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Market Outlook #239

Market Outlook #239 (2nd October 2023)

Hello, and welcome to the 239th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ethereum Name Service, Moonbeam, Hooked Protocol, Perpetual Protocol and Wasder.

As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, do let me know.

Bitcoin:

Monthly:

btcusdmonthly

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Daily:

btcusddaily

Price: $28,238

Market Cap: $547.573bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the monthly timeframe, we can see that last month closed marginally in the green after sweeping the August low and bouncing off reclaimed support around $25.4k. This occurred on slightly lower volume than the previous month, whilst momentum continues to point higher on this timeframe. We still have bullish structure here and have effectively just been range-bound between $25-30k for the best part of the year. We can see that October has got off to a decent start, but it is all about protecting $25k on the monthly timeframe if this long-term range is to lead to expansion to the upside.

Turning to the weekly, we can see that the pair closed last week firmly back above $27k on marginally higher volume than the prior week, printing a bullish engulfing of the previous weekly range. We also very marginally closed back above the 200wMA at ~$28k. That being said, despite the strong push and signs of promise, I would urge caution here as we push up early this week, with huge overhead resistance in this $28.2-28.8k range. If we reject here, I would be looking for $27k to hold as reclaimed support and for the pair to take another crack at that $28.7k level from there; close the weekly above that and I think the trend resumes higher into $32.9k sooner rather than later. Break and close back below $27k on the weekly timeframe and it is likely we do see the bottom of the multi-month range swept and the June and September lows taken out into $24.3k.

Turning finally to the daily, we do see bullish momentum up here with no signs just yet of trend exhaustion on this timeframe, and we have closed firmly through trendline resistance that has capped the highs since July. It goes without saying that $27k is now the most important level to protect for bulls to maintain this momentum, otherwise the breakout candle is invalidated. Higher-low above $27k and the rally persists, moving towards prior support at $29.4k…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Daily:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Daily:

ethbtcdaily

Price: $1716 (0.0606 BTC)

Market Cap: $204.458bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see on the weekly that the pair protected support at $1508 and rallied higher off last week’s open, pushing firmly back above the 200wMA at $1675 and closing the week around $1733. Whilst weekly structure is still bearish, reclaiming both the 200wMA and the June low could be very promising. The goal for bulls now is to defend $1616 on any dip lower; close back below that and no doubt we take out $1508. Dropping into the daily, we can see how daily structure has turned bullish and price is now finding resistance at $1763, and I would expect to see $1664 retested this coming week as support – start to form a higher-low in that range between $1616 and $1664 and we could look for longs towards $1850. Conversely, I am shorting any daily close below $1616 targeting $1508.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we can see that price did bounce last week and closed the week green but price only rallied into prior support turned resistance at 0.062 and has rejected early this week. Now, of course it is very early to be casting judgement on price-action for the weekly timeframe, but right now this looks like a textbook retest and rejection within a downtrend that will lead to fresh lows, with 0.0577 the next level of interest. I would also not here that the 200wMA is now confluent with the bottom of the multi-year range; perhaps 0.055 will be a magnet before we bottom out. If we drop into the daily for some clarity, we can see how sharply we have rejected off that prior support and are set to close back below 0.061, sitting right at 0.0606. This is the last stand for the possibility of reclaimed support of that key range, but it is not looking promising right now. If tomorrow accepts below that level, I would expect to see another leg lower begin towards 0.0577.


Solana:

SOL/USD

Weekly:

solusdweekly

Daily:

solusddaily

SOL/BTC

Weekly:

solbtcweekly

Daily:

solbtcdaily

Price: $24.08 (86,134 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.917bn

Thoughts: Beginning with SOL/USD, we can see that the pair has formed a higher-low on the weekly above $18 and last week rallied higher to confirm continuation of the trend. We pushed through $22.40 into $23.90, where the pair closed out the week, with major support turned resistance overhead at $25.75. This is where longs should get cautious, as it would not be surprising to see some sort of minor pull-back from here to form another higher-low above $20. If we drop into the daily, we can see how the pair is firmly back above the 200dMA and has reclaimed support at $22.40, and I would very much bet interested in getting long between $20.22-$22.42 if we see that pull-back, with a view to add to long exposure on acceptance above $26. Once we clean out that latter level, I think a more sustained period of outperformance begins for SOL, pushing for $48.

