Market Outlook #6 (14th October 2018)
On today’s Market Outlook, I cover the usual three along with two very promising high-caps: Ark and SALT. But first, let’s just make a note of how wrong I was in last week’s Market Outlook. Actually, I was right; we finally got some dynamic movement… it just happened to be in the wrong direction. Just when you think all is running smoothly, the cryptosphere forces you to re-evaluate. It wasn’t all bad though, as we’ll discuss; and past experience leads me to believe this is a final bit of false fuckery before those levels are reclaimed. But, all in all, we are in far more of a precarious position now – across-the-board – than when I was sat writing Market Outlook #5.
Market Cap: $109.990bn
Thoughts: Now, if you remember from last week’s chart, price was consolidating within a lower time-frame triangle, and I was anticipating a trendline breakout to the outside. We instead got a breakout to the downside, but on no significant volume and the trough of the sell-off held above the short-term trendline support. Bitcoin is giving us mixed signals, in short. I’ve mapped out the various double and triple bottoms and tops, to point to where the liquidity is, and thus where price may be looking to move. If price can refrain from closing the daily below $6100 (where that recent double-bottom lies), I would expect an upwards breakout from this longer-term triangle and a reclamation of $6700. Ideally, in fact, we’d want to see that double-bottom wicked below and rejected to provide fuel for the move up. However, we are lingering dangerously close to the mid-term liquidity at ~$5750, and if last week’s momentum can carry price to a daily close below $6100, I would imagine we see further breakdown from there fairly quickly. Don’t make me look a fool, Bitcoin; I still feel it in my bones that $5750 was the bottom.
Price: $102.70 (0.0163 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.693bn (269,153 BTC)
Thoughts: Monero seems to be painting two different pictures depending on whether one is looking at XMR/USD or XMR/BTC. The USD chart has broken the short-term uptrend on mid volume, with the consolidation range now expected to become a level of resistance ~$112. That being said, stops have clearly been swept below recent swing-lows, but the initial breakout level has held firm. Two possible trajectories from here are: either, a retest of the $112 level from which price broke down; or, a couple of days of consolidation in this ~$103 zone before another leg down to test the $90 swing-low. However, when we look at the XMR/BTC chart, we see much more to be positive about. The range between 0.016 BTC and 0.019 BTC has held despite the breakdown, price is still above the 6-month downtrend and the volume on the dump was minimal. That 0.016 BTC level is critical, regardless; if that gives way, I would expect another 10-15% dump to test the lows at ~0.0135 BTC.
Price: $200.64 (0.032 BTC)
Market Cap: $20.578bn (3,284,677 BTC)
Thoughts: ETH/USD is very interesting: price remains above a 9-month downtrend, has formed a range between $180-250, and experienced a sell-off of near-equal volume to that of the initial breakout. Despite the high-volume sell-off, the range was held and the $165 low remains intact. Given the volume on the dump, I would have expected a deeper drop. That being said, it definitely doesn’t look pretty on the daily. Switch over to ETH/BTC (and I have illustrated a 4H chart because there is a lot going on), and we can see the 4H breaker remains strong. The swing-low at 0.031 BTC was swept but the breaker held, and now price has reversed. 0.03 BTC is now the most significant short-term level for Ethereum. I am leaning towards it holding, as the volume on the preceding swing-low (0.0313 BTC) was higher than the volume that led to the ultimate low, indicating a shortage of sellers. However, where there were previously few levels of resistance in Ethereum’s way for short-term upside movement, there are now many. Plus, concerning volume; the short-term reversal since that low has been on decreasing volume. Shaky ground.
Price: $0.56 (8953 satoshis)
Market Cap: $41.163mn (6,543 BTC)
Thoughts: Let’s venture into brighter territory. SALT piqued my interest because over 18% of its circulating supply was traded in 24 hours a short while ago; its highest single-day volume (on Binance) of all-time. Not only that, but with the volume came a breakout above an 8-week, tight accumulation range. Price has since dipped back towards the range, and I am certainly buying. Major resistance is at 30000 satoshis.
Price: $0.72 (11359 satoshis)
Market Cap: $75.577mn (12,006 BTC)
Thoughts: Similarly to SALT, Ark has formed a tight accumulation range, with most trading activity occuring between 10-12k satoshis. Range resistance is at 14.5k satoshis, and range support at 8k satoshis. Volume is slowly rising, and upside potential is huge. All we need to see is a SALT-esque breakout on volume to confirm the beginnings of a new bull cycle.
That concludes Market Outlook #6. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Feel free to leave any questions or feedback in the Comments section!
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