Market Outlook #82 (24th June 2020)
Hello, and welcome to the 8th instalment of my premium Market Outlook and the 82nd overall.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, ZCash, Waves, Holo, Genesis Vision, Ren, COTI, V-ID and adBank.
As ever, if you have any suggestions for next week’s post, feel free to leave them in the comments below.
There’s plenty to cover, so grab a coffee and settle in:
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $9650
Market Cap: $177.88bn
Thoughts: Bitcoin remains in the eternal range between $8,000 and $10,500, despite recent whispers of PayPal integration.
Beginning with the weekly chart, we can see that price is now beginning to print somewhat of an ascending triangle into resistance above $10,000, on continually declining volume. Nothing much has changed for me in my outlook, given that price remains nestled in this range. Looking at this, I still think we pop $10,600 first, before anything else major occurs. If we reject up there and start to close back below $10k, I’d see it as a liquidity sweep to fill short orders for significant downside (perhaps to retest the yearly open at ~$7160). If we close above it and thereby close above that all-important trendline resistance also (on good volume, might I add), I think we will begin the bull run that everyone is waiting for, with that $14k high as the first target. Moreover, inside week failure printed on Sunday night, giving further validation to the idea that the liquidity at the top end of the range will be swept. The invalidation for a sweep of $10,600 is more visible on the daily, so let’s move on to that timeframe.
Turning to the daily, here we can see the range between $8100 and $10.6k more clearly, with price clearly being supported by the 360-day moving average as the swing-lows from each week are brought higher. We can also see that last week’s inside week failure has been followed by a reclamation of $9580 as of yesterday, with price now pressing up against short-term trendline resistance. Given the inside week failure and the subsequent reaction, I think we see a breakout above this trendline today or tomorrow followed by a move back towards $10,100 later in the week. Looking at this timeframe, the invalidation for me is if we see a daily close below the 360dMA, which has been supporting price throughout this consolidation. If we break and close below the MA on solid volume, I’d expect to see a retest of $8k at the least.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $244.25 (0.0253 BTC)
Market Cap: $27.226bn (2,821,548 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum is once again looking ready to lead Bitcoin higher, as ETH/BTC pushes up from local support.
Looking at ETH/USD on the weekly to begin with, we remain firmly below the 200-week moving average and trendline resistance, but we can see that price has flipped the prior high at $228 as support, albeit on declining volume. I am still waiting for a close above $253 to start looking at intraday longs all the way up to $290 and probably higher.
Turning to the daily for the Dollar pair, there is a clear short-term range that formed between $228 and $253, with a sweep of the range low last week into $217 providing the impetus for the recent bounce back above short-term trendline support towards the top-end of the range. Although it would be stupid to enter any longs here, given how close we are to a confluence of resistance levels, I do not think $253 will hold firm given another test and I have marked out a trajectory showing where I would like to get long (a breakout > retest of $253).
Now, looking at ETH/BTC, we remain firmly above weekly trendline resistance, having seemingly reclaimed the top end of the pivot zone at 0.0245 as support. This should form a base for a move above 0.0261, with a weekly close and breakout of the declining period of volume likely to lead to 0.0286. Turning to the daily chart, we can we a very traditional bull flag formation at resistance. Now, as you probably know, I tend to be a little bit suspect of traditional patterns, as we often see a false breakout or sweep before the real move occurs; as such, I would not be surprised to see 0.024 swept before a breakout to the upside. That said, given the current macro sentiment that is growing into fervour around DeFi, perhaps any notion of short-term price-action should be thrown out of the window. If we do see a weekly close above 0.0261, I think the growth of the DeFi narrative will likely drive Ethereum above 0.042 over the coming months.
ZCash:
ZEC/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ZEC/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $59.14 (0.00613 BTC)
Market Cap: $558.61mn (57,865 BTC)
Thoughts: ZCash has had a history of disappointment for holders, many of whom have held through one of the worst bear markets for any major altcoin. Why? Because they don’t consider emission, which, for ZCash, has historically been very high. That said, there is a chance the tide is turning.
Looking at ZEC/USD, we can see that price is pressing up against trendline resistance, like many other majors, having swept the 2019 low at $24.40 during the mid-March capitulation of this year, hitting a new all-time low below $21. Price has recently reclaimed support at $45.20, as well as the 360dMA, which is now acting as support. Moreover, trendline support from March 2020 is now converging with trendline resistance from June 2019, with a breakout to the upside looking likely. If we see a close above $57, I’d expect to see $77 retested.
