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Market Outlook #248

Market Outlook #248 (3rd December 2023)

Hello, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Network, Amp and Unibot.

As ever, if you have any requests for next week, send them across.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Daily:

btcusddaily

Price: $39,449

Market Cap: $771.620bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price is set to close the week at fresh yearly highs, as well as highs of the week, on similar volume to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into support turned resistance here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for higher prices, to be honest – momentum still looks strong and we’ve just closed through multi-week resistance. Looking at next week, I would expect this squeeze to continue into $42k, where there is likely to be much more resistance given the confluence. If we do see price push up into that level, I will be looking to hedge some spot exposure and look to remove the hedge when we accept above that level. For downside risk, any wick up above $39.6k towards $42k and subsequent close back inside $39.6k would begin to look like a local top to me, from which point we can start looking for shorts potentially back as far as $33k to clear out all of these recent untapped lows. This is obviously assuming we do get that top formation in the next week or two below $42k. Invalidation on any short exposure is obviously acceptance above $42k, but until we look like a top has formed I would not rush to fade the first weekly close through multi-week consolidation.

Turning to the daily, we can see how momentum had reset and is now curling higher again as price has broken through resistance at $38k and turned it into support on this timeframe, which is super promising for December price-action, in my view. If we can hold above $38k early next week, I would expect price to just keep pushing up with no real resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, however, we deviate above $39.6k early next week and then break and close back inside $38k, that would look like the $42k level is getting front-run and I would become a lot more cautious about long exposure. Not much else to add here whilst structure looks like this…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Daily:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Daily:

ethbtcdaily

Price: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)

Market Cap: $260.285bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ETH/USD, on the weekly we can see that price rallied off resistance turned support at $2037 – a level which price had previously been chopping around for weeks. From the weekly open, price found support at that level and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to close the week right around the prior yearly highs at $2170. This looks very much like the beginning of a breakout from this long-term resistance level for ETH, particularly when we consider how $2037 also acted as very strong resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with price only deviating above that once since May 2022’s capitulation event. This strong push off that level and break of fresh yearly highs indicates a new range expansion, in my view, as I have been awaiting. If we can turn $2170 into support next week I think we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December before any further resistance is found. Obviously, if we wick above $2190 next week, making a fresh yearly high, then reject and close back inside $2170, that would look a little more bearish and we could consider that a deviation has formed. But until that happens, this looks ready for a new range.

Looking at ETH/BTC, again we continue to consolidated above 0.0533 and below the 200wMA at 0.0557, but price is set to close right around that resistance level once again. As I mentioned last week, whilst we are in this tight range, there is little to do, but when we see price either close through 0.0533 and turn that support into resistance or close above 0.0557 and turn the 200wMA into support, then we can look at how to play ETH for the foreseeable future. In the former scenario, naturally we would look to hedge long exposure or open short exposure, in anticipation of downside; in the latter, we are expecting to see the pair rally towards multi-year trendline resistance, therefore outperforming for a period. Simple.


Solana:

SOL/USD

Weekly:

solusdweekly

Daily:

solusddaily

SOL/BTC

Weekly:

solbtcweekly

Daily:

solbtcdaily

Price: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)

Market Cap: $26.953bn

Thoughts: Beginning with SOL/USD, we can see from the weekly that price is finding support above prior resistance at $53.60 and is finding resistance at $62, marginally below where the pair is set to close this week. This range has held for three weeks, with weekly momentum not yet showing any divergence, and whilst we continue to hold above $53.60 I am inclined to expect higher prices from this range. If next week see the pair turn this resistance into support above $64, I think we see another leg higher into that range between $75-82. If, however, we at any point close the weekly below $53.60 in the next couple of weeks, I would expect $48 to be retested below as the last level of support before a much deeper pullback becomes possible towards $36. Dropping into the daily, we can see how momentum has reset now during this consolidation, and if we can start pushing through $64 I would expect momentum to carry this forward once again, with $68 as minor resistance before $75 comes into play. The bearish scenario here next week would be a deviation above $68 followed by rejection and a close back below $61; in that scenario, I would look for intraweek shorts towards $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance through that level, with $48 then the ultimate target for that short. Below $48, you know what happens…

Turning to SOL/BTC, we can see how price is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We have resistance overhead at 0.00162, where price is currently sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% level at 0.00208, where there is also prior support, in my view. So potentially 15-20% more upside from here if this resistance gives way. If we are topping out here, however, next week should see price close back below 0.00137, making it more probable we pull-back into that untested level at 0.00112. If we drop into the daily, we can see how daily structure is turning bullish again after the brief pullback but there is resistance right here that is proving troublesome. I think as long as the pair continues to form these lower timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re likely to see it give way and turn into reclaimed support; from there, I think we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, where there will be much more resistance.


