AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.
Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.
Market Outlook #37 (26th May 2019)
Hello, and welcome to the 37th Market Outlook.
After several dynamic weeks, this past week has been somewhat subdued, with most coins, including Bitcoin, in consolidation. That said, many alts are painting a series of higher-lows and higher-highs after finding local bottoms recently, and that is promising.
In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus taking a look at opportunities in Tron and BitTube.
Market Cap: $141.846bn
Thoughts: So, this week has been rather relaxed relative to the prior few. Rather than the expected bullish continuation above the $8400 ‘double top’, as can be seen in the Daily chart, we got a period of consolidation and a short-term range being formed. However, looking at the Daily, we can still see the intact parabola with old resistance levels becoming new support. Volume has started to decline and next week will certainly bring a breakout to one side or the other. But to which side? Looking at that clear double top at $8400, I would be very surprised if we didn’t move through that to trap shorts before getting any sort of correction…
Looking now at the 1H chart, we can see the range that’s been marked out, with $8400 acting as range resistance and $7600 acting as range support for the past week. Within this larger range, we are also trading inside a short-term range between $7920 and $8110. I am watching for a breakout on significant volume above or below this short-term range to determine whether we will gun for the $8400 ‘double top’ or break down and move back towards $7600 and likely lower. Bias remains bullish until proven otherwise.
Price: $250 (0.03121 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.555bn (3,320,056 BTC)
Thoughts: As expected in last week’s post, we did see a retrace on ETH/BTC towards the reclaimed support at 0.0306 BTC, with price printing somewhat of a bull-flag for those who trade patterns. Looking at the Daily chart, I have depicted the trajectory I expect Ethereum to take over the coming weeks, with a possibility for one last drop down into support at 0.0305 BTC before bullish continuation towards trendline resistance.
From the 4H, we can see the local high printed at 0.0348 BTC and the subsequent move back into support. The 4H is currently rejecting a close below 0.031 BTC, but we need to see a higher-high made above 0.0327 BTC before a bullish continuation is on the cards. Volume has been declining on this pullback, which is positive for bulls. I expect we’ll get that higher-high next week.
Price: $86.41 (0.0108 BTC)
Market Cap: $1.469bn (183,723 BTC)
Thoughts: Monero remains capped by significant support turned resistance at 0.0116 BTC, following a weak breakout above short-term trendline resistance. A bullish reversal will only be confirmed once that support is reclaimed on solid volume, which I believe will occur when Ethereum leads the charge. Beyond that, a reclamation of the 200-day moving average would mark the beginning of a new bull cycle to me, as this has capped price since the beginning of the bear market.
Price: $0.029 (368 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.961bn (245,270 BTC)
Thoughts: Whilst there are many speculators that decline to touch Tron, much like they decline to go near Ripple, I simply look at profitable opportunities, and Tron looks very bullish.
Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see that price is currently trading inside an historical accumulation zone; one that has led to two bull cycles in the past. As such, this is likely a rewarding area for buyers.
Moving onto the Daily chart, price looks to have formed a potential cyclical bottom at 310 satoshis, though is currently capped by trendline resistance and horizontal resistance at 400 satoshis. A Daily close above both of these areas of resistance would be a clear mark of a new cycle beginning, in my opinion, and the next area of interest would be 530 satoshis.
Finally, from the 4H chart, we can see that price has broken out of a bullish pennant on significant volume, making a move towards that level of support turned resistance around 400 satoshis.
All I’m saying is that it looks like a low-risk, high-reward trade to me…
Price: $0.048 (606 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.091mn (887 BTC)
Thoughts: I figured I’d take a look at a smaller coin, given that the past couple of Market Outlook posts have been focused on the larger ones. BitTube is one that looks promising to me at current prices, as, much like Tron, it is in an area of historical accumulation, preceding bull cycles. Further, price has clearly broken above trendline resistance on good volume and is currently retesting it as support. Entries here have between 15-20% of downside risk, with possible upside of 200-300%. It’s a no-brainer, really.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below!
If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.