Turning to SOL/BTC, we can see mostly clearly that price has closed the weekly above long-term trendline resistance which has capped price since November 2021. Given that we have bullish market structure and now a weekly trendline breakout and rising momentum, this is not something I would look to fade. That said, we are pressing right up against a cluster of resistance here which capped recent highs and I would not be surprised to see the trendline retested as support. If we hold above that 77k area, I think we see the July highs taken out into 0.001, where any weekly close through that resistance opens up a gap fill of the capitulation candle back towards 0.00137…


Ethereum Name Service:

ENS/USD

Daily:

ensusddaily

ENS/BTC

Daily:

ensbtcdaily

Price: $7.93 (28,387 satoshis)

Market Cap: $203.99mn

Thoughts: As both pair for ENS look virtually identical, I will focus here on the Dollar pair.

Looking at ENS/USD, we can see that price has been bottoming out along the all-time low at $7.10 since mid-August, having originally formed the bottom in June. After weeks of consolidation between $7.10 and $8.04, the pair rallied through trendline resistance that has capped the rallies since February, breaking and closing above $8.05. At present, this very much looks like a bottoming formation, with daily structure turning bullish following this breakout and the all-time low being protected. That said, the pair now needs to retain bullish structure and form a higher-low, likely also retesting the trendline as support in the process. If we can hold above that and start to push through $8.60, I think it’s time to look at increasing long exposure for ENS, with $10 the next major resistance. Invalidation is of course new all-time lows, as that should now continue to be protected as structure begins to form above it. Not a lot else to be said for this. Super clean.


Moonbeam:

GLMR/USD

Daily:

glmrusddaily

GLMR/BTC

Daily:

glmrbtcdaily

Price: $0.22 (798 satoshis)

Market Cap: $167.371mn

Thoughts: Both pairs for GLMR – much like ENS – look quite literally identical, and I will focus here on the dollar pair.

Looking at GLMR/USD, the pair has been in a downtrend since inception, printing an all-time high back in January 2022 and making fresh lows regularly since, drawing down 99% since that high into an all-time low at $0.16 in September. This low held firm for a couple of weeks and price rallied rapidly through multiple levels of resistance subsequently, pushing all the way into $0.47, where it found resistance and closed the daily back below the 200dMA, which has capped price over the past week. We now have a strong indication of a bottom in place and daily structure is bullish, but we remain below that 200dMA. I would look to buy GLMR at $0.19 if we dip into that area, with invalidation on fresh lows and looking to add on acceptance above $0.31. This pair has never experienced a bull cycle – and I want to be on board for it. Targets are all above $1. Really nice structure and clean invalidation.


Hooked Protocol:

HOOK/USD

Daily:

hookusddaily

HOOK/BTC

Daily:

hookbtcdaily

Price: $0.87 (3151 satoshis)

Market Cap: $80.560mn

Thoughts: In a string of projects that have only been trading for a relatively short period of time, HOOK is the youngest, and both pairs once again are look super similar, so I will focus my analysis on HOOK/USD.

We can see from the daily chart for the pair that price formed a high during early trading in December 2022 at $3.40, then retraced heavily into $1.08 later that month. That marked out the bottom for a v-reversal into the new year, breaking fresh all-time highs at $.411 in February before forming a complacency shoulder in mid-Feb and trending lower since. The pair has retraced 84% since that all-time high, marking out an all-time low in mid-August at $0.64, then forming support above that low for weeks at $0.72. Since, we have seen a somewhat weak breakout through trendline resistance from the all-time high and price now looking to reclaim the June lows at $0.87 as support. This is starting form nice structure but is still a little tepid. We have a series of higher-highs and lows off that September support but I would like to see the December 2022 low at $1.08 reclaimed as support before getting involved here just for a higher probability that the cyclical lows are in and we are beginning HOOK’s first proper bull cycle. That would be my entry signal for a spot position into 2024, with fresh all-time highs as the major target, followed by bullish price discovery…


Perpetual Protocol:

PERP/USD

Weekly:

perpusdweekly

Daily:

perpusddaily

PERP/BTC

Weekly:

perpbtcweekly

Daily:

perpbtcdaily

Price: $0.63 (2261 satoshis)

Market Cap: $45.602mn

Thoughts: Beginning with PERP/USD, we can see that price rallied off the September bottom above $0.40 support with huge volume, spiking into 2023 resistance at $1.37, before closing the week around resistance at $0.75. That level then capped the highs the subsequent week and the pair has been consolidating between reclaimed support at $0.57 and $0.75. Weekly structure is now firmly bullish following that high volume candle and momentum is pointing towards trend continuation after this consolidation. As long as we now hold above $0.57, I would expect to see another crack at $0.75 follow soon, where a weekly close through that would see another leg higher follow into $1.03 resistance. Ultimately, we are just