Market Outlook #8 (28th October 2018)
Well, it seems the big three that I would usually cover in these posts took the week off. Bitcoin has had one of its least volatile weeks in recent history, and Monero and Ethereum followed suit. So, to prevent today’s Market Outlook from being an utter waste of time, I have decided to make this one an Altcoin Special. I’ll be covering 4 altcoins, from lowcaps to largecaps, all of which seem to me to present huge upside opportunity at current prices. I’ll begin with Stratis, before covering Ubiq and Synereo, and finally a special treat that came onto my radar this week: Musicoin. In last week’s Market Outlook, I talked about the massive opportunity presented by FoldingCoin, and I think Musicoin might actually be an even better buy. But we’ll get onto that later…
Price: $1.64 (25318 satoshis)
Market Cap: $162mn (25,082 BTC)
Thoughts: Stratis announced this past week that the project is now a Silver Partner of Microsoft. This, naturally, led to a huge buy-up, in which 5% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours on Binance alone (~$8mn). Now, this only served to reinforce my thoughts on Stratis, and I have been buying since I first wrote about the coin in Market Outlook #1, almost two months ago. Since then, price has remained within its tight range against USD and BTC, and a near-3-month accumulation range is undoubtedly in play. I believe this past week’s buy-up was merely a precursor to an imminent reversal; a reversal that would be confirmed if price can close above the major support turned resistance around $3 (which is still almost 100% away, currently). There’s a long way to go, for sure, but the signals keep appearing.
Price: $0.53 (8188 satoshis)
Market Cap: $22.542mn (3,489 BTC)
Thoughts: Ubiq had a very strange moment in its price-history back in April, when 12% of its supply was bought up, but macro sentiment and the pervading bear market seemed to win the fight, and price followed the rest of the market in an extended sell-off. However, even the swiftest of glances at the volume profile on the chart can tell us that there has been almost zero volume on the decline of the past few months, and capitulation seems to have occured on the one steep day of decline towards the end of August.
Since that point, price has consolidated above the 15-month trendline resistance, finding support – strangely enough – at the opening price of Ubiq’s listing on Bittrex. Funny how these things work out, isn’t it? Small volume spikes are beginning to appear within this range, and I believe buys here will be rewarded before the end of the year.
Price: $0.046 (718 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.65mn (723 BTC)
Thoughts: Synereo is in a very interesting position at the moment. AMP/BTC has seen three consecutive market cycles with lower and lower peaks, forming a trendline resistance that spans two years. Price is also trading a little above its all-time low, and the endpoint of the trendline resistance has arrived. Poloniex delisting AMP sent it down below a short-term level of support, but, in the past week, a sign of renewed interest appeared: 9% of the circulating supply was traded last week (around $420k). That’s a lot of money to throw at a lower-midcap at such a pivotal point in its price-history.
A quick look at AMP/USD also indicates that prices are back within their long-term accumulation range; prices that have been rewarded without fail since Synereo’s inception. Reward-to-risk here is huge, as one could quite easily have a soft stop at a daily close below 500 satoshis (~30%), or you could use a fixed-risk approach like I tend to for lowcaps and midcaps. Comparing the two charts, peaks in AMP/USD have gotten progressively higher whilst the inverse has occured against BTC. I would imagine that, whenever the next cycle occurs, this may rebalance.
Price: $0.004 (57 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.159mn (646 BTC)
Thoughts: Finally we come to what I feel is the highest reward-to-risk opportunity I’ve seen in a while; or at least one of a handful. There is very little I need to paint on the chart except that over a third of the supply was traded in the past two weeks, with 20% being traded a few days ago. This amounts to around $1.7mn of MUSIC that exchanged hands recently. Couple this with the fact that price is trading ~10% above its all-time low, and has been holding that level for 10 weeks now, and you have a strong case for buying.
There is one weakness that I must point out, however, and that is the constant supply emission. Roughly 1.6mn MUSIC come into existence daily, or ~580mn a year. This equals to an annual inflation rate of a little over 50%. Now, this is by no means a deal-breaker, especially given the upside potential, but it’s something to consider. At current prices, daily supply emission is 0.91 BTC or a little under $6,000. To put this in perspective, MUSIC has traded an average of $80,782 daily for the past month. Its average daily volume covers its average daily supply emission by over 1300%.
I hope this eighth Market Outlook has been informative. I rather enjoyed not analysing BTC, ETH and XMR for once. Feel free to post any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.
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