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Market Outlook #55 (22nd September 2019)
Hello, hello and welcome to the 55th Market Outlook. It has been a relatively quiet week for Bitcoin, with price remaining firmly within its September range; that said, large-caps continued to show signs of promise, with Ethereum leading the pack and making new highs. As such, this past week has given me a greater degree of confidence in the idea that we will be seeing some further relief for altcoins going into Q4, as, unlike over the past ~18 months, altcoins did not falter at the first areas of resistance.
In this week’s post, I’m only looking at Bitcoin, Ethereum and EOS, as Monero has been very quiet and there is little else I am looking at right now. Next week, however, I expect to have a few setups to provide in some smaller altcoins, so watch this space…
Market Cap: $180.178bn
Thoughts: At the moment, there is little to discuss with Bitcoin, as it remains trapped within the larger consolidation range between $9080 and $11,000. That being said, this past week we did witness something of interest, as price wicked below the local low at $9820 and closed back inside the range, printing a bullish hammer; such a print gave some the idea that we were about to reverse to the other side of the range and take out the highs at $11,000, but the subsequent price-action was muted, negating the hammer. However, I do like that we closed back inside the range, as there is a high probability that tonight we will print inside week failure, indicating upside to follow next week, likely above the $10,500 highs capping price at present.
I have depicted the trajectory I am still expecting price to take over the next few weeks, with the top of the range being taken out at $11,000 before one final collapse to below $9,000 by year-end. Nothing more to add here, for now, except that I will be looking for a short setup above $11,000 if we print a swing-failure there, and I will be looking for longs below $9,000.
Price: $211.77 (0.02109 BTC)
Market Cap: $22.838bn (2,275,064 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum has continued its impressive reversal this past week, reclaiming several levels against the Dollar as support, including trendline support from December, $188 prior resistance and, most importantly, $205. Further, volume also saw a breakout from its decline since July, confirming the buying interest returning to the market.
Looking at ETH/USD, the next area of significance is the support/resistance flip from which price originally broke down at $230; however, prior to this, I would like to get long on a pullback towards trendline support. From there, I expect price to continue its ascent and test $230, which will be the key point at which we will find out whether this reversal has real substance or not. If price can close above $230, I would be convinced that price is beginning a longer-term reversal to take out the $367 yearly highs.
Now, looking at ETH/BTC, we can see similar movements unfolding, with price having rallied hard after reclaiming 0.0175 BTC, as anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook. Moreover, price is now only 15% away from the long-term support turned resistance at 0.0245 BTC; the area that gave way in July. Price has now found a local top at 0.022 BTC and is consolidating beneath resistance, but I am expecting a pullback to the 38.2 Fib retracement and reclaimed support at 0.02 BTC, where I would like to get long.
Price: $3.90 (38,912 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.642bn (362,964 BTC)
Thoughts: EOS did not perform as well as I had expected it to this past week, but there is plenty to remain bullish about here. Against the Dollar, price is currently consolidating below trendline resistance from June and above reclaimed support at $3.77; I would like to see price break above trendline resistance and look to get long on a retest, with the next area of resistance at $4.38.
Looking at EOS/BTC, I have provided an hourly chart as there is more clarity to be gleaned on this timeframe given the past week’s relatively tight consolidation. We can see that price made a new high at 0.00041 BTC early in the week, but rejected here and found support at 0.00038 BTC. We have since seen another leg up, but price remains capped by the weekly highs and has returned to an area of prior support at 0.000387 BTC, where I expect we are forming a bottom with next week’s price-action likely to take price to new highs. This bullish scenario would be negated if price closes the Daily below 0.00038 BTC… let us see what next week brings.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below!
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