Turning to ZEC/BTC, price has been capped by trendline resistance since February 2018, with price now pressing up against both that resistance and more recent trendline resistance from earlier this year. Volume is declining but price has held firmly above prior resistance at 0.0047. The 200dMA and 360dMA have also converged, with price above the latter for the first time in years. As we have seen with other altcoins recently, this has often been the catalyst for a decent rally. If we see price pop above both trendlines and close on good volume, I’d expect to see a retest of 0.0079; above that, I think ZCash would likely go parabolic.
Waves:
WAVES/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
WAVES/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $1.24 (12,828 satoshis)
Market Cap: $126.657mn (13,121 BTC)
Thoughts: Waves is at historical lows but appears to be printing a similarly bullish formation to a number of alts at present.
Looking at WAVES/USD, we can see that price has broken above trendline resistance from the 2018 all-time high and that volume here, though declining, is much higher than volume in previous cycles. Trendline support has been in play since November 2019 and I am expecting price to keep moving higher towards $1.79, retesting the level as resistance. This is a seriously important level, as it was early resistance in 2016 that then supported price in 2017, then turning to resistance again earlier this year. If $1.80 is reclaimed, price will very likely move much higher. On the daily, price has also reclaimed the 200dMA and 360dMA, which are now converging.
Turning to WAVES/BTC, price is well below the cyclical support at 19k satoshis that preceded the previous two cycles, with the level acting as resistance earlier this year, after price formed its all-time low at 7300 satoshis late in 2019. Price has since been printing higher-lows as it has moved closer towards that cyclical support level, again reclaiming the 360dMA very recently. I am a buyer here, looking for 19k satoshis at the very least, followed by a retest of 25k satoshis.
Holo:
HOT/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
HOT/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.00059 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $97.75mn (10,127 BTC)
Thoughts: Holo is one of the low-satoshi coins that hasn’t really moved all that much just yet, despite its peers having moved significantly off the lows.
From HOT/USD, we can see that price recently broke above trendline resistance from the all-time high at $0.0025 and now appears to be retesting it as support. though prior support turned resistance at $0.00065 is capping price at present. The 200-day moving average is also acting as support, and I am expecting a breakout above $0.00065 shortly. A move above that level would provide a good entry for low-risk buyers, with the next significant resistance at $0.001, although price will have to reclaim the 360dMA to get there.
It isn’t the Dollar pair I am focused on, however, as HOT/BTC is where the opportunity lies, in my opinion. Price fell below the prior cyclical support and all-time low at 6 satoshis in March this year, hitting a new all-time low at 4 satoshis. Price has since rallied off that low but remains at cyclical support, capped by the 200dMA. A breakout above the 200dMA would be the first since May 2019. I am a buyer here, looking for at least 11 satoshis, though likely higher. My stop is the all-time low; if we close below that, I’m out.
Genesis Vision:
GVT/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
GVT/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $1.36 (14,110 satoshis)
Market Cap: $6.03mn (624.6 BTC)
Thoughts: Genesis Vision has been around for some time but has spent the vast majority of that time in a bear market.
Looking at GVT/USD, the mid-March capitulation sent price to a new all-time low of $0.39, though the base at $0.88 was reclaimed swiftly. Price has since been rallying towards prior support turned resistance at $1.65, which was the low that preceded the 2018 bull cycle. I expect a breakout above this level would lead to a new bull cycle beginning for GVT, with subsequent resistance at $2.75. There isn’t a great deal of volume here, however, so I would wait for a high-volume breakout before buying any new positions.
The BTC pair is much more attractive for a potential new position, with the all-time low at 7.7k satoshis having formed last month. Price has since bounced 100%, reclaiming the range support that was in play for over 9 months. Moreover, price is now above the 360dMA, with resistance now above at 18k satoshis. I am expecting a retest of range resistance, which, if followed by a breakout on good volume, would indicate the beginning of a new cycle for me.
Ren:
REN/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
REN/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.16 (1667 satoshis)
Market Cap: $138.05mn (14,435 BTC)
Thoughts: Ren has recently pushed to new all-time highs, which I why I would urge caution.
As regular readers of the blog will know, I do not like buying anywhere near an all-time high, and Ren has recently popped the all-time high on both its pairs. For holders, this is fantastic, as it will likely bring in a fresh new round of volume and higher prices, but for those on the sidelines it is very likely better to stay on the sidelines. There are plenty of other opportunities in the market at present.
