeks to test the trendline resistance as support once more, though this time around 12k satoshis.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see where price lost the 200-day moving average followed by a fall through the significant 0.0002 BTC level. The subsequent sell-off has been steep but very low in volume, indicating that a move into historical resistance at 12k satoshis from 2017 will likely be a good place to buy. However, low-risk buyers would wait for a rejection and break of the bearish market structure before an entry. I have depicted the path I expect Stratis to take on its Weekly chart, though I expect movements to be more explosive than shown if late Q2/early Q3 is when alts get some relief.

Komodo:

KMD/USD

KMD/BTC

Price: $1.10 (18567 satoshis)

Market Cap: $124.511mn (21,000 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo looks relatively strong compared to other alts, though it suffered from a great deal of downside of late too. Looking at KMD/USD on the Weekly timeframe, it is evident that price is lingering around serious resistance but remains above its 20-week moving average. Again, given the significant relationship between Bitcoin’s price at ALT/USD prices, I expect KMD/USD to be dragged back towards trendline support (and perhaps briefly under it) as Bitcoin finds a short-term top.

Now, let’s take a look at the Weekly chart for KMD/BTC:

10-month trendline resistance was broken and retested prior to 2019, after which price rose steadily, respecting its trendline support. It found resistance at prior support around 28k satoshis, retracing hard towards the trendline, which then gave way. What has followed is a move back into what is clearly an area of historical accumulation for all of Komodo’s bull cycles.

From the Daily chart, we can see that price is lingering within this range, above support at 17500 satoshis, but if Bitcoin sneezes I expect this level to give way and KMD to move towards 15700 satoshis. I do, however, expect the November low at 13400 satoshis to remain intact as a cyclical low. A move above 21500 satoshis would confirm the reversal.

Ark:

ARK/USD

ARK/BTC

Price: $0.49 (8191 satoshis)

Market Cap: $54.54mn (9,178 BTC)

Thoughts: Ark is another coin that looked very strong against Bitcoin in Q1 but has suffered a deep retracement towards November lows.

The Weekly chart for ARK/USD depicts the breakout above support turned resistance at $0.50 and the 20-week moving average in Q1, following which price found resistance at $0.90. It has since fallen towards trendline support and the 20-week moving average has been lost. Further, it is sitting at the reclaimed level of support at $0.50.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see price flirting with trendline support, but also that the 200-day moving average has also been lost. Multiple Daily closes below support indicate that there is further downside to be had, and a close below $0.45 would open up a move towards $0.36.

But what about ARK/BTC? Well, as can be seen in the Weekly chart, price is sitting just above the first ever Weekly orderblock, which preceded the 2017 bull cycle. This is likely a great area for low-risk, high-reward accumulation, and the successive bearish Weekly candles suggest to me that we will see the local low at 7300 satoshis taken out before price rejects, acting as a spring for a new cycle to begin.

I have depicted this on the Daily chart, where we can also see the series of significant levels of support that have been lost recently. A move back above 9500 satoshis would indicate that a bottom has been found, but I expect we shall see price wick below 7k before that happens.

Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.07 (1176 satoshis)

Market Cap: $69.6mn (11,753 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally, we have Ardor. One particularly interesting feature of Ardor’s price-history can be found on the Weekly chart for ARDR/USD, where I have depicted a very similar fractal that seems to be playing out from late 2016/early 2017. Further, the 5-month trendline support is being respected by the Weekly candles, but its fortunes are largely tied to the movement of Bitcoin. We can clearly see numerous levels of support becoming resistance, with the most recent resistance found at $0.09.

Looking now at the Daily chart, we can see that there is actually a little room to fall before Ardor tests its trendline support against the Dollar. Further, it also just about holding onto its 200-day moving average and holding above resistance turned support at $0.067. However, again, unless Ardor massively outperforms Bitcoin, a retracement in BTC/USD will certainly bring ARDR/USD below these areas of support, perhaps towards $0.50.

The ARDR/BTC chart, however, is a work of art, as price has moved back into the original accumulation zone from 2016. I have painted a price trajectory on the Weekly chart. It is, however, paramount that Ardor holds above 900 satoshis, which is its all-time low. A move below that would open up bearish price discovery. Whilst Ardor holds within this range, it is likely a rewarding opportunity to accumulate.

Finally, looking at the Daily chart, I have shown where Ardor broke its uptrend against Bitcoin and lost its 200-day moving average. The subsequent dump has been extensive, bringing price all the way back to the November low above 1100 satoshis. The recent rejection of a move below this does suggest that a double bottom may be forming, but I expect this low will be swept in a similar spring-like fashion to that which we are seeing across-the-board in alts.

And that concludes this lengthy second part to this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below.

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Market Outlook #33

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Market Outlook #33 (5th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 33rd Market Outlook. It’s been a couple of weeks since my last post and it seems I have missed a great deal. As such, this week’s post will be longer than usual, and will be split into two parts; one of which will be published later this week and will exclusively cover smaller altcoins.

