Market Outlook #261 (27th March 2024)
Hello and welcome to the 261st instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Synthetix, Mina, Kusama. Perpetual Protocol and Litentry.
This post, I’m looking at Binance-listed alts that have had near two-year accumulation ranges that are only just breaking out. We’ve had months of on-chain mania, but nothing really happening on CEXes, and I think we’re on the cusp of things heating up for traditional retail, which means centralised exchanges. It also means less fees for us…
Next week, we’ll be doing a quarterly review and looking at broader market views.
As ever, if you have any requests for next week, please do let me know via email or in the comments.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price:
Market Cap:
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly, we can see that the parabola is still very much intact for now and that last week saw demand step in at $61k, pushing price all the way back towards the weekly open, where the pair closed out at $67.2k. This week’s early price-action has seen consolidation right around prior cycle highs at $69k, with BTC rallying off the weekly open through $69k into $71.6k before finding resistance and now sitting just above that key level which has capped the weekly closes for the past three weeks. From here, given the strength of the buyback late last week after pushing low into the 60s, I would expect continuation higher whilst the parabola holds, with any weekly close above $69k being the signal for price discovery, in my view. If we get that acceptance above $69k going into the end of the month and the quarter, I think April is super bullish for BTC. Obviously if we continue to reject at $69k, the more likely it becomes that we lose momentum here and break the parabola, leading to a longer period of consolidation before continuation higher.
If we drop into the daily, we can see the three scenarios I marked out last week, with price following an even sharper path than the more bullish trajectory but basically mapping it out with that higher low followed by continuation through prior cycle highs. On this timeframe, we did close back above $69k a couple of days ago and consolidated above it yesterday; I would now like to see a wick below that level that leads to another close above $60k, confirming it as support, from which point I would be looking to $77k followed by the 1.618 extension of this range into $86.7k. Now, the bearish scenario would be for another rejection up here, having closed above $69k after the higher-low, which leads to $69k becoming resistance once again over the next couple of days. In that event, we could expect to see another run at $61k in the subsequent week or two before playing out that more shallow continuation pattern that protects the parabola into late April. As we will see in the quarterly review next week, as long as we’re closing out March above $61k it all looks pretty great for the next quarter.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price:
Market Cap:
Thoughts: If we look at ETH/USD on the weekly, we can see that the pair followed BTC higher after the dump last week, bottoming out at $3057 before closing the week at $3454. Weekly RSI reset and is now in a nice spot for continuation higher. Early price-action this week has seen rejection around prior support turned resistance at $3580 and it is key we now close back above this level: reject and move to fresh weekly lows below $3400 and I think we take another stab at $3000 before bottoming. Conversely, hold above $3600 going into April and I think that month sees the march to all-time highs. Dropping into the daily, we can see the more bullish pattern playing out here with that higher low above $3284, and so from here we need to see price protect that level on any flush lower intraweek and then close through $3580 going into the end of the week, where I would then expect $3725 to become reclaimed support and lead to fresh yearly highs through $4117 in early April. If we reject here and close below $3284, that would look very much like a lower-high and soon-to-be lower-low, with $3057 becoming an easy sweep from there, which would make that longer consolidation into summer look highly probable before the run at new highs begins.
Turning to ETH/BTC, there is very little change here at present, as last week saw continued consolidation below the 360wMA as support turned resistance and support at 0.051, on which the pair is sat right now. If we close this week below this multi-month support level, I would expect another leg lower to begin for the pair through 0.049 into 0.046 in April, potentially acting as a spring, much like the May/June 2022 low formation. Until we get a weekly close through 0.06, there is nothing but continued chop to expect for this. Briefly turning to the daily, we can see how support became resistance at 0.0533 last week and price retraced the entire push off 0.051 support, indicating that this next test is unlikely to be fruitful. Close the daily below 0.051 and retest it from below as resistance and I think 0.046 is all but guaranteed from there.
Dogecoin:
DOGE/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
DOGE/BTC
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Daily:
Price:
Market Cap:
Thoughts: Beginning with DOGE/USD, on the weekly we can see that price has emerged from a near-two-year range here, having been capped by $0.12 since the breakdown in May 2022 except for one brief fake out. This also aligned with the 200wMA on the last few attempts, but last month the pair broke through $0.12, pushing into $0.15, where it closed, confirming the breakout. Since, the pair has held above the range for four week, wicking last week towards the range resistance and 200wMA but front-running it as support and closing at weekly highs around $0.177. We are now consolidating right below support turned resistance at $0.19 and the 23.6% fib of the bear market – the first major resistance level since breaking out. Given the structure here, I am expecting to see a weekly close through $0.19 in April that leads to a push towards the next major level at $0.33, which aligns with the 38.2% fib. Momentum indicators are also pointing up. Looking at the daily, we can see that RSI reset to the mid-range on the most recent dump, with DOGE v-reversing the entire sell-off to consolidating at yearly highs. If we do accept above $0.19, the 1.618 extension of the current uptrend also sits right around that resistance cluster at $0.33, providing more confluence for that level. Let’s see what early April brings…
Turning to DOGE/BTC, we can see that trendline resistance from the April 2021 all-time highs is still capping price, as is the 200wMA at 300 satoshis, below which price is currently sat, but last week saw support found above the 360wMA at 186 and weekly structure hold as bullish. As long as we can now hold above 244, I think we see the next leg break through 300 satoshis and through that trendline, with any weekly close above that cluster of resistance opening up what is likely to be a very sharp reversal, as is always the case with DOGE. If we do accept above 300, I am looking at 480 as the next major level of support turned resistance, but ultimately I would expect this to continue to rocket towards the all-time high at 1290 satoshis in the space of a few months. Again, dropping briefly into the daily, we can see how the 360dMA and 200dMA are now acting as support, with the latter having capped many of the rallies for over a year. We have a higher-low formation at 200 satoshis and the next leg should take us into 340 satoshis as a first target, followed by 480 satoshis.
