You are currently viewing Market Outlook #256

Market Outlook #256

Market Outlook #256 (19th Feb 2024)

Hello and welcome to the 256th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Uniswap, Injective, Blur, Perpetual Protocol, LooksRare and XDEFI.

As ever, feel free to comment with any requests for next week, or shoot me an email.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Daily:

btcusddaily

Price: $52,375

Market Cap: $1.028trn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD, on the weekly we can see that price had another strong week, rallying off the weekly open through prior resistance at $49k all the way into the weekly close at $52.1k, on growing volume once again, with momentum and structure here continuing to look in favour of continued upside into the monthly close in a week’s time. That said, I would not ruled out a brief retest here of that $49k level to confirm it as resistance turned support, and as long as that level holds on the weekly timeframe I think we see $59k traded sooner rather than later. If bears take control, however, and we see $49k lost, it is likely a local top is in here at the $52.5k area and I would expect that $46k level to be retested as resistance turned support, given it has not been tested since the breakout. Other than that scenario, there is little to be bearish about for BTC until we reach major resistance at $58-59k.

Looking at the daily, we can see that there is no indication that momentum has exhausted as we have pushed beyond $49k, with price now just consolidation around $52k. Wicking below the weekend lows into $49k would make sense, if only to liquidate some overlevered breakout longs, but I think its wise to assume the trend will hold until we approach the major levels overhead, so if you are looking to play downside this week into that area, I would look to hedge in that $48.2-49k range and only look to add to shorts if that level gives way. For those looking to play long, as mentioned a shallow dip through weekend lows towards $49k would be a nice setup, with a hard stop on a daily close below $48k and a target of $53k, followed by $58k. That’s all I’m looking at this week…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Daily:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Daily:

ethbtcdaily

Price: $2921.78 (0.0558 BTC)

Market Cap: $350.972bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that it followed BTC higher last week, rallying off that weekly open through resistance at $2650 into $2900, around which it closed, firmly through resistance on growing volume, with momentum divergence now invalidated. Price is now sat in no man’s land, around the 50% fib of the bear market but with no major resistance all the way into $3500-3600 from here. I am now expecting to see ETH outperform and begin its catch-up leg higher into that 61.8% fib at $3350 and beyond over the coming weeks, as long as the breakout above $2650 holds firm. Any dip back into that level to retest it as support would be a buying opportunity with a view to cut if the weekly closes back inside that level, with a huge range to play this higher. If we drop into the daily, we can see that momentum is strong here as we have pushed through $2650, with no sign of exhaustion just yet. Whilst we could see a brief dip into $2650 to retest the level this week, I expect that downside to be short-lived, with no real resistance at all until $3284, where some historical resistance is sat. Onwards and upwards.

Turning to ETH/BTC, this is where things get interesting, as price found support above 0.051 last week, pushing off that level all the way into the weekly close, right at that 0.0551 level. We are currently sat marginally above this level, but ultimately ETH bulls need to use that momentum this week to hold above that level and reclaim it as support. If we see a weekly close firmly above 0.056 this week, we have a really nice setup, with a higher-low having formed right at that October 2023 level. This makes the move below 0.051 look like a deviation or a somewhat awkwardly-shaped head to an inverse head & shoulders pattern, with the 200wMA as the breakout level. If we can hold above 0.0551, I think the 200wMA and long-term trendline breakout is imminent, from which point we have a significant reversal underway for the pair. Dropping into the daily, we can see how daily structure is beginning to look more promising, with any close through 0.056 turning structure bullish this week. I think as long as we now don’t move below 0.0533 early this week we’re looking good for further upside next week, with 0.058 the key resistance to break. You can do it ETH…


Uniswap:

UNI/USD

Weekly:

uniusdweekly

Daily:

uniusddaily

UNI/BTC

Weekly:

unibtcweekly

Daily:

unibtcdaily

Price: $7.73 (14.751 satoshis)

Market Cap: $5.831bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at UNI/USD, we can see from the weekly that price formed a higher-low above $5.60, finding support there for multiple weeks before rallying through $7.50 resistance last week. We have bullish structure on the weekly, as well as strong momentum, and I would expect continuation higher from here into $8.80, where price may find some resistance. Close the weekly firmly through $9 and I think we begin an ascent towards the 23.6% fib of the bear market and prior support turned resistance around $13-14. Dropping into the daily, we can see the confluence of support at $5.60, with price bouncing above the 200dMA and 360dMA, turning daily structure bullish subsequently. I am looking for a higher-low to form this week above $6.70 and from there price to continue into that $8.80 level either late this week or early next week. No reason to be bearish unless we lose $6.70 here.