In this post, I’ll be covering everything I have yet to update for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, plus I’ll take a look at Dash.

Before I begin, I’d also like to quickly mention that I will be transforming the current weekly email that goes out on Mondays in its entirety. It is, at present, just a RSS feed of recent blog posts, which is rather limited in its usefulness. Instead, I’ll be combining a round-up of the past week’s blog posts with brief thoughts, updates, short-term trade ideas and more. I’ve not really decided on the format of this yet, but just know that it’ll be changing moving forward.

Anyways, let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $5782

Market Cap: $102.245bn

Thoughts: So, as you may have already noticed, there is a lot to work through here, and I’ve provided 5 charts to supplement a top-down analysis of Bitcoin. In the previous Market Outlook, I mentioned that I thought price would make a move for $5750, coming into an area of significant resistance, prior to any rejection. This did indeed occur over the past couple of weeks, and now I am awaiting a breakdown, as I still expect a retest of the 200-day moving average before we start breaking up above $6500.

Looking at the first Weekly chart provided, we can see the full price-history of the previous two cycles, beginning in 2014. What is uncanny is the familiarity with which price is moving, relative to the previous bear market of 2015. Looking specifically at the summer of 2015, we can clearly see a breakout above the 20-week moving average when it and the 200-week moving average tightened, which led to a break above trendline resistance and a subsequent rally into historical support turned resistance. Sound familiar? Look now at the past few months of price-action and we see the same pattern emerging. In 2015, however, this breakout rally was followed by a rejection and retracement back below both moving averages briefly, before price bottomed out and begun the new bull market.

I have applied a projection of the same fractal to current price-action for some clarity. A similar (though likely not exact) rejection would send price back below $4000 to retest the 200MA, followed by a swift rejection and a strong move above $6000 in August/September of this year. This has been my expectation for a while now, as often outlined on Twitter; that Q3 will be the beginning of the new bull market for Bitcoin.

Now, looking at the Daily charts for Bitcoin, I have provided a line chart of the same period of price-history as the Weekly to point out another interesting pattern: the interaction of the 200-day and 360-day moving averages.

Back in early 2014, Bitcoin bounced off the 360MA before it gave way in July/August, leading to a crossing of the 360MA above the 200MA for the first time since the previous bull market began. What followed was months of blood, culminating in a bottom being found in 2015. Remember the breakout rally of 2015 I mentioned earlier? It was capped by the 360-day moving average, which led to the rejection and subsequent bottom forming. Now, in late 2015, Bitcoin rallied hard and began its new bull market, and shortly afterwards the 360MA crossed below the 200MA for the first time since the bear market began. Their paths did not converge again until the summer of 2018, and we all know what followed. And once again, the recent breakout rally has sent price up into the grasp of the 360MA, where it now sits, consolidating…

I expect we shall see another crossing of these two significant moving averages before the new bull market begins, and I expect it to occur in late Q3.

Now, looking at the second Daily chart printed above, we can see bearish divergence in the RSI as price comes into significant overhead resistance. The 4H chart depicts the path I expect price to take moving forward; one more leg up before a breakdown.

Further, it is clear to see that early shorts have been getting murdered during this recent rally whilst longs have been left untouched. Best believe there’s no free lunches in this game.

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $163.32 (0.02825 BTC)

Market Cap: $17.301bn (2,993,348 BTC)

Thoughts: Unlike my expectations for Bitcoin, my expectations for altcoins over the past couple of weeks were flat-out wrong, Ethereum included. My time away seemed to spark an abrupt sell-off in alts, with ETH/BTC leading the charge as it tanked below range support at 0.0315 BTC.

Let us first examine ETH/USD, however. Looking at the Weekly chart, one thing to note is that each successive higher-low over the past few months has occurred on declining volume; perhaps indicating an exhaustion of buyers as price lingers around overhead resistance – watch out below, trendline buyers.

The Daily chart depicts the 200MA supporting price, for now, but much of the bullish market structure that was working in Ethereum’s favour is now lost, as we see a series of lower-highs and lower-lows forming at present. Further, if Bitcoin retraces back towards its original breakout level at $4200, then Ethereum is going to be dragged down with it, perhaps even more aggressively if ETH/BTC takes a further tumble too.

There are two areas of interest in this scenario: the first is below $123, where there is an untouched level of support; the second is $100. I suspect we shall see both of these levels ran through before we find that cyclical double-bottom form. I doubt we will see $80 again, as there is very little significant support below it until around $50, but everything above it is likely fair game.

Now, looking at the Weekly chart for ETH/BTC, there is quite an interesting price-action fractal playing out, wherein a swing-high is followed by a lower-high, a subsequent bearish break of market structure and a move into a Weekly orderblock. If this pattern is anything to go by, we want to be buyers of the second wick into the orderblock, not the first, likely around 0.0265 BTC, as depicted in the Daily chart.

Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $67.15 (0.01161 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.138bn (197,069 BTC)

Thoughts: Ah Monero; a range long held but now almost lost. There is a potential spring forming below range support, but I exited my trading position at 0.012 BTC and so am only currently holding cold-storage Monero. What I would like to see before re-entry is what I have depicted on the XMR/BTC chart, if this is to be the spring. I would rebuy on a reclamation of 0.0125 BTC. However, if Daily candles start to close below range support at 0.0116 BTC, we will likely see 0.011 BTC tested and a new range begin to form with 0.0116 becoming resistance.

Dash:

DASH/USD

DASH/BTC

Price: $119.23 (0.02064 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.048bn (181,410 BTC)

Thoughts: So, in the previous Market Outlook, I mentioned that Dash was in a low-risk, high-reward position; sadly, the 9R trade with a very tight stop at 0.022 BTC was crushed as the altcoin market fell apart whilst I was away.

Oddly, Dash is in a similar position now, sitting on strong support at 0.0205 BTC, and I initially took a similar trade but have exited based on recent analysis. Looking at DASH/USD, we can see similar untouched support levels to that of ETH/USD, and I have depicted the path I expect Dash to take moving forward. A sweep underneath trendline support would flush out buyers before a new bull market begins.

Looking now at the Weekly chart for DASH/BTC, it is hard not to be bearish, as price failed to regain the lost long-term trendline support-turned=resistance at 0.026 BTC. This coincided with a level of historical horizontal resistance. Looking at the Daily chart, it seems price will be making a trip towards 0.019 BTC soon. Again, I expect the December low 0f 0.0176 BTC to hold but there is likely 6-8% further downside to be expected of DASH/BTC.

Now, saying that, I point readers to a few charts I posted on Twitter recently, that lead me to believe Dash will outperform other largecaps when the bull market begins.

And that concludes this very long Market Outlook. I’ll see you tomorrow for some equally lengthy analysis of smaller altcoins.

Market Outlook #32

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Market Outlook #32 (21st April 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 32nd Market Outlook. In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Dash.

This will be the last blog post for the next 10 days, as I’ll be away on holiday from tomorrow – a long overdue one, at that.

Anyway, let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $5320

Market Cap: $93.939bn

Thoughts: As anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, Bitcoin found a local bottom around $4900 and made an attempt at breaking through the local high at ~$5450. Price has faltered a little here, as would be expected given the short-term resistance, but it does look to me as though we will make a move towards $5750 soon before we see any significant rejection. Following this, I expect price to return to retest the 200-day moving average, and perhaps even the range resistance at ~$4350; the perfect buying opportunity, as one cycle ends and another begins…

Things rarely play out that smoothly, of course, but that is the general course I expect price to take over the coming weeks.

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $170.82 (0.03223 BTC)

Market Cap: $18.052bn (3,408,885 BTC)

Thoughts: There is rather a lot more going on with Ethereum, at present, and it continues to look bullish mid-term. Looking at ETH/USD on the Daily timeframe, we can see that price is lingering above the reclaimed support at $166, having found new resistance at $189. Volume has been declining throughout April, indicating an imminent, significant move. Looking at the 4H chart, we can see that the lows at $160 were swept this past week, following which price bounced hard, turning market structure bullish with a close above $170. I expect we’ll see the weekly low formed early this coming week, with bullish momentum continuing into next weekend.

Now, looking at ETH/BTC, we can clearly see that price is range-bound between significant support at 0.0306 BTC and resistance at 0.0353 BTC. April has seen declining volume, and I expect we’ll see a bullish breakout above range resistance in May. The hourly chart shows us that price has returned to the bottom of this recent range; providing a low-risk entry for those looking to get long.

Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $68.12 (0.012868 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.153bn (217,897 BTC)

Thoughts: After the false breakout at the beginning of the month, Monero has returned to its range-bound price-action, though support remains firm at 0.0125 BTC. The 200-day moving average continues to cap price, and volume remains strong. One day…

Dash:

DASH/BTC

Price: $121.15 (0.02287 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.061bn (200,429 BTC)

Thoughts: In Market Outlook #27, I gave my trade setup and price trajectory for Dash, and it played out rather perfectly. Now, we find Dash sitting at 10-week trendline support, the 200-day moving average and inside the consolidation range that preceded the previous leg up. There is clearly a low-risk buying opportunity here if we are to expect further bullish movements in Dash, and the most risk-averse trade setup would be to buy here with a stop-loss on a Daily close below 0.02 BTC and a target of 0.029 BTC, giving around 2.5 reward-to-risk. For those who are comfortable with more risk, a much tighter stop can be set on a Daily close below 0.022 BTC and the same target, giving almost 9 reward-to-risk.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read, and I’ll see you all in May for the next post.

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