Looking at REN/USD, we can see that price popped the previous all-time high at $0.148, which itself was fractionally higher than the previous cycle high at $0.14. We haven’t yet seen the weekly close above either of these levels, which would be the impetus likely needed for higher prices. If we see rejection up here and close below $0.148, this would likely lead to lower prices and perhaps even the end of the cycle, as occurred the previous two times. The daily is very bullish, however, with a clean breakout on high volume above that prior high, with trendline support now in the distance as the rally grows steeper. If we see some consolidation above that previous high and the weekly closes above it, I would expect to see another leg of the rally shortly after. If price begins to falter here and moves back below $0.148, I’d expect to see trendline support retested.
Turning to REN/BTC, price recently swept the previous all-time high at 1685 satoshis, and I have marked out the trajectory I am expecting as long as this weekly closes above 1400 satoshis. It is very likely we see a short period of consolidation above 1400 satoshis before we see any higher prices. I have also marked out the previous cyclical top formation on the daily so that holders are aware of what to look for when a cycle is ending. That isn’t to say that this cycle has ended, as we remain firmly above old highs and trading good volume, with a steepening rally.
COTI:
COTI/USD
Daily:
COTI/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.027 (285 satoshis)
Market Cap: $14.155mn (1,467 BTC)
Thoughts: COTI is a sleeping giant, in my opinion, with a roadmap for the rest of this year full of releases that the current market conditions are perfect for.
Looking at COTI/USD, we can see that the all-time high formed shortly after initial trading at $0.127. Following this, price spent months in a downtrend, hitting an all-time low at $0.0062 in November 2019. Price then rallied hard for several months, ultimately hitting resistance at $0.037, which became a double-top, earlier this year, with March capitulation sending prices back to retest range resistance at $0.012 as support. Price has since recovered significantly and is now back above the 360dMA. I am expecting a retest of $0.038 shortly; any break above that double top would likely lead to a retest of $0.056, above which I think we go for all-time highs later this year.
Turning to COTI/BTC, price spent 117 days in accumulation between the all-time low at 80 satoshis and resistance at 157 satoshis between October 2019 and February 2020, before COTI broke out and rallied for a few weeks until resistance was found at 450 satoshis; just shy of prior support at 490 satoshis. Price has since fallen off and formed a new range with the 200dMA acting as support and 310 satoshis as resistance. A breakout above 310 satoshis will lead to a new rally in my opinion, with 500 satoshis the first target. I will, however, be looking for much higher prices later this year.
V-ID:
VIDT/USD
Daily:
VIDT/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.169 (1753 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.995mn (828 BTC)
Thoughts: V-ID is another sleeping giant, with a revenue-producing business tied directly to the usage of the token.
Looking at VIDT/USD, we can see the convergence of trendline support from the March all-time low at $0.044 and trendline resistance from the all-time high at $0.55. Price has recently reclaimed resistance at $0.135, along with the 360dMA, but until we are above that trendline resistance I won’t be certain of a more sustained rally towards the high at $0.27.
Turning to VIDT/BTC, there is a very classical altcoin bottoming pattern at play, with 240-day accumulation range that began in November 2019. Range support is at 810 satoshis and resistance at 1545 satoshis, with a test pump having occurred earlier this year before price returned into the range. Price has since broke back out of the range and volume is gradually rising. I am expecting a move above 1900 satoshis to lead to a retest of 2750 satoshis as resistance. I am personally holding for new all-time highs, as I believe the project is severely undervalued at present.
adBank:
ADB/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.001 (11 satoshis)
Market Cap: $768,895 (79.6 BTC)
Thoughts: Adbank is the first true microcap (by my definition, sub-250 BTC market cap) that I have bought in over a year, with market conditions beginning to look primed for fundamentally-sound projects that have never experienced a proper bull cycle.
Adbank has a working ad product with a growing user-base, an active team and an advisory board that includes the Creative Director for VaynerMedia (Gary Vaynerchuk’s ad agency), the founder of PIVX and the CEO of Polymath. Looking at its chart, it has been in accumulation for 300 days between 3 satoshis and 11 satoshis and price has been capped by its 360dMA for its entire history. Moreover, none of the top 25 addresses have distributed anything during recent months, instead either flat or actively adding to balances. Volume is beginning to pick up as price has recently broken above that 360dMA and, on the weekly chart, I have marked out the trajectory I am expecting once price closes above 11 satoshis on that timeframe. I see no reason why in these market conditions a project with a working ad product, a growing user-base, a prominent advisory board and promising rich-list activity shouldn’t be valued at $5m+ (over 8x from here).
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found some value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