Turning to UNI/BTC,  we can see that price has been consolidating tightly below that trendline resistance from the December 2022 highs, having failed a breakout attempt a few months ago. We have a higher-low above 12k satoshis last week, with price holding at 13.1k, and I am expecting a breakout here before March, with any weekly close through 15.4k satoshis confirming this and opening up a cyclical reversal. If we reject here at the trendline again, I wanna see all of this support cleared out through 12k satoshis, wick below and reclaim for a bottom formation – but I really don’t think we’re going to get that opportunity. Dropping into the daily, we can see the 200dMA is also capping price here, having capped all the major highs for the past 6 months except the failed breakout attempt; I fully believe the next attempt will be successful, so turning 15.4k into support is likely the highest probability entry for those still waiting. See you at 26.7k satoshis in a couple of months.


Injective:

INJ/USD

Weekly:

injusdweekly

Daily:

injusddaily

INJ/BTC

Weekly:

injbtcweekly

Daily:

injbtcdaily

Price: $38.12 (72.761 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.362bn

Thoughts: Looking at INJ/USD, on the weekly we can see that price broke fresh all-time highs late last year through $27.80, pushing into $44.89. It has since been range-bound for a couple of months between that prior ATH as range support and $44.89 as range resistance. I think this is re-accumulation above a key level, and any close through $44.89 will lead to the next leg higher, with $55 as a first target, but price likely to push much higher than that if $45 does give way. Price discovery inbound. Obviously, this is invalidated if the pair closes the weekly back below $27.80, which would be indicative of a much deeper retracement underway before the cycle continues (likely also mirroring the broader market in that scenario). Looking briefly at the daily, we can see that daily structure has turned bullish and momentum is ticking higher once again; if the bearish scenario plays out and we lose the prior ATH, look to a retest of the 200dMA above $19 for the next bottom formation – but if the trend persists here, which I expect is much more probable, I think we see new highs next month and price pushing towards $75-80 going into Q2.

Turning now to INJ/BTC, we can see a more classical pull-back following that ATH formation, with the pair sweeping support at 69.6k satoshis last week and closing back above it. If last week’s low holds firm, I think we see continuation higher through 103k satoshis into 117k satoshis as a first target, but the confluence around 160-170k satoshis as the major target for the next leg. For what it’s worth, this pair could pull all the way back into prior all-time highs at 47.2k satoshis and still look bullish as long as that level held, so there is a really nice structure here for the trend to continue for months to come…


Blur:

BLUR/USD

Daily:

blurusd

BLUR/BTC

Daily:

blurbtc

Price: $0.809 (1547 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.149bn

Thoughts: As BLUR has only been trading for under a year, let’s focus here on the Dollar pair.

Looking at BLUR/USD, we can see that price has been experiencing its first bull cycle since the October 2023 bottom, but whilst it had been grinding higher recently it had formed some channel resistance off those November and January highs. Nonetheless, the strength was clear, as BLUR continued to form higher-lows, most recently above $0.57, then pushing through $0.67 and reclaiming it as support. From there, price has rallied through that channel resistance, breaking out into fresh yearly highs at $0.81. As long as $0.75 now holds as resistance turned support, there is no reason to believe we don’t see further upside from here into the 61.8% fib of the bear market at $0.92, where there is also prior support turned resistance. Above that, however, there is no major resistance to the all-time high at $1.40. It should be a fun ride when we enter price discovery for the first time on this pair. Nothing much else to add here for now…


Perpetual Protocol:

PERP/USD

Weekly:

perpusdweekly

Daily:

perpusddaily

PERP/BTC

Weekly:

perpbtcweekly

Daily:

perpbtcdaily

Price: $1.55 (2969 satoshis)

