Market Outlook #61 (17th November 2019)
Hello, hello and welcome to the 61st Market Outlook.
This week’s post will be a little briefer than usual, as there has been little movement over the past week and prices continue to creep gradually towards expected areas, particularly Bitcoin. As such, I’ll only be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero today. That said, I will have an altcoin-specific Market Outlook for you sometime next week.
Market Cap: $155.116bn
Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that there was a strong possibility that we would see $8,400 shortly, given that this was the area that was broken above to turn Daily market structure bullish in October. Revisiting this area as potential new support seemed likely and that is precisely what we are seeing at the moment.
Looking at the Daily chart printed above, we can see that price continued to fall gradually and on relatively flat volume, as is textbook in a low-volume pullback to an area of support. Now that we’ve hit $8,400, I expect we may see a sweep of this week’s low ($8,350) before price starts to move higher; I’m eyeing up $8,060 as the next key level, beyond which I doubt we see price fall.
Though I am now expecting a bottom to form, I do not think we will see immediate upside and a new range forming; instead, as I’ve mentioned in recent posts, I think we will have a period of chop within this larger range from $8,000 to $11,000 until at least the Christmas period. If anything, I expect we may retest the significant resistance sitting at $11,000 sometime in December (as marked out crudely on the chart) but I think it will require the influx of volume following the Christmas period to actually break above those highs.
If price does start to fall below $8,000 and close Daily candles below this support area, I would worry about the above thesis; given the violence of the move in October, it would show serious weakness if the $8,000 area was not defended.
Price: $185.18 (0.02155 BTC)
Market Cap: $20.108bn (2,340,208 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum continues to move at a snail’s pace, mimicking Bitcoin in many respects. In particular, looking at ETH/BTC, we can see a near-perfect inverse image of recent price-action in Bitcoin; a gradual climb back towards the highs set in October. Volume remains flat and I remain in expectation of a retest of 0.023 this month. What will be interesting to witness is whether ETH/BTC is able to continue its climb if and when Bitcoin finds and prints its local bottom…
Looking at ETH/USD, there really isn’t much to say: price remains compressed in a tight range between the 360-day moving average and $200 resistance. I am expecting a breakout to the upside shortly, after which I will look at potential long position entries.
Price: $62.62 (0.00728 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.083bn (126,144 BTC)
Thoughts: XMR/USD got smacked down again by trendline resistance and the 360-day moving average, with recent action making it look incredibly weak. Until the pair is able to close on good volume above $65, I remain uninterested. I think, given this past week’s rejections, we may go down to retest $58 this coming week…
Looking at XMR/BTC, a similar story is playing out, with the all-important 0.0074 resistance proving difficult for price to remain above. Despite this, the pair does look a little bit better than Monero’s dollar pair, but I remain unconvinced of any bullish reversal at the moment.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. I’ll publish my altcoin-specific post sometime next week with some possible longer-term setups looking viable. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to leave them below!