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Market Outlook #250

Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)

Hello, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Network, TriasLab, Morpheus Network and Cellframe. I will also be providing a year-end update to Altcoin Market Cap.

This is the last Outlook for 2023. Have a great Christmas and a Happy New Year and I’ll see you in 2024.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Daily:

btcusddaily

Price: $40,971

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we can see that price spent last week inside the range of the previous week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the first thing to consider is the possibility of inside week failure, which would form if we take out either last week’s low or its high and then close back inside that weekly range. Given that we sold off from last week’s open into the close back below $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly range low (and the broader market outlook), I lean towards the likelihood of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k before closing back above it. In that scenario, we would expect last week’s high to get taken out out and price to likely continue to squeeze beyond $45k, with $48.2k as major resistance beyond that. If, however, price closes the week below $40.3k, this scenario is invalidated and I would expect a deeper pullback from there towards $38k as untested prior resistance.

Dropping into the daily, we can see that daily structure is now bearish, given the break and close below the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; however, that wasn’t much of a swing point, so whilst this is technically bearish structure I am not particularly convinced by it as of yet. If we were to now close the daily through $40k, that looks much more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the major level below that if we are to take out all of those untapped lows along the trendline before bottoming out. However, if we can continue to hold here above $40k (or deviate this low and close back above it), I would look for a push back above $43k before favouring further upside; between those levels I don’t have much of a bias. Close back above $43k and I do think we continue to push higher into $48k…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Daily:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Daily:

ethbtcdaily

Price: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price retraced all of the gains of the prior weekly expansion last week, selling off from the open back into reclaimed support at $2172. Price wicked below the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as support, with the pair closing back above $2172. Honestly, this is very much giving mixed signals: we have erasure of the previous week’s gains following expansion beyond yearly highs, but we have a sweep of the weekly low into major support too. Basically, chop continues. What I am looking at here is where we can continue to hold above $2172 this week; close above it after sweeping last week’s low and I think we have the makings of a bottom before another run at $2425. If, however, we close the week below $2137, I think we’re likely to see $1850 taken out before a bottom is found. Looking at the daily, we can see how daily structure looks set to turn bearish here if we do break and close below $2137, and if that is confirmed we can expect $2036 to be tested later this week, but with much more support down around $1850. However, as mentioned earlier, sweep this area of prior resistance and then climb back above $2172 later this week and I think shorts get trapped and we squeeze back towards yearly highs.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we can see that price continues to chop around between support at 0.051 and resistance around 0.055. There is little else to be added here given the narrative has been the same inside this range for weeks now. When we break and close either side of the range, I wouldn’t be quick to fade it.


Casper Network:

CSPR/USD

Daily:

csprusd

CSPR/BTC

Daily:

csprbtc

Price: $0.038 (92 satoshis)

Thoughts: Given that both pairs look virtually identical here for CSPR, let’s focus on the Dollar pair.

Looking at CSPR/USD, we can see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this point, with much of that being spent above $0.025 and below $0.055, except for a brief fakeout beyond that range resistance earlier this year. We have bullish structure here on the daily but have sold off from prior support up near the top of the range, with price now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as support. As long as we now hold above reclaimed support at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I would expect to see another push at the range resistance from here up near $0.055. If this is a project you are interested in (reader request, FYI), I would consider this as good an entry as any given that your invalidation here could be as tight at $0.031; closing below that would invalidate all of this recent structure and we’d likely return towards the bottom of the range from there. Looking ahead, the disbelief phase is obvious – close above $0.073 and I think this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as major resistance beyond that.


TriasLab:

TRIAS/USD

Daily:

triasusd

TRIAS/BTC

Daily:

triasbtc

Price: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)

Thoughts: Again, given how similar these pairs look here, let’s focus on the Dollar pair, as the structure is also a little cleaner.

