Market Outlook #64 (9th December 2019)

Hello, hello and welcome to final Market Outlook of this year and this decade.

As such, I’ll be covering more altcoins than usual, looking at Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus THETA, Komodo, NKN and Credits. Fret not, however, as this won’t be the final blog post of the decade, as I do have another Coin Report coming and the third instalment of the Stratis rich-list case study series. After that, I’ll be taking a long holiday until the New Year…

Regarding recent price-action, there has been quite a lot of chop over the past week and, despite the volatility in Bitcoin, altcoins are generally holding up pretty well, with many making further advances. I’ll refrain from any further preamble and crack on with the analyses:

Bitcoin:

Price: $7,318

Market Cap: $133.548bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that Bitcoin was in a very precarious position, nestled between trendline resistance from October and the 360-day moving average, the significance of which I also outlined in that post (in short, it has acted as a market cycle pivot over the past 7 years). Following the publication of that post, price rocketed up above trendline resistance up towards horizontal resistance at $7,870 but was rejected, with price closing the Daily back below the trendline. This was rather bearish, but the following day put in a Daily close just above the trendline; not confidence-inducing and suggestive of market indecision. All of the subsequent price-action has occurred above trendline resistance and the 360-day moving average but the range is contracting and squeezing and it appears we are on the brink of a major move.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that there have been a couple of rejections of the overhead resistance ~$7,800, with price now looking at retesting the 360-day moving average. The levels I am now looking at are $7,050 to the downside and $7,870 to the upside. Until one of those gives way, I am not confident in any particular direction; however, I would like to add that a Daily close below the 360MA would likely take price below that $7,050 support, effectively ending the bull cycle as measured by that particular moving average. It is about to get very interesting…

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $148.18 (0.02 BTC)

Market Cap: $16.13bn (2,181,516 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum hasn’t really moved at all over the past week, with both pairs lingering around important levels. For ETH/USD, market structure remains bearish with support turned resistance at $150 capping price. The next area of support is $130. I expect that Ethereum is awaiting Bitcoin’s next major move before picking a direction, as ETH/BTC also appears in consolidation above important 0.019 support. If price is able to start breaking higher, we may also see a reversal of market structure on its Dollar pair, but until BTC/USD picks its direction, we can’t possibly know for sure. I am staying on the sidelines until clearer trading environments present themselves for leveraged plays.

Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $53.81 (0.0727 BTC)

Market Cap: $933.475mn (126,220 BTC)

Thoughts: Not much to comment here on Monero, as it continues to ride the 0.074 pivot area on its BTC pair, meaning that XMR/USD is effectively mimicking BTC/USD at present. The situation remains bearish until proven otherwise.

THETA:

THETA/BTC

Price: $0.083 (1,130 satoshis)

Market Cap: $72.774mn (9,840 BTC)

Thoughts: Unlike those unclear trading environments in the largest coins, midcaps and lowcaps are appearing much more attractive than they have since December 2017, with many crawling out of multi-month consolidation ranges and beginning ascents. As for THETA, it remains range-bound between the all-time lows at 900 satoshis and resistance below 1350 satoshis, with much of the price-action capped by support turned resistance from May at 1150 satoshis. I am awaiting a breakout above the trendline resistance from August on solid volume, following which I will look to buy a retest and ride it up to at least the 360-data moving average; a close above which I would consider the beginning of a new cycle rather than just a period of relief.

Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.64 (8,607 satoshis)

Market Cap: $74.657mn (10,095 BTC)

Thoughts: Komodo has fallen to the area of support I marked out a couple of weeks ago, although there is still a little room to fall towards prior resistance at 8,000 satoshis. Market structure turned clearly bullish following the strong rally throughout November and I am firmly convinced that dips are for buying. The 360-day moving average has been capping price since Q1 2018 and so I will look towards this for further confirmation that a new cycle has begun for Komodo. Volume has also been declining on this recent dip, as one would expect from a pullback in a bullish environment.

NKN:

NKN/BTC

Price: $0.021 (287 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.91mn (1,341 BTC)

Thoughts: NKN looks ripe at the moment, having never really had much of a sustained bull cycle in its history. Following its Binance listing, it popped and has now consolidated between 250-360 satoshis for several weeks. I am expecting a break above range resistance, followed by a move up to the local high at 580 satoshis. What happens beyond this is impossible to predict, but, given the fundamentals and current market structure, it appears a solid bet for sustained growth going into the New Year.

Credits:

CS/BTC

Price: $0.071 (983 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.79mn (1,865 BTC)

Thoughts: Credits has been on my radar for some time and is now even more interesting to me, as it presses up against its 360MA and remains range-bound between resistance at 1,400 satoshis and support at 700 satoshis (a wide range, I am aware). Volume within this range has been historically significant, with huge buying interesting around the 1,000-satoshi area. I am buying in this range with a view to hold cyclically, expecting price to reach prior support at 2,100 satoshis at least.

And that concludes this final Market Outlook of 2019. I hope you have enjoyed reading them over the past year and I will have plenty more for you in 2020.

As ever, please feel free to leave any comments or questions below.