Synthetix:
SNX/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
SNX/BTC
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Market Cap:
Thoughts: Beginning with SNX/USD, on the weekly we can see that following the weekly structure reverting to bullish on the close through $3.30, price has formed a higher low above prior resistance turned support at $3 and continued higher, marking out the beginnings of an uptrend and a sustained reversal. We are now pushing through support turned resistance at $4.30 – a level that had capped price for almost two years prior. Acceptance above this level will open up the next phases of the market cycle for SNX, with a huge open range from this area into $8.25, with only minor resistance at $5.50. That $8.25 are is also the 1.618 extension of the current trend, as well as the 23.6% retracement of the bear market, so lots of confluence for that area. Lastly, we also have a really tight parabola playing out from the December 2022 bottom, and if it continues to hold we should see acceleration going into summer, with a return to the 50% fib retracement and September 2021 highs at $16 sometime before September this year. Dropping into the daily, we can see how there was some exhaustion on the most recent push into $5.25, and price rejected, reset momentum indicators and v-reversed the entire dump, showcasing strength here. As long as we now hold above $4.30 this week, I think we push through $5.50 and from there it is clear skies towards $8.25.
Turning to SNX/BTC, we can see that the pair has been in a long-term downtrend since the 2020 highs, with a steeper trendline resistance in place since mid-2022, capping the major highs during that time. Recently, the pair also closed below multi-year support at 7500 satoshis, pushing last week into 5400 satoshis and now sat right back up near that multi-year support. Now, this could go one of two ways: either SNX continues to under-perform and the multi-year downtrend persists, or we get a huge signal to jump in. The latter would be the case if we, having closed below support and formed a spring, now reverse and accept back above 7500 turning it into support again. I would consider that the first half of a major reversal signal. From there, we could look to pick up spot with a view to add more on a weekly close above that trendline, likely around 9000 satoshis. Acceptance above that level and I think SNX begins a new bull cycle. If we briefly drop into the daily, I have marked out how this may play out, with 6900 acting as a higher low before the reclaim of 7500 and continuation higher. I will be keeping an eye on this for that setup as it is one of my favoured bottom formations.
Mina:
MINA/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
MINA/BTC
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Daily:
Price:
Market Cap:
Thoughts: Beginning with MINA/USD, we can see from the weekly that price has been consolidating all of this year after a multi-month run late last year, with $1.75 now acting as major resistance, where the 23.6% fib of the bear market also lies. Weekly structure is still bullish here and I would expect to see that higher low at $1 hold firm; we could sweep it and rally off the sweep, or hold this higher-low that is currently in place, but what bulls do not want to see is a weekly close back inside that $1 level that capped MINA since June 2022. If we do sweep it and close back above it, that is a really clean long signal. Looking ahead, I am expecting upside resolution of this consolidation range with a weekly close through $1.80, which will lead to the next leg higher into $2.50 as major support turned resistance. From there, I think we see the mid-range tagged at $3.50, which is major resistance. Dropping into the daily, we can see that daily structure is bearish here with the lower-low on the break below $1.25, but this is just classic chop within a broader range between $1-1.75, to be honest. Until we see acceptance through either side of the range, I wouldn’t be leaping into any levered positions, only looking to hold spot or add to to spot closer to the bottom of the range if you aren’t positioned.
Turning to MINA/BTC, we can see that after that huge run up into 3750 satoshis, price formed a lower high and broke back below major support now reclaimed as resistance at 2275 satoshis, with some trendline resistance forming. We are now sat back around prior resistance turned support at 1750 and the consolidation that preceded the previous run higher. Weekly RSI has been reset and if this market is bullish we should now see the formation of a low above 1595 satoshis that leads to a breakout and close above trendline resistance and 2400 satoshis. If you are waiting on the side-lines, I would look to add some spot in this area and then fill you position on that close back above 2400 satoshis as confirmation of continuation higher. Looking at the daily, we can see that price is consolidating below the 200dMA and 360dMA here, which isn’t the best sign, but we do have trend exhaustion across indicators on this most recent push lower, providing some confluence for a bottom formation. Again, the main thing to pay attention to here is that move through 2400 – when we see that, then we can have confident in continuation higher.
