Market Outlook #59 (3rd November 2019)
Hello, hello and welcome to this week’s Market Outlook.
There hasn’t been a great deal of movement in the markets this past week, which was somewhat expected given the volatility of the prior weeks. That said, a few altcoins are doing their own thing and a few others are setting up very attractive ranges for longer-term positions; one of these being Vertcoin, which I shall cover in today’s post.
Beyond this, my usual structure will be maintained, featuring analysis of recent price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero.
Market Cap: $164.844bn
Thoughts: As expected in last week’s Market Outlook, Bitcoin spent much of this past week in a lackluster descent, which was highly probable given the volatility of the prior week; consolidation almost guaranteed following extremes in volatility.
Given the level of volatility we experienced that week, I am now thinking that November will be largely a period of consolidation prior to expansion going into year-end. As such, I am expecting price-action to remain range-bound below $11,000 and above $7,250 for the next week or two.
Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see that price printed a bulling engulfing of the prior three weeks, as well as a swing-failure below a key level, which is about as bullish as it gets for me. This week has seen consolidation within the prior week’s range, and I expect another week of similar movement to follow before we see upwards expansion and the unfurling of this bullish pattern of price-action.
Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that price dropped off to the prior resistance of the October range at $8850 and remains bouncing between that level and the low $9000s. Throughout this past week, we have also seen volume steadily decline, which is expected of consolidation periods. I am expecting price to make a sweep of this week’s low next week, possibly to $8300 where the next area of prior resistance lies, with volume remaining low.
Price: $179.97 (0.0197 BTC)
Market Cap: $19.511bn (2,137,280 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum seems a little unsure of itself at the moment, which is not unexpected given the volatility in Bitcoin of late; it almost seems as though it is awaiting Bitcoin’s next move before deciding on a direction.
Looking at the ETH/USD chart, price spent the entire week consolidating below the $200 resistance and above the 360-day moving average, though I expect that this pair will mimic BTC/USD a little while longer whilst ETH/BTC figures out its next move.
Concerning ETH/BTC, we can see that price did very little despite BTC/USD spending the week in consolidation, where you might expect ETH/BTC to have jumped a little higher than it did. That said, it is still following the expected trajectory whilst price remains above 0.0188; as such, this next week should see ETH/BTC trade higher and volume pick up.
Price: $64.18 (0.007 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.109bn (121,528 BTC)
Thoughts: Monero is showing some promise despite breaking to new lows last week, with this week seeing some relief and a move back up towards key levels across its pairs.
Looking at XMR/USD, we can see that price remains below key trendline resistance from July and below the 360-day moving average, but, unlike Ethereum, this past week saw price move back up towards the high printed the week before at $65.70. As I mentioned in last week’s post, however, I am not interested in Monero until both of these key resistances are reclaimed as support.
Looking at XMR/BTC, we can see price moving back up to the level I mentioned last week as my pivot point: 0.0074. If we see a sustained break above this level, then I think we may have found the bottom for Monero and that dump to new lows at 0.006 was likely a spring.
Price: $0.28 (3,056 satoshis)
Market Cap: $14.454mn (1,514 BTC)
Thoughts: Vertcoin looks absolutely beautiful at current levels for a long-term position.
Looking at VTC/USD to begin with, we can see that price has broken above trendline resistance from July but remains below the 360-day moving average. I expect we shall see price retesting this MA and likely closing above it this month. The low at $0.173 was possibly the cyclical low, but until we get prices above the major resistance at $0.59, I would treat this as range-based relief.
Looking at VTC/BTC, however, we can see that price is sat historically-significant levels at ~3,000 satoshis; an area that has formed the base for accumulation prior the last two major bull cycles. The current low of 2,099 satoshis was the all-time low, which appears to have been a spring with price breaking back into the range that began in August. Range resistance is at 3,560 satoshis, above which I would expect we see disbelief begin to unfold. I will be buying on a breakout and retest above this range resistance.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!