Market Outlook #60 (10th November 2019)
Hello, hello and welcome to this week’s Market Outlook.
It’s been more of the same this past week, I’m afraid, with the markets remaining largely in consolidation, although there has been some mild continuation of expected trajectories, both Bitcoin and the altcoin market. As such, this week’s post builds on the ideas put forth in the previous; there is little new to mention.
I’ll be taking a look at the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus providing an update on EOS and discussing the current range-bound environment in Cardano.
Market Cap: $160.061bn
Thoughts: As anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, Bitcoin dropped off a little this week, though still trading higher than the $8400 I am expecting before we find a local bottom.
Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that little has really changed since the prior week, with market structure remaining bullish whilst price remains above $8367; the level that preceded the raid below $7400 in October. As such, I am expecting a retest of this level followed by a prolonged period of range-bound chop between that area and the resistance at $11,000. Ultimately, by year-end, I am expecting the $11,000 area to give way. Until then, however, I am not expecting all that much of significance.
Price: $187.13 (0.02115 BTC)
Market Cap: $20.367bn (2,295,510 BTC)
Thoughts: Much like Bitcoin, ETH/USD remains in consolidation, although price has been supported by ETH/BTC’s gradual climb over the past week.
Looking at ETH/USD, we can see that resistance at $200 remains very much intact and price continues to bounce between it and the 360-day moving average, which is currently holding as support. I am patiently awaiting a Daily close above $200 before I start looking for longs, and I fully expect this to be caused by movements in ETH/BTC over the coming weeks.
As such, let’s take a look at the latter pair: here, it appears price is following the trajectory I set out a few weeks ago, where 0.0188 was retested as support and price has since bounced and climbed back to 0.0212. There is some risk that resistance could be found here, printing a classical head-and-shoulders pattern, but I am more convinced that price will continue on to print a higher-high above 0.023 this month, dragging ETH/USD up along with it. As I mentioned in last week’s post, whilst price remains above that 0.0188 support, I am bullish.
Price: $63.72 (0.00717 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.102bn (124,166 BTC)
Thoughts: Monero, as can be observed on the XMR/USD chart above, made another (albeit weak) attempt at breaking above the 360-day moving average that is currently capping price but, suppressed by the drop in BTC/USD, it failed yet again. Further, trendline resistance continues to push against price, but we are nearing decision time; either XMR/USD breaks above this key resistance on the next test or I expect we’ll see $55 retested. I do believe, as with Ethereum, the imminent movements will be largely influenced by XMR/BTC rather than BTC/USD.
Looking at the BTC pair, we can see a similar gradual climb to that of ETH/BTC, with Monero pressing up against key resistance at 0.074, the rejection of which drove price to new lows last month. As such, it is vital that Monero print a higher-timeframe close above this level, opening up the likelihood for a sustained reversal. Until it does so, I remain uninterested.
Price: $3.55 (40,040 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.339bn (376,195 BTC)
Thoughts: In Market Outlook #57, I discussed the critical area EOS was trading at against the Dollar and the expectations I had for its Bitcoin pair. As expected, we have seen EOS crack above the trendline resistance that had capped the pair since June, with price now trading close to horizontal resistance at $3.78, printing higher-highs and higher-lows on its way up.
More importantly, EOS/BTC has followed almost precisely the trajectory first mentioned in that earlier post and has since climbed back towards the September high of 41,500 satoshis, which I expect it to break above this coming week. Following this, I think we see a move to 47,000 satoshis; the support turned resistance from July. It is at this point that we will know whether a more sustained reversal will follow, which will act as a proxy for the altcoin market: significant, sustained rejection at 47,000 satoshis will likely spell doom for altcoins en masse; a higher-timeframe close above will be magnificent.
Price: $0.043 (487 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.12bn (126,247 BTC)
Thoughts: If there has ever been a time to buy Cardano, I expect it is now. Never in the project’s history has it traded in such a contracted range for such a duration at such significant historical prices. For 95 days, ADA has been range-bound between 400-540 satoshis, trading significantly below its 360-day moving average. Further, ADA/USD has recently broken above trendline resistance from June, much like other large-cap alts and is pressed right up against its 360MA. For those with lower appetites for risk, await a break above both the range resistance at 540 satoshis and the 360MA for ADA/USD and buy the retest…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found some value in the read. As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below!