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Market Outlook #24 (23rd February 2019)
Hello, hello, and welcome to the 24th Market Outlook, brought to you a day early this week; you lucky devils.
This past week, we have certainly seen the bullish follow-through anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, with the market then taking a little breather as we run into resistance across-the-board. Plenty to discuss, for sure.
In today’s post, I’ll be running through the usuals (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero), as well as taking a look at the current opportunity in Dash.
Bitcoin:
Price: $4047
Market Cap: $71.039bn
Thoughts: I’ve provided a Weekly chart just to re-evaluate where we are on the higher timeframes, as the recent bullish price-action can cause us all to get a little caught up. Nonetheless, we can clearly see that price remains within a Weekly Bullish Orderblock and has yet to close on a higher-high above $44oo. This is what we need to happen in order to confirm a longer-term reversal from this current range, as a close above this level would turn Weekly market structure bullish for the first time since the bear market began; this would also open up a likely retest of the ~$6000 support now turned resistance.
Moving onto the Daily, as expected in last week’s Market Outlook, price recently broke out above the first trendline resistance, closing above it on significant volume. Price has since spent a few days consolidating beneath a number of significant areas of resistance, including further trendline resistance and the double-top at ~$4200. I find it highly unlikely that price will have moved ~20% away from the recent lows ~$3400 to leave these equal highs untouched.
Looking at the 4H, we can clearly see that short-term resistance formed at $4070; a level of prior support from the range that preceded the dramatic dump back in January. Whilst we remain in consolidation at such a critical area of resistance, it is impossible to know whether we will see price falter and fall back to possibly find support where the short-term uptrend meets a level of support turned resistance at ~$3900, or whether this period of consolidation will provide sufficient fuel to simply continue the journey up to take out the equal highs at ~$4200. This will only become clear as price is able to close the 4H above or below the current range on significant volume. Whichever path price takes, I believe we see those highs taken out over the next couple of weeks.
Ethereum:
ETH/BTC
Price: $148.40 (0.0374 BTC)
Market Cap: $15.613bn (3,926,654 BTC)
Thoughts: I have omitted the ETH/USD charts this week, as the pair is simply following BTC/USD. ETH/BTC is where some interesting movement is occuring.
On the Daily, we can see that price closed above the 200MA for the first time since June 2018. Price is now consolidating below the support turned resistance (and the most recent swing-high) at 0.042 BTC. The volume being traded on this upwards momentum suggests to me that it is likely we see this swing-high taken out. In doing so, market structure will be undoubtedly bullish and a move to test prior support at 0.054 BTC wouldn’t be out of reach.
On the 4H, a similar pattern is playing out to that which preceded this past week’s leg up. An ascending triangle has formed, with volume declining during the consolidation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see continuation of the current uptrend next week.
Monero:
XMR/BTC
Price: $52.20 (0.01312 BTC)
Market Cap: $877.547mn (220,644 BTC)
Thoughts: Whilst the temptation does exist to simply omit Monero from the current posts due to its persistence in remaining range-bound, I believe it is useful to watch an accumulation range form and play out over time. Volume remains high whilst price remains in this range, and Monero continues to lag behind the rest of the market. Seems to me like a great buying opportunity…
Dash:
DASH/USD
DASH/BTC
Price: $86.09 (0.02164 BTC)
Market Cap: $744.379mn (187,161 BTC)
Thoughts: Much like the opportunity outlined in another golden-oldie (Litecoin) from a few weeks ago, Dash is now presenting a low-risk, high-reward entry for longer-term investment.
The Weekly chart for DASH/USD shows that price is now in an area that it rarely remains in for any great length of time; beneath the long-term range that remains trending upwards. Further, whilst I tend not to pay much attention to indicators, RSI is at its most oversold in the coin’s entire history. Couple this with the fact that price is inside a Weekly Bullish Orderblock and is kissing trendline resistance from the highs made in January 2018, and you have a high-probability entry.
DASH/BTC on the Weekly timeframe is even more interesting, with price having trade below the triple-top prior resistance that one would have expected to form strong support ~0.026 BTC. Price then also broke below trendline support from August 2014; very bearish, one would think. And yet, following this bearish price-action, we’ve seen a swift reversal from those levels and a breakout above trendline resistance that has been suppressing price since January 2018. Price is currently being capped by the Daily 200MA and support turned resistance at 0.0233 BTC, but if the Weekly can reclaim the lost trendline support and close above 0.026 BTC over the coming weeks, I would be almost certain the cyclical bottom is in for Dash.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll get back to you!
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