Market Outlook #94 (28th September 2020)
Hello, and welcome to the free edition of the 94th Market Outlook.
In these free versions of the Outlook, I provide my analysis on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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Market Cap: $201.57bn
Thoughts: As mentioned in last week’s Market Outlook, the short-term view on Bitcoin is bearish, in my opinion, although the picture is a little prettier than a couple of weeks ago. If anything, BTC is giving mixed signals.
If we begin by looking at the weekly chart, the dump back below $10,600 looks somewhat like a breakout > retest of the trendline resistance as support from the all-time high, with the subsequent price-action looking like that support is holding and price is printing a swing-low at $9,790. Moreover, price has now spent two successive weeks back above the $10,600 area, which has been my primary focus level for the best part of 2020. The bearishness of that breakdown candle into $9,790 does seem less scary for short-term bulls given the subsequent price-action, but the lack of volume on the push back up is a little concerning.
If we turn to the daily, the picture is not quite back to being short-term bullish, either, as we have a series of lower-lows and lower-highs from the 2020 high at $12,511, with the most recent high at $11,100 currently capping price. That said, on last week’s push lower, price failed to make a new low below $9,790, despite the allure of a 200dMA retest, a 360dMA retest and all the liquidity below the flat lows around $8,860 right below. Price has since pushed up back towards $11,000 but volume is still very low. What I would like to see to turn bullish again short-term is for price to make a higher-high above $11,100 on the daily and break above the trendline resistance on higher volume than currently being traded. This would turn market structure bullish again and I’d be looking to get long a retest of $11,100 for a run back towards the 2020 high. However, it is very possible that we see a sweep of $11,100 lead to another breakdown and push lower, which, if it occurs, would open up a move into $8,860.
Price: $364.22 (0.0335 BTC)
Market Cap: $41.165bn (3,778,555 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum looks a little better than it has recently but the most recent price-action makes me a little apprehensive to be long here.
More specifically, if we look at ETH/USD, last week printed a near-equal double bottom, which is something I do not like to see if we are to expect higher prices short-term. If we look at the weekly, a flush of that $309 low would actually be ideal as a place to look for longs, as price would come into the 200wMA and the prior resistance at $290. Turning to the daily, we can more clearly see the double bottom above $309. Price is also still struggling at the $364 pivot area; if we see price falter here, intraweek shorts into that sub-$308 area make sense to me, with longs more favourable once we come into $290.
Turning to ETH/BTC, there isn’t much to add here beyond last week’s thoughts, but I do like that price failed to close at new lows, instead sweeping 0.0311 before closing back above the range low. If we turn to the daily, we can see that price has just crawled back above the key support at 0.0327; however, there is a clear downtrend from the 2020 high. Until we see the pair print a higher-low followed by a higher-high, I am expecting primarily sideways action from the pair, with a move down into 0.0286 the more likely scenario in October, in my opinion.
And that concludes this week’s free Market Outlook.
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