Kusama:
KSM/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
KSM/BTC
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Daily:
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Thoughts: If we begin by looking at KSM/USD, we can see that price has been capped by support turned resistance at $62.70 since June 2022, recently rejecting off it and forming a higher-low above $33.94, with $43.15 acting as support. These higher-lows forming with that multi-year flat resistance overhead makes me think we see a breakout in the coming weeks, with any weekly close through that level opening up a huge range towards $105 as the next resistance, with long-term trendline resistance above that near $160, which would also be the 23.6% fib of the bear market. As long as this now holds above $34, I think the next phase of its market cycle is imminent.
Turning to KSM/BTC, we can see the pair has been trending lower for over 1000 days, forming a bottom at 66k satoshis late last year, rallying through long-term trendline resistance into 130k satoshis before retracing now into 70k satoshis, where bulls want to see the formation of a higher low. As long as 66k is now defended, we should see price push back above 91k in the coming weeks, which would clearly mark out that higher-low formation from which the reversal can emerge going into the summer. Looking briefly at the daily, we can see how sharply the 360dMA and 200dMA were trending lower, with the latter capping rallies, before the pair reversed into the New Year. We have since broken back below both MAs, but this is not uncommon with altcoin cycles, and what we are now looking for is that push back above 91k that should also bring the 200dMA above the 360dMA and mark out the beginning of the bull cycle for the pair. Having looked at the prior cycle bottoms, alts would usually get around 300 days of upside after this crossover.
Perpetual Protocol:
PERP/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
PERP/BTC
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Daily:
Price:
Market Cap:
Thoughts: Beginning with PERP/USD, firstly would like to highlight how similar the bottoming formation here is to SNX/USD, we that multi-year range resistance capping prices, but higher-lows forming the beginnings of a parabola. Price then wicked through range resistance earlier this year, retraced into reclaimed support at $1.04 and held a higher-low, and since rallied through range resistance, now consolidating with it as support for a few weeks. We want to see this parabola hold here and price push off this support over the next week or two through $1.70 into fresh yearly highs beyond $2.25, with $3.60 as the next key resistance above it. Turning to the daily, we can see how we are forming higher-highs and higher-lows after that $1.04 level held as support but there isn’t a huge amount of momentum here, hence the choppier behaviour. I would expect to see more clearly trending price-action above $2. If we do accept above that area, the 1.618 extension of this trend should take us right into that $3.60 level which I have had marked out for months now as a magnet.
Looking at PERP/BTC, what I would like to highlight here is the difference in bottoming formation with SNX/BTC. Rather than the continued downtrend, we flattened out at all-time lows around 1500 satoshis and then turned weekly structure bullish, now holding above key reclaimed support at 1950 satoshis. This is indicative of underlying strength in PERP vs SNX, and should manifest in greater upside when things tick higher. From this area, we should continue to hold 1950 as support and break back above 2600 satoshis from here, beginning the next leg up into 3600 satoshis and beyond. Only once we see a weekly close through 3600 satoshis, however, can we be confident in disbelief becoming hope and the market cycle continuing, with 5900 satoshis the major resistance above that, followed by 8460.
Litentry:
LIT/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
LIT/BTC
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Market Cap:
Thoughts: Finally, if we look at LIT/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the pair had been consolidating for almost two years with $1.40 as range resistance, but a few weeks ago the pair closed through trendline resistance from the all-time high and then through that range resistance, now turning it into support and consolidating below resistance at $1.90. I would expect this breakout to result in continuation through $1.90 which is what the momentum indicators are suggesting here, which would begin Litentry’s first ever bull cycle. Dropping into the daily, we can see how cleanly resistance is being flipped as support here and the current trend should see us extend into $2.20 in the coming weeks, where we would then want to hold above $1.90 as a higher-low before pushing towards $2.90. I will be looking to hold this for the duration of the cycle, however, as it has never experienced a full bull and is easily accessible for retail traders, so I am expecting at least a retest of all-time highs before the cycle peaks.
Turning to LIT/BTC, we can see that unlike the Dollar pair the BTC pair is still below trendline resistance but volatility has completely flattened here with trend exhaustion evident. We have been consolidating between support turned resistance at 2800 satoshis and range support around 2050 satoshis, and I would expect the move through $2 on the Dollar pair to bring with it a breakout beyond trendline resistance and range resistance here, which will give me more confidence in the new cycle beginning for Litentry. Once we’re above 3000 satoshis, I think we begin a parabola with 6200 satoshis as the first major resistance, followed by 12.2k satoshis.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
Great post mate, If possible could you add CSPR and RIO with targets they can reach this cycle next week please.
Absolutely! Included today.
ADA and MATIC please
Will be included today Henry – cheers!