Market Outlook #3

Market Outlook #3 (23rd September 2018)

Hello, and welcome to the third Market Outlook post. For today’s post, we’ll be looking at Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and ALQO. There has been a lot of significant price-action over the past few days, and the first four coins (all of which have featured in this series of posts previously) look a lot different to how they looked in the first Market Outlook. ALQO is a newcomer, and felt like a must-include because of its recent movements.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the updates:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6681

Market Cap: $115.487bn

Thoughts: Contrary to what many seemed to be expecting, price has held firmly above the swing-low formed last week above $6k. Not only have we seen the local low held, but a new local high has been formed, creating bullish market structure for the short-term. This, coupled with last week’s rejection of a close below that oh-so-vital $6k level, is objectively bullish. We all know Bitcoin likes to set things up and then piss all over expectation; but, sparing perhaps one false wick of fuckery, present price-action is indicative of a bullish move above $7500 and a breakout from the trendline resistance sooner rather than later. In all honesty, I believe the worst is over with regards to price. I’m putting myself out there… if I’m wrong and the past two weeks of price-action has occured to lure me into a false sense of security, then so be it. Onwards and upwards, I say.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $122.19 (0.01828 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.007bn (300,388 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero continues to paint a bullish picture across-the-board. We have, however, moved more slowly from last week than I anticipated, and the re-test of ~$150 resistance hasn’t quite arrived yet. A series of higher lows and higher highs are forming on both BTC and USD charts. Short-term resistance at 0.0162BTC and $105, respectively, has become support, and I would expect to see further upside next week.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $242.60 (0.03629 BTC)

Market Cap: $24.779bn (3,707,430 BTC)

Thoughts: Volume is perhaps the most significant aspect of current ETH analysis. Not only has the previous volume all-time high been equalled for ETH/USD on Bitfinex, but, unlike that first occurence, volume has remained heavy. Plus, this time it preceded a breakout of 9-month trendline resistance. ATH volume + long-term trendline breakout is indicative of a bottom. On the 4H, price is consolidating around short-term resistance of $250. We could see a small dip to $225 to re-test the local breakout level, perhaps also testing the short-term uptrend that has formed. The major resistance zone in USD, however, is between $360-400. Turning to ETH/BTC, this past week also saw a trendline breakout, though of a shorter-term dowtrend. However, this breakout has occured within a daily bullish orderblock, and there is very little horizontal resistance between here and 0.053 BTC. On the 4H, we can see local resistance at 0.04 BTC, around 10% north of where price currently sits, with recent resistance forming local support levels. There also appears to be somewhat of an ascending triangle breakout above 0.035 BTC, though it’s a little abstract.


Stratis:

Price: $1.54 (0.000231555 BTC)

Market Cap: $152.974mn (22,930 BTC)

Thoughts: STRAT/BTC remains within the range illustrated in my first Market Outlook post, with bullish market structure being formed on the 4H. Range resistance is around 24k satoshis, and it would take a sustained period of price-action above this level before I believe the 29k-satoshi local top can be tested and broken above. This would be the Disbelief level that would indicate a new market cycle beginning. However, whilst we remain within this range, I’m buying. The closer to 20k satoshis I can get my average entry, the better. It has now been 6 weeks within this range, and I wouldn’t expect too many more range-bound weeks.


ALQO:

Price: $0.20 (2951 satoshis)

Market Cap: $11.25mn (1,664 BTC)

Thoughts: A new coin for the Market Outlook series, and one that I tweeted about earlier in the week. ALQO has surprisingly immaculate market structure for a low-to-mid-cap coin. I won’t get into its fundamentals here, but the chart alone is worthy of at least some consideration. Price has remained below trendline resistance since May, but broke out of said resistance earlier this month, on increasing (though still low) volume. Since then, support-turned-resistance at ~2400 satoshis has once again become a level of support, with a heavy resistance zone ahead between 4000-5000 satoshis. I believe a new market cycle has begun for ALQO; a belief that will be confirmed if price can sustain a move above this resistance zone, into Disbelief. I expect the 2400-satoshi level to become a local bottom.

And that wraps up our third Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it insightful. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.


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4 thoughts on “Market Outlook #3”

  1. Hi Nik!
    Following a little the investment method of your book. In AlQO, what is the right place to build our position? The support zone aprox 24.000 sat or it would have been better to do it before…

    Thanks you

    1. Of course, it would have been best to begin accumulation within the range below 2400 satoshis, but price-action indicates that the 2400 level will be a new support level, so buying around there seems a good idea for anyone not yet in a position.

  2. Thanks Nik !

    I’ve heard several stock traders saying that they have never seen someone knocking 5 times at a door (6k) without eventually getting in. And that if BTC holds that would be an absolute exception.

    I love to listen to veterans because those are the same warning us that 20k would pop.

    So I’m. It sure what to think at this point.

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