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Market Outlook #251

Market Outlook #251 (14th January 2024)

Hello, Happy New Year and welcome to the 251st instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Uniswap, Beam, Myro and Automata.

As ever, feel free to comment with any requests for next week, or shoot me an email.






Price: $42,946

Market Cap: $841.599bn

Thoughts: After a busy few weeks culminating in the ETF launch this past week, let’s look at where BTC/USD is now sat:

Beginning with the weekly, we can see that price had spent five weeks consolidating below $45k resistance and above $39.6k, then rallying through resistance this week all the way into the 61.8% fib retracement of the bear market at $49k, before rejecting and breaking back inside $45k. We are now set to close the week marginally above resistance turned support at $42.1k. That said, obviously this is a super ugly weekly close for bulls – we had a multi-week consolidation, then rallied through it during the most high profile news event in recent history, but failed to hold above $45k and returned inside the range. That, along with the fact that we rejected at the 61.8% fib – the area at which we usually see a decent retracement mid-cycle – leads me to believe that the local top has now formed here. Unless we close the weekly above $49k, I am now expecting chop and downside to follow, with the ETH ETF deadlines and the halving now taking precedence as narratives. As such, I am expecting the next 6-8 weeks to be very choppy for BTC/USD, with $45k now continuing to act as range resistance and price likely to retest $39.6k as support in January. If that level then gives way, I am looking at the $36k area for some more support to be found. If we are to get a deeper retracement from here, I am looking at the range between $28k-32k as the lowest we possibly go, aligning with a potential 200wMA retest. I am not personally looking for shorts during this time as I am expecting the price-action to be horrific to trade as the market destroys as many positions as possible prior to the next leg higher (and the all-time high breakout). During this time, I am expecting to see altcoins outperform with a high probability we see alts top before the ETH ETF deadlines come into view.

Turning to the daily, we can see that momentum continues to point to exhaustion on this timeframe but daily structure is technically still bullish – as ugly as it looks. We have a daily close through range resistance followed by a sharp sell-off back into support above trendline support that has held since November. This is the only saving grace I can currently see for continued bullish PA going into next week: if this trendline holds as support and price then rallies back above $45k, we are still technically trending higher and we could expect at least a run of this week’s high, if not continuation higher. Now, that’s the bull scenario, but given the weekly structure, I am leaning more towards a retest of $45k next week as reclaimed resistance followed by a breakdown below trendline support either late next week or early the subsequent week, which would lead to $39.6k getting run and likely price continuing lower given the momentum into $38k as prior resistance. The 200dMA is down at $33k currently (but climbing) and if we lose $38k that is where I am expecting price to capitulate into.

The first wave of rallies is likely behind us – but we have a long way to go in my view before this cycle tops out.












Price: $2543 (0.05923 BTC)

Market Cap: $305.636bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD on the weekly, we can see that price broke out of the multi-week range this past week, rallied through $2425 into $2718 and rejected, but is set to close the week firmly through range resistance on growing volume, with momentum looking supportive for higher prices. Given this resolution of the range – in stark contrast to BTC – and the fact that ETH has been lagging for a while but now has the ETH spot ETF deadline in May as a magnet, I am expecting the pair to begin another leg higher from here towards the 61.8% fib retracement at $3350, catching up with BTC and other market leaders. This assumes we can now hold above $2425 next week as resistance turned support, from which point we could then expect price to push higher rapidly, with no real higher timeframe resistance above $2650 all the way into that $3350 area, except perhaps the 50% fib at $2880. Looking at the daily, we can see how price has held above $2425 firmly since the breakout, chopping around between there and resistance at $2650, with momentum indicators looking like they have bottomed out. Once we see a daily close above $2650, I expect price to begin a multi-week rally into that $3300 area, where it is likely we form a local top, much like BTC appears to have this past week.

Turning now to ETH/BTC, we have quite the ridiculous weekly candle, as is obvious to all. We ran the 2022 lows and reversed sharply off 0.048, erasing months of grinding lower in a single week and printing a huge engulfing candle, back above long-term range support at 0.055 and above the 200wMA at 0.0565. We were capped by multi-year trendline resistance at 0.061, but there is zero doubt that a bottom has formed here, supported by momentum turning higher sharply. I would now expect this momentum to drag the pair through trendline resistance next week, giving little to no pullback for those who were sidelined in BTC or stables an opportunity to jump in without chasing price – I don’t see this now losing 0.055 before that trendline breakout. Once we see that breakout, I think the pair continues to outperform all the way into April, when the halving and the ETH spot ETF decisions come into view. I am looking at a return to the top of the range around 0.082 – around 40% higher from here. This would align nicely with the Dollar pair approaching $3300 and BTC dropping off towards $36-38k. I do not expect the range to give way prior to the retail mania phase of the market cycle. Now, looking at the daily, we can see that price also closed above the 200dMA for the first time in around a year (excluding one small fake-out in June). I would expect this confluence of support between 0.055-0.058 to now act as support this coming week, likely the shallower pull-back over the deeper one, before we see continuation through 0.0622, with the mid-range at 0.068 the primary target after that. As long as we hold above 0.055, I am an ETH bull.