Market Cap: $66.247mn

Thoughts: Beginning with PERP/USD, we can see on the weekly that the pair has formed a higher-low above a key pivot level at $1.03, which had capped the weekly closes for 18 months prior. From this higher-low, the pair has pushed up through resistance at $1.37 this week, around which it is currently sat. If PERP can close the weekly through this level – which as been a triple top during the entire range-bound period – that would mark a significant shift in momentum longer-term, and I would expect outperformance from there and a rapid gap fill into $3.60, which is the next major resistance level and the 1.618 extension of the current trend. If we fail to close above $1.37 this week, I would be looking for another higher-low to form above $1.04 from which point price would make another attempt at this range breakout. Dropping into the daily, we can see how daily structure turned bullish off that bottoming formation but we have yet to close back above $1.37 on this timeframe. I want to see a clean close through that level before we get excited about anything, but the signs are there. Once we close through $1.37, that level should act as major support, given how long it has capped the pair, and from that point we can look at fresh yearly highs through $2.24 into that $3.60 area. Unless we lose $1.04, there is no reason to be short-term bearish on PERP, in my view.

Turning to PERP/BTC, we can see that price formed a higher-low above reclaimed support at 2150 satoshis, and the pair is now pushing back above prior support at 2600 satoshis. Momentum looks great for higher prices, as does structure on the weekly, so as long as we do now closer through 2600 we can expect to see continuation into that major level at 3600 satoshis. Only when we close above that, however, would I get more excited about emerging from the bear market bottom into a real bull cycle for the pair. Above 3600 I think we take out all the wicks at 5900 satoshis, with a huge gap through that level into 8460 satoshis as the first major target – and that isn’t even at the 23.6% fib of the bear market, which is sat above 13.5k satoshis. Plenty of upside to be found here, but still some work to do before the trend shift and momentum really kicks in.


LooksRare:

LOOKS/USD

Daily:

looksusd

LOOKS/BTC

Daily: looksbyc

Price: $0.084 (161 satoshis)

Market Cap: $83.641mn

Thoughts: As both pairs for LOOKS appear virtually identical, let’s focus here on the Dollar pair.

Looking at LOOKS/USD, we can see that price has been holding above reclaimed support at that prior range resistance of $0.068 really well for weeks on end, having retraced off that failed breakout above the 360dMA. The 360dMA is once again capping price, as it squeezes between there and the 200dMA as support. I want to see price move through that 360dMA turning it into support and then from there move back above $0.11, which will mark the beginning of its first bull cycle for me. Above $0.114, I think we see $0.17 traded swiftly, where we are likely to find some resistance. That said, as regular readers will know, I am looking to hold this for the duration of the cycle, given it has never experienced a bull cycle, with that $0.80 the first major target, but $2.60 the main target, as this is not only the 38.2% fib of the bear market but also the original support level from when trading began. A long way to go yet, but just a case of sitting on hands right now if you are already positioned.


XDEFI:

XDEFI/USD

Daily:

xdefiusd

XDEFI/BTC

Daily:

xdefibtc

Price: $0.14 (266 satoshis)

Market Cap: $15.042mn

Thoughts: Again, much like LOOKS, both pairs for XDEFI are looking pretty similar here, so let’s focus on the Dollar pair.

Looking at XDEFI/USD, we can see that price spent the bulk of its existence in a downtrend, bottoming out last August and having since rallied above the 200dMA and 360dMA in November. From there, price pushed on into major support turned resistance at $0.19 and then formed a range below that level but above the 360dMA as range support at $0.095 for the past couple of months. We recently formed a higher-low above that level and price is pushing higher again, but for now we remain range-bound with daily structure bearish until we break through $0.16. Above that level, we likely retest the top of the range at $0.19, but until we see a weekly close through that level I think it is better to assume this consolidation / re-accumulation period persists. When that breakout does occur, however, I think XDEFI gets repriced quickly, with no real resistance all the way into the 23.6% fib of the bear market and prior support at $0.56. I am looking to hold the bulk of my position, however, for that 50% fib level at $1.20, looking to begin scaling out above that either later this year or early next year. I think this one will be a ripper when it emerges from this range…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


Join my mailing list today to receive a free copy of my 13-page ebook, The Definitive Guide To Altcoin Selection, plus receive regular exclusive material I don't publish elsewhere:

Leave a Reply