Market Outlook #5 (7th October 2018)
The entire market is in what seems to be a coma, though I imagine it will prove to be the calm before the storm. Volatility is at yearly lows across-the-board, and whatever follows is sure to be explosive. In this fifth installment of the Market Outlook series, I will provide some updated thoughts on Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, though there has been very little price-action of note on all three. I will also be taking a look at two coins that I am very interested in for the next three to six months: Geo and BlockNet. Both are altcoins with legitimate use-cases, and, in the case of Geo, an in-real-life user-base of over 5000; a rarity amongst lowcaps. Both present strong opportunities for profit at current prices, given a sufficient time-frame, and I am actively accumulating them.
On with the show:
Bitcoin:
Price: $6570
Market Cap: $113.622bn
Thoughts: Price is fast-approaching the end-point of an ever-tightening range, with a breakout above long-term trendline resistance within spitting distance. The past few days have seen price consolidate around the $6500 area, sitting just below a significant area of support turned resistance ~$6800. I still expect to see a bullish breakout as opposed to a bearish one, and a weekly close above $7500 would potentially confirm a reversal of the previous 10 months of bearish movement. The triangle ends in a week or so, and I’d anticipate dynamic price-action prior to that moment.
Monero:
XMR/USD
XMR/BTC
Price: $113.30 (0.0173 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.865bn (285,702 BTC)
Thoughts: Similarly to Bitcoin, Monero’s recent price-action has been equally lethargic, with short-term ranges being held for both, XMR/USD, and XMR/BTC. Resistance has formed around 0.019 BTC, and a measured continuation of the initial reversal would find XMR/BTC breaking out above this level to tackle resistance at 0.022 BTC over the next two weeks. Things are playing out far slower than one would wish, but periods of protracted volatility only lead to periods of extensive, explosive movement. Stay tuned.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
ETH/BTC
Price: $223.75 (0.034 BTC)
Market Cap: $22.917bn (3,494,437 BTC)
Thoughts: Last week, I primarily posted charts from lower time-frames, as there was much more going on at the micro level; but, given the past week’s inertia, I think zooming out onto the daily reveals a fair bit, especially since the first Market Outlook. This is most true of Ethereum. Following a downtrend that got exponentially more bloody across many months, we saw a sharp bounce and reversal, culminating in a trendline breakout on exceptionally high volume. This reversal has not failed as of yet, and, despite the failure of the bull flag painted on the 4H from last week’s Market Outlook, price has held above short and mid-term breakout levels. The 4H ETH/USD chart also depicts a symmetrical triangle drawing to its close, and I’ve highlighted the area I am expecting to be targeted when the range is broken.
GeoCoin:
GEO/BTC
Price: $0.56 (8510 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.769mn (271 BTC)
Thoughts: We move onto more exciting opportunities following those three slugs… GeoCoin in a very promising position for future profit, especially when you glance at the weekly. Buying at current prices has led to profit every single market cycle for over two years. Repeat that to yourself. You can take a look into fundamentals for yourself, but the project has over 5,000 active users of its primary use-case (a game that involves exploring real-world locations to find GEO). Couple that with the current range being held for over 10 weeks, within a weekly bullish orderblock, and we have a strong opportunity in front of us.
BlockNet:
BLOCK/BTC
Price: $4.39 (0.00067340 BTC)
Market Cap: $23.58mn (3,616 BTC)
Thoughts: The BLOCK weekly chart is one of particular interest, as it just closed its first bullish week in the last 10 weeks. This ocurred at an area of significant prior resistance, which I expect to become a new floor. Volume is still low, especially so considering this is a high-cap (just about), but the daily chart is showing a recent uptick in volume, as well as a breakout from 4-month trendline resistance.
That concludes the fifth Market Outlook instalment. I’ll be sure to answer any questions you have in the Comments section.
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