Polygon:

MATIC/USD

Weekly:

maticusdweekly

Daily:

maticusddaily

MATIC/BTC

Weekly:

maticbtcweekly

Daily:

maticbtcdaily

Price: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.547bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at MATIC/USD, we can see from the weekly that price has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and found support this past week, rallying off that level into $0.82, where it is set to close. Weekly structure is bullish but that $1 area has a huge amount of confluence for resistance, and so it is hardly surprising price did not breach it on the first attempt following this rally. What bulls wants to see here is that the pair form a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed support at $0.62 – even if we drop further from here into that level weekly structure would still be intact if we form that higher-low in that area. From there, we would expect another attempt at a $1 breakout, above which there is little resistance into $1.30, where we find confluence of prior support, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the daily, we can see how price is actually forming some decent structure here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed support at $0.74, with daily structure having turned bullish on this most recent push higher. If this structure holds next week and another higher low forms, I don’t think we see that deeper retracement before another attempt at the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…

Turning to MATIC/BTC, we can see that, following weekly structure turning bullish, price rallied through the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing back below that level and retracing now into reclaimed support at 2000 satoshis; a major historical level. If we can form a higher-low in this area, structure looks absolutely fine for continuation higher in the coming weeks. However, close back below 2000 satoshis and this rally feels much less valid, with 1800 satoshi support coming into view for a sweep. Hold here and I think the next leg takes the pair towards 3200 satoshis for the gap fill. Turning to the daily, we can see how price faked out above the 200dMA before rejecting and retraced back inside that long-term value area between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we are seeing support hold here. If we can now reclaim 2100 as support, I would expect to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that leading to the next leg higher into 2950-3230.


Oasis Network:

ROSE/USD

Weekly:

roseusdweekly

Daily:

roseusddaily

ROSE/BTC

Weekly:

rosebtcweekly

Daily:

rosebtcdaily

Price: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)

Market Cap: $428.513mn

Thoughts: Beginning with ROSE/USD, we can see that price continued to rally higher this past week, pushing beyond prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with price set to close the week marginally below that level. We are looking at the pair inches away from a breakout beyond the 2023 highs, with any acceptance next week above $0.088 opening up a new range: above that level, there is zero resistance into $0.116 and I am expecting that range to get filled in swiftly, particularly following a multi-week consolidation below resistance. Obviously, if we deviate above that high next week and start breaking down and closing back below it, the picture looks a little different. For now, this very much looks ready for continuation higher, with $0.18 the primary target beyond $0.116.

Turning to ROSE/BTC, we can see that price is now above reclaimed support at 203, with only prior support at 219 satoshis acting as resistance before a huge range opens up, providing confluence for the Dollar pair. If we can close the weekly firmly above 220 next week, I would expect ROSE to push towards 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance through that level opening up the first major resistance level at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the daily, we can see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, price has flipped range resistance at 203 into support and is now holding that level; close back inside that and we are likely to return to 180 for a retest, but above it I think we continue rallying into 270-280 where there is much more resistance.


Amp:

AMP/USD

Weekly:

ampusdweekly

Daily:

ampusddaily

AMP/BTC

Weekly:

ampbtcweekly

Daily:

ampbtcdaily

Price: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)

Market Cap: $141.301mn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at AMP/USD, we can see that the pair recently formed an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied back above support at $0.0018, now consolidating below prior support turned resistance at $0.003. Whilst this is promising, particularly when looking at momentum indicators, weekly structure is still bearish and the pair is still very much in a downtrend, for the time being. If we now see a higher-low form above $0.0018 and price then rally and accept back above $0.03 – a key historical level – then we can start considering a bottom to be in and for further upside to follow. If that does occur, I would expect the pair to rally off that $0.003 level as support rapidly towards $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this area, however, and $0.0018 does not hold, the downtrend persists and fresh all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the daily, we can see that price is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as support, with the former having capped the last major rally, so acceptance above $0.003 will also give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal becomes much higher probability, in my opinion.

Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very much played out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having completely diminished and price now consolidating in a tight range around all-time lows. If this is a project you feel confident in fundamentally (this is a reader request, and therefore I cannot comment on fundamentals here), this would be exactly where I would be looking to build a spot position to be honest, with a view to add above 16 satoshis. Looking at the daily, we are tightly wound right below the 200dMA also, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it becomes very likely the cyclical bottom has formed, so for those with less risk appetite, awaiting that would be wise.


Unibot:

UNIBOT/USD

Daily:

unibotusd

Price: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)

Market Cap: $63.399mn

Thoughts: Finally, let’s look at a project I have recently bought a spot position in: UNIBOT.

Looking at UNIBOT/USD, we can see the pair has only been trading for a few months and price has played out most of a market cycle at this point, having formed an all-time high at $226 in August and since been trending lower, capitulating into $27.77 in November but largely spending time in a range between support at $43 and resistance at $78. This range has persisted since mid-September and whilst price attempted a breakout a few days ago, this failed and we are now retesting $64 as support; if this level fails, I would expect $51 to be retested as support, where those on the sidelines could also look to build a position with a weekly close below $40 being my invalidation here. I am looking to hold this for a full cycle, expecting fresh highs through $226. Into 2024 we go…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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