Market Outlook #9 (4th November 2018)
Today’s Market Outlook sees us return to some short-term analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, followed by a couple of opportunities I’ve spotted in Vertcoin and Shield. In last week’s Market Outlook, I omitted analysis of ‘the usual three’ in place of a handful of altcoins, as market conditions were unusually stable. I can’t say things have gotten much more exciting since, but there are a few points-of-interest to discuss. The exciting price-and-volume-action seems to be occuring more frequently amongst lowcaps and midcaps at present, and, as such, I believe there is a lot to look forward to this winter in that sector of the market. Vertcoin and Shield are just two of the plethora of opportunities I’m seeing on a daily basis.
Anyway, on with the show:
Market Cap: $111.288bn
Thoughts: Bitcoin’s breakout from the long-term trendline resistance has been followed by a low-volume pullback and trendline retest. This is textbook. In doing so, it has receded into the 4H bullish orderblock that led to the initial breakout, and has since formed short-term trendline resistance which it is battling with at present. A break and close on the 4H above $6500 would shift short-term market structure to bullish from its present bearish state.
Price: $106.57 (0.0167 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.763bn (276,924 BTC)
Thoughts: XMR/USD, as anticipated in Market Outlook #6, has formed a new range with resistance at prior support of $111. Following Bitcoin, it has since moved back into the 4H orderblock and bounced on gradually increasing volume. At present, we are still very much seeing chop, and the $111 level would need to be reclaimed in order for things to begin looking bullish again. Switching to XMR/BTC, the most important level (0.016 BTC) continues to hold strong, with a new range having formed with it as support and 0.017 BTC as range resistance. As long as that original breakout level holds, market structure is bullish.
Price: $200.73 (0.0315 BTC)
Market Cap: $20.673bn (3,246,326 BTC)
Thoughts: Lots of clean market structure on ETH/USD. Liquidity has been cleared below and above short-term swing-lows and highs, respectively, and price is currently grappling with a significant level of resistance turned support and once again turned resistance at ~$203. All of this also just happens to be occuring inside a 4H bullish orderblock. ETH/BTC is even more interesting, despite what seems on the surface to be a boring chart. All I needed to highlight here was the longest and tightest range of price-action in recent history. ETH/BTC has been stuck between 0.0306 BTC and 0.032 BTC for over 3 weeks; a range of around 4.5%. Extended periods of low volatility are most often followed by extreme volatility…
Price: $0.66 (10454 satoshis)
Market Cap: $31.097mn (4,883 BTC)
Thoughts: Vertcoin is among the oldest cryptocurrencies to exist. As I discuss in my book, it was the first coin I ever invested my own money into back in February 2014. It has since experienced numerous market cycles, and I believe we are on the cusp of a new one. Price has dropped off from its winter 2017 highs back to the low of August 2017. A tight range has formed, now lasting 12 straight weeks. Volume is low, but the duration of the range does somewhat make up for this (micro-buying over an extended period of time is one form of accumulation that differs from the high-volume, single-day accumulation seen in other alts recently, like SALT). I doubt there’s been a better reward-to-risk opportunity to buy Vertcoin in a very long time.
Price: $0.005 (88 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.863mn (450 BTC)
Thoughts: The parallels between the Vertcoin chart and this Shield chart are overt, as are the parallels in much of the altcoin market at the moment. Shield is a lower-midcap privacy coin that I wrote about in my book; more specifically, I talked about how I liked its consistency in meeting development deadlines and the specificity of its roadmap. It was, however, too expensive at the time to buy. Shield has fallen around 96% from its January highs, back to levels only traded during the initial months post-launch. It has formed a very tight range lasting almost 2 months despite its low liquidity, and is currently trading abbove its 6-month trendline resistance. As I say, Shield has very low liquidity, and this is likely due to its largest exchange listing being CoinExchange, but I think micro-buying at these levels is a good approach for anyone wanting to enter a position for the next bull cycle; a cycle that presents a near-30x opportunity in BTC.
That concludes the ninth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. As ever, feel free to leave any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.
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