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Market Outlook #25 (3rd March 2019)
Good afternoon, and welcome to the 25th Market Outlook. A violent end to last week has led to some interesting changes in market structure across-the-board, though much remains looking positive for at least this month.
In today’s post, I’ll take a look at the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as LBRY Credits, which I believe may be offering a low-risk, high-reward opportunity at present.
Market Cap: $67.972bn
Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that Bitcoin was coming into multiple levels of significant resistance and that we might falter back toward the trendline support that had formed. Sunday night brought a violent dump and with it a break in market structure to the downside. This took price further than I had expected, but it remains supported by the prior area of resistance around $3780.
Nonetheless, the break in market structure cannot be ignored, and price remains bearish short-term – perhaps culminating in another test of the $3780 support – unless we see a 4H close above $3990. This would be a reclamation of bullish market structure, opening up the possibility for price to retest the macro range resistance above $4300.
I did like the strong and fast initial rejection from $3780 a couple of days ago, but there was no follow-through…
This is, in essence, no man’s land, with no clear direction whilst critical support holds firm but 4H market structure remains bearish.
Price: $135.08 (0.035 BTC)
Market Cap: $14.196bn (3,678,624 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum has dropped off from the high it formed last week, now looking at retesting the Daily 200MA. Declining volume on this pullback indicates that this is simply relief prior to another leg up. If the 200MA gives way despite price breaking above it for the first time in many months, this would suggest that the trendline support that has formed would likely also give way. I expect this will not be the case, and I remain bullish mid-term, targeting 0.05 BTC over the coming months.
Price: $48.96 (0.01292 BTC)
Market Cap: $839.218mn (217,610 BTC)
Thoughts: Well, what do you know – Monero remains range-bound for another week. Today, I’ve provided the duration of the range, which is currently over 11 weeks. That is an extensive accumulation period, all of which has occured with continued high volume. Very bullish on a breakout and new bull cycle beginning sooner rather than later…
Price: $0.02 (630 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.235mn (1,359 BTC)
Thoughts: LBRY Credits suffered a more dramatic decline than the rest of the market, falling ~94% from its January 2018 highs but over 98% from its summer 2017 highs. This is undoubtedly due to the inflation rate during this period. However, price has now formed a strong base above 500 satoshis, with high volume buyups occurring on numerous occasions, but price remaining capped by the Daily 200MA. Support at ~620 satoshis has been reclaimed after falling in winter 2017, and entries here have ~25% downside risk, with soft stop-losses on a Daily close below 480 satoshis. An upside target of the resistance at ~1500 satoshis offers ~150% reward, making this a 6:1 opportunity.
That concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!
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