Market Outlook #4 (30th September 2018)
Man, this past week seems to have flown by. That said, it seems to have been a week of less interesting price-action than I had anticipated; most altcoins are range-bound at the moment, but Ethereum most certainly is not. In this week’s Market Outlook, I will run through some updates on Bitcoin, Monero, and, of course, Ethereum, given the immaculate bullish market structure forming on its chart. Further, I’ll be looking at Ardor and how its price-action has progressed since its appearance in my first Market Outlook, as well as a mid-cap altcoin that has recently come onto my radar because of the extremely high reward-to-risk opportunity presented by it: Bulwark.
Anyway, let’s crack on.
Bitcoin:
Price: $6590
Market Cap: $114.142bn
Thoughts: Little has ocurred since last week’s Market Outlook, and Bitcoin’s price-action remains choppy but ultimately bullish. Last week closed strong, and price has since formed a short-term ‘double top’ around $6850. Of course, double tops are often just a tool for engineering liquidity, but given that the ~$6800 zone has been so significant recently (switching between support and resistance numerous times over previous months), I think one must exercise caution in any assumption that it will be taken out. I maintain my belief that the worst is over, but with long-term trendline resistance approaching very soon, we’ll find out if I’m right or wrong. However, looking at the 4H, it seems to me that we’ll see a move above $6850 over the next few days; hopefully accompanied by heavy volume.
Monero:
XMR/USD
Price: $115.28 (0.01752 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.896bn (288,229 BTC)
Thoughts: Monero is moving slower than I expected, and another week goes by without a re-test of ~$150 resistance. This is to be expected, however, when Bitcoin’s price-action is taken into consideration. Local stops have been swept, and an ascending triangle has definitely formed. I would like to see a Daily close above $125 on good volume to confirm bullish continuation.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
ETH/BTC
Price: $232.78 (0.03538 BTC)
Market Cap: $23.808bn (3,618,822 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum is currently the coin that I’m paying most attention to, simply because there is a lot going on. A glance at the 4H for ETH/USD shows continual formation of bullish market structure, with consecutive high-volume trendline breakouts and the prior resistance ~$210-220 holding as local support. ETH/BTC is even more bullish, with a very strong breakout occuring recently on high volume, and price forming a perfect bull-flag on the 2H. 0.04 BTC looks to be the next resistance.
Ardor:
ARDR/BTC
Price: $0.12 (1860 satoshis)
Market Cap: $123.022mn (18,572 BTC)
Thoughts: Since the first Market Outlook, I have filled my position in Ardor, and recent price-action suggests that I was correct in buying ~1500 satoshis. There are very clearly delineated levels of prior support and resistance to map out potential future price-action; in particular, I am looking at ~3000 satoshis as the next major resistance. However, volume remains low (though increasing), and I’d like to see a breakout above 2100 satoshis sustained with greater volume. This would be the first major indication that a longer-term reversal has occured.
Bulwark:
BWK/BTC
Price: $0.79 (11969 satoshis)
Market Cap: $9.556mn (1,439 BTC)
Thoughts: Bulwark recently came onto my radar thanks to price-action being rangebound between 9k-18k satoshis for over half a year. That is a very long time for price to remain within a range, especially considering the past 210 days have been a period of ceaseless bleeding of the vast majority of altcoins. Not Bulwark, though. Accumulation of a position around 12k satoshis offers a potential 27:1 reward-to-risk ratio, with an exit of the position occuring if price closed the Daily below 8k satoshis (10% below the low of the range). That’s about as sexy as it gets. Oh wait, no, it gets better: Bulwark also offers ~90% annual returns for masternode holders.
I hope you’ve found this post useful. I’m looking forward to this coming week…
If you have any questions or thoughts, feel free to leave them in the Comments section.
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Re Bulwark. What does it actually do? What is its purpose?
It’s a privacy coin, primarily. They’re also building their own hardware wallet. As I state in the book, my aim isn’t to find coins with entirely unique use-cases or anything like that; it’s simply to find high reward-to-risk opportunities in coins that have active communities and developers. Those are far more common.
Ain’t that 90% annual return quite some inflation?
Not really, relative to many alts. 0.25% daily inflation is well below the maximum 2% that I stipulate in the book. Also, if you look at the price-action across the previous 9 months, price has held the range despite 3/4 of its annual inflation coming into existence during that period; this is indicative of high demand.