Looking at TRIAS/USD, we can see that price was in a long period of expansion off the bottom before spending much of 2023 in consolidation below $4.15, faking out above that level once. This long consolidation range led to price winding tighter with the 360dMA acting as support and price then reclaiming the 200dMA as support in October. Since, the pair has rallied towards $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that level and most recently broken out sharply beyond that resistance, breaking fresh yearly highs through $5. Given this market structure, I would absolutely not be fading this, instead considering this likely the beginning of the next major leg higher for TRIAS. If we can now hold above $4.15, I would expect $6.40 to give way and price to make its way towards trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up near $12 before the next local top forms.


Morpheus Network:

MNW/USD

Weekly:

mnwusdweekly

Daily:

mnwusddaily

MNW/BTC

Weekly:

mnwbtcweekly

Daily:

mnwbtcdaily

Price: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at MNW/USD on the weekly, we can see that price continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected below the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior support ~$1.46. We are currently finding support above $0.94, as has been the case since late last year, but to be honest this is not a particularly attractive long-term chart at present. We have price finding support above the 200wMA in Nov last year, then rallying to fresh yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, but then rejecting, erasing the gains back into the 200wMA and then rallying much more weakly off that same support into the trendline. If that $0.94 support goes, this pair returns to bearish structure on the weekly, so that’s currently your most important level. Until it gets a weekly close through that trendline and back above $1.50, I wouldn’t be interested in this to be honest – much better opportunities in the market.

Looking at MNW/BTC, we can see that the pair is very much still in a bear cycle at present, with fresh lows on the most recent break and close below 3264 satoshis. Price is now sat in no man’s land, with major support below near 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 level. There is also no sign just yet of trend exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I feel like given how recently this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), it will be a while yet before this one fully bottoms out; whilst most of its price capitulation appears to have occurred, we may need to see a period of flat consolidation before another cycle can begin for MNW.


Cellframe:

CELL/USD

Daily:

cellusd

CELL/BTC

Daily:

cellbtc

Price: $0.19 (475 satoshis)

Thoughts: Again, much like a couple of other tokens in this post, CELL’s pairs look very similar here and I am focusing on the Dollar pair, as that is also what I am basing my long-term position on.

So, looking at CELL/USD, we can see that price has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed support above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We remain capped by the long-term trendline resistance, but following the multi-year downtrend we have been consolidating above all-time lows and below $0.37 since mid-2022. I am very much still in my spot position here and if I was not fully allocated I would be buying some within this range. Invalidation would be fresh all-time lows, where I would cut and wait for a reclaim or a new range formation. But given the broader market conditions I think we are more likely to continue chopping around here and then start reversing sharply when ETH starts outperforming. Above $0.37 the first bull cycle begins…


Altcoin Market Cap:

ALT/USD

Weekly:

total3usd

ALT/BTC

Weekly:

total3btc

Market Cap: $441.2bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ALT/USD, we can see that the altcoin market has emerged finally after over 500 days of being range-bound, recently rallying back through the 200wMA, consolidating above it as support and then pushing through multi-year resistance at $413bn. We have pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating within the prior weekly range. I would expect to see further consolidation here after the multi-week rally, but there is nothing bearish about this on the higher timeframes. As long as we can now hold above that $400bn area, I would expect the next squeeze to open up a much broader range, where things will get very interesting: above $480bn, there is no resistance for alts back into the 38.2% fib and prior support near $590bn – over 25% higher from here. That’s where I would expect more resistance to be found for alts and perhaps a broader market correction. Disbelief is becoming hope.

Looking at ALT/BTC, we can see that despite some gains in Dollar values of alts – and massive gains on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we have largely been trending lower against BTC for over a year. Most recently, alts wicked below support at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with trend exhaustion now appearing on this timeframe. We also saw the market close above trendline resistance, marginally – this is all indicative of a period of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Dollar valuation of the altcoin market. If we can reclaim 11.4mn as support here, I think that will be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year range support up near 13.3mn BTC.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the final one of 2023!

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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This Post Has 3 Comments

  1. Vincent Albanese

    When will Market Outlook recommence in 2024?

  2. Scott Hipkin

    Thank you for this great post and all the work you have done this year, enjoy your Christmas mate and see you in the new year ????

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