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Market Outlook #27 (17th March 2019)
Welcome to the 27th Market Outlook; and what a week we’ve had. Across-the-board, we’ve seen continuations of bullish reversals, along with some periods of relief for altcoins that have already moved above and beyond their accumulation ranges. Critically, however, we have seen the market as a whole break above the 15-month downtrend that has been capping prices since January 2018, as can be seen from the chart printed below:
Despite the steadily rising volume and the breakout above trendline resistance, it is important to remember that we remain range-bound for the time being, until Total Market Cap closes above ~$145bn. Further, we still have half a day to go before we can look at the Weekly chart to see if we’ve closed above trendline resistance on that timeframe; for now, the Daily does look bullish for the market, overall.
Now, today’s post will be a little longer than usual, as I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Dash and Ubiq and breaking down the opportunity present in adToken.
It’s a lot to get through, so let’s crack on:
Market Cap: $70.937bn
Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that BTC would need to break above $4050 on high volume to confirm a return to bullish market structure on the 4H, as well as an indication that a retest of the local high at ~$4300 was imminent.
This past week, we saw a bullish continuation of the momentum from the previous week on significant volume, with prior resistance now at $4070 now looking like support. Trendline support remains intact on the 4H, as does the 200MA acting as support as price continues to trend upwards.
That said, it is important to remember the range we remain within, which is why I’ve provided the Daily chart. Until we get a Daily close above $4400 on solid volume, it is wise to assume the range will remain in play, and thus there may be significant overhead resistance this coming week. I do believe we’ll retest the $4300 high from last month over the next few days; whether we close above it is not something I’m all too certain on. Perhaps we’ll need to consolidate around that high for a while before breaking above it with any serious momentum…
Price: $140.28 (0.0348 BTC)
Market Cap: $14.767bn (3,672,639 BTC)
Thoughts: Looking at the Weekly chart for ETH/USD, we can see that price is breaking above the 20-week moving average for the first time since February 2018. Price rejected a move above it a couple of weeks ago, but now looks set to close above it. We can also see from the period prior to 2017 on the chart that a Weekly close above the 20MA preceded the subsequent 12-month bull run.
Looking now at ETH/BTC, the successful retest of the 200-day moving average has been completed, with price now looking to break above 15-month trendline resistance. A higher timeframe close above this trendline would indicate to me that the local high (and support turned resistance) around 0.042 BTC will be retested and likely broken above. However, looking at the 4H, price remains range-bound between 0.034 and 0.036 BTC, recently rejecting a move above the 200MA. That being said, I expect a reclamation of 0.0352 BTC on the 4H early this coming week, with bullish continuation towards range resistance by the Weekly close.
Price: $53.26 (0.1325 BTC)
Market Cap: $897.888mn (223,360 BTC)
Thoughts: We are now 3 months into range-bound accumulation for Monero, but this past week saw higher 24H volume than any during this period. Short-term support has formed at 0.0125 BTC but price remains capped by range resistance at 0.0136 BTC.
Price: $91.26 (0.0226 BTC)
Market Cap: $793.292mn (197,784 BTC)
Thoughts: A few weeks ago, I broke down Dash’s price-history in a Market Outlook, mentioning that it seemed to be setting up for a bullish reversal, similar to Litecoin’s. This past week, we saw Dash break out of its consolidation on significant volume, but price remains capped by the 200-day moving average. The last couple of days have seen price pull back on low volume, and I’d expect this pullback to be followed by a break above the Daily 200MA towards an area of support turned resistance at 0.025 BTC.
Price: $0.25 (6215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $10.621mn (2,648 BTC)
Thoughts: Ubiq looks set to close the Weekly above trendline resistance for the first time in 15 months, having already broken above this key resistance on the Daily with significant volume. Price has reclaimed prior support at 5000 satoshis (an important psychological figure) but remains capped, as is the case by many altcoins at the moment, by the Daily 200MA. A close above this level would open up a move towards long-term resistance at 10,000 satoshis – another important psychological figure.
Price: $0.007 (173 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.16mn (1,035 BTC)
Thoughts: Whilst combing through charts this past week, I spotted this beauty. I have no idea about the fundamentals of adToken, but there is clearly significant interest at current prices and those prices happen to be near all-time lows. With the changing tide in the market at the moment, I have decided to take my first solely TA-based position in many, many months.
From the ADT/BTC Weekly chart, we can see that price is range-bound between its all-time low at ~130 satoshis and range resistance at ~260 satoshis. This range preceded the move towards 2400 satoshis in January 2018.
Now, looking at the Daily, we can see that the range has been in play for 214 days, which is insane. There have been frequent buy-ups during that time. Regarding a trade, I have entered at current prices, with a soft stop on a Daily close below 120 satoshis and a first target of ~550 satoshis. Let’s see how this one plays out…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. If you’ve found some value in the read, please do share it on Twitter etc. and feel free to leave any comments or questions below!
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