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Market Outlook #29 (31st March 2019)
Afternoon, and welcome to the 29th Market Outlook.
In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Litecoin and discussing a low-risk, high-reward opportunity spotted in XEL.
Bitcoin:
Price: $4160
Market Cap: $73.297bn
Thoughts: As anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, this week brought a continuation of bullish momentum, with price taking out the highs formed mid-March at $4170. With these highs swept, price began to consolidate a little, turning prior short-term resistance into support at ~$4100.
We remain at the very top of the longer-term range, however, and thus caution must be urged to those getting a little too bullish; until price closes on the higher timeframes and on significant volume above $4500, there is no reason to believe the range resistance won’t hold. As such, I expect price to continue moving upwards to take out the local high at $4280, where many stops will be resting, after which we may find significant overhead resistance that necessitates a move back down towards the $4050 level.
That said, we shall cross that bridge when we get to it, and I believe the following week will be one of further bullish continuation.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
ETH/BTC
Price: $141.56 (0.03457 BTC)
Market Cap: $14.925bn (3,646,596 BTC)
Thoughts: I have provided the Weekly chart for ETH/USD to give some context as to the overhead resistance inching closer, in the form of 15-month trendline resistance. That said, we look set to close the first Weekly candle in the green above the 20-week moving average; something that has not happened since the bear market began in ETH. Declining volume does suggest we may experience a brief drop off as that trendline resistance is approached, and this lines up with my expectations for ETH/BTC.
Looking at the ETH/BTC 4H chart, we can see that price is very much still range-bound, but the recent uptrend remains intact and there is a clear divergence in the RSI, indicating underlying strength in the market. I expect price to make another attempt at 0.0352 BTC this coming week, followed by a rejection, with price falling back to the trendline before finally making a move above the short-term resistance. Ultimately, I expect to see a breakout above range resistance at 0.036 BTC in April.
Monero:
XMR/BTC
Price: $53.50 (0.01307 BTC)
Market Cap: $903.56mn (220,789 BTC)
Thoughts: 106 days into accumulation… partial profits from outside trades continuing to be cycled into Monero inside this range.
Litecoin:
LTC/USD
LTC/BTC
Price: $60.59 (0.0148 BTC)
Market Cap: $3.703bn (904,948 BTC)
Thoughts: So, I’ve provided a potential fractal for LTC/USD on the Weekly chart, though I do doubt that the duration of the consolidation (if this plays out) will be anywhere near the length of the previous cycle. Looking at the chart, we can see the similarities in price-action, most importantly with price experiencing a similar follow-through in momentum following the close above the Weekly 20MA.
Now, looking at the LTC/BTC chart, unlike most other alts, it seems to me that Litecoin is running out of steam, having initially led the charge forward and doubled in price since December. RSI is showing bearish divergences and volume is declining at a significant area of prior support now turned resistance. I am expecting a move back toward 0.0125 BTC before any further upside.
XEL:
XEL/BTC
Price: $0.03 (785 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.944mn (719 BTC)
Thoughts: Given the slowly shifting sentiment and reversion to bullish market structure on alts, I am becoming more and more open to taking positions purely based on technicals (as I showed with the ADT position I opened following Market Outlook #27)
Similarly, here I have spotted a high-reward, low-risk opportunity in XEL, cemented by the recent volume spike that saw almost a quarter of its supply traded inside a day, indicating significant interest. I am buying below 800 satoshis, with a soft stop-loss on a Daily close below 675 satoshis, with a target of 1500 satoshis. This is a ~6:1 reward-to-risk trade.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.
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