Price: $100.93 (0.002336 BTC)

Market Cap: $43.171bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at SOL/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see firstly that momentum has somewhat reset whilst price remains above key support, which is promising for bulls, with this past week having seen the pair wick below last week’s low into $85 and then rally into resistance at $108, where it rejected and is now consolidating below. There is nothing yet that screams top here to me – rather, we formed a swing-high at a point of confluence and then retraced towards reclaimed support at $82, front-running that level and bouncing. If price can now close next week back above $108, I would consider the local bottom to be in and for the pair to continue higher towards the 50% fib of the bear market at $146, where there is also prior support turned resistance. Dropping into the daily, we can see early signs of promise here as price did sweep the prior weekly low and then rally, formed a higher-low a couple of days later and is now breaking above trendline resistance from the $126 high. As long as this can now begin to find support above $97 again next week, I think this structure looks great for another test of the highs and then continuation beyond that, particularly with daily RSI having been reset. I would not rule out one last sweep of all these lows into $82 followed by a sharp reversal if we get some fuckery early next week, but right now this still looks like its in BTFD mode.

Turning to SOL/BTC,

we can see on the weekly that price rejected at prior resistance and the 61.8% fib around 0.003 and then retraced into the 38.2% fib and reclaimed support at 0.002, above which it held this past week and is now set to close at weekly highs around 0.00237. This definitely just looks like a higher-low within a longer-term uptrend, so I would be expecting continuation going into Feb towards 0.00377, where there is significant resistance. This would also make sense if we are to expect a period of ALT/BTC outperformance from here for the next couple of months. Dropping into the daily, we have already broken trendline resistance and rallied higher, so as long as this can now hold above 0.002 as a higher-low I think we’re due new highs sooner rather than later; below 0.002 we can still drop into 0.0017 and find support above that for this to still look bullish, in my view. Only below that 0.0017 does the trend begin to look weaker.












Price: $0.871 (2029 satoshis)

Market Cap: $8.103bn

Thoughts: Beginning with MATIC/USD, we can see that price wicked below the 200wMA into range support at $0.74 this past week, holding above that level and now set to close back above the MA but slap bang in the middle of the range in which it has been consolidating for months. Nothing has really changed here since late last year: we have range resistance around $1 and range support at $0.74 and price just keeps chopping between the two. Until we see either side of the range give way, you’ve just got to sit on your hands if you’re already positioned. Given how the broader market looks, I am expecting the top of the range to give way and price to begin another leg higher into the $1.30 area, where there is significant confluence for resistance – and that is where I will look to shed my spot MATIC. If we close the weekly below $0.74, I am selling what I have bought within this range, as weekly structure then looks bearish. Dropping briefly into the daily, we can see that price is consolidating above the 200dMA and is currently sat right below prior support turned resistance at $0.92 – flip this level and reclaim it as support and the next leg higher is very much on.

Turning now to MATIC/BTC, we can see that price is still sat on multi year support here that marked the 2022 bottom around 1700 satoshis. Price sold off into that support level last week, rejecting the 200wMA, but has rallied off it this week back above 2000 satoshis. Honestly, this is so choppy it’s hard to have any conviction in a trajectory until we see either 2500 satoshis become support or 1700 satoshis become resistance. If we look at the daily, we can see just how brutal this price-action has been – I really am not looking at anything except those two levels mentioned. If we can flip 2500 as support, I think the pair returns to the 3650 area over the coming months. Below 1700, well… it ain’t looking good.












Price: $6.57 (15,301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.931bn

Thoughts: Beginning with UNI/USD, we can see that price rallied through resistance at $6.73 and at $7.50 before rejecting and returning back below both levels, now consolidating above support at $5.65. Whilst this support holds, it doesn’t look too bad, and I would expect to see another run at a $7.50 breakout shortly. If we do see that and can flip that level as support, that’s a major turning point in my view and I would expect $10 to be ran swiftly. If, however, $5.65 gives way here, it does not look particularly good. In fact, if we drop into the daily we can see how we bounced above the 200dMA and held $5.65 as support but have run into traffic here at reclaim resistance around $6.72. If we can’t clear this level, we have a weaker bounce off the same level of support and I would expect that support to then get swept before any meaningful reversal. Begin to turn $5.65 into resistance and I think we retest $4.75.

Turning to UNI/BTC, we can see that after this past week’s PA, we appear to have formed a double bottom above historical support at 12k satoshis, now set to close the week firmly back above reclaimed support at 14.4k. The primary resistance here is now 17.5k satoshis; above that, things begin to look a lot more promising and a weekly close above 19.4k turns structure bullish off this historical support, which in my opinion would mark a bottom. From there, I am looking at 26.7k satoshis as major resistance to be tested in the coming months. Obviously, if we reject here below 15.4k and turn lower, any weakness around 12k would be concerning as there is zero support below that level into all-time lows at 10k satoshis. We can see from the daily how price faked out above the 200dMA on the last attempt then retraced brutally, so I am expecting the next breakout to be the real one, from which we emerge from disbelief into hope.








Price: $0.0187 (43 satoshis)

Market Cap: $942.613mn

Thoughts: As Beam has only been trading since October, I’ll focus here on BEAM/USD.

Looking at the dollar pair, you can see price was in a strong uptrend for a couple of months, marking out a peak in mid-Dec at $0.027. Since, the pair has been consolidating for several weeks, primarily between resistance at $0.0225 and support at $0.016, wicking below that support into $0.0135 once. Whilst support holds at $0.016, I am considering this a re-accumulation range, where any flip of $0.0225 as support begins the next leg higher in this longer-term trend. I am looking at $0.035 and $0.041 as immediate upside targets. For my part, I am looking to hold my spot BEAM position until marketwide euphoria in alts, so I am less concerned with specific price targets vs sentiment, retail interest, market caps etc. which is likely to still be in late 2024 or early 2025. Nothing much else to add here.








Price: $0.123 (290 satoshis)

Market Cap: $122.571mn

Thoughts: Again, much like Beam, Myro has only been trading since November so I will focus here on the Dollar pair.

Looking at MYRO/USD, we can see that price marked out support around $0.011 (which I have incorrectly annotated as an all-time low – it is not, as this was the resistance level on-chain prior to CEX listings). This support held as price consolidated and chopped higher, then forming a higher-low in December at $0.015 before beginning a monster rally this year, taking the pair into fresh all-time highs yesterday at $0.176. Considering I have held this since the early days of its trading, I have cut a significant portion of my position in the past couple of days at various prices above $0.12. I am holding a moon-bag for the possibility of it joining the unicorn club of billion-dollar memecoins, but I will reinvesting the rest into other spot positions. If you have been holding since November, it’s probably wise to do the same, even if not with a huge chunk of the position. I am now not looking to add but only to exit more as things get more ridiculous.












Price: $0.098 (221 satoshis)

Market Cap: $44.908mn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ATA/USD, we can see on the weekly that price has just about stopped bleeding lower since September and has now been grinding higher, rallying into prior support at $0.14 and rejecting, now retracing into reclaimed support at $0.091, above which it has held this past week. This is exactly where want to see a higher-low form – and where those without spot positions that have been waiting for an entry should consider scaling in. As long as $0.091 now holds as a higher-low, I am expecting the next push through $0.14 to lead to a gap fill into major resistance at $0.22, above which I am looking at trendline resistance from the all-time high & at prior support turned resistance at $0.315. Even then, we are nowhere near the 23.6% fib of the bear market, so there is plenty of upside to be captured with this one. Dropping into the daily, we can see here ow the 200DMA is also currently acting as support, providing confluence for a possible bottom. Daily RSI has fully reset and I am now just looking for a clean flip of the December highs as support to add to my position for that gap fill.

Turning to ATA/BTC, unlike the dollar pair this continues to bleed lower, as it has done for 868 days, now 95.5% off the all-time highs and capped by trendline resistance that whole time. Last week, the pair made fresh all-time lows below support at 221 satoshis, wicking lower again this week into 186 satoshis but looking to close back around that 221 area. This breakdown -> reclaim is a little promising, but this is a perpetual downtrend. Until we break and close through 265 satoshis, turning the trendline into support and weekly structure bullish, I wouldn’t get overly excited. What is nice to see however is trend exhaustion since August. I think when the tables turn, they will turn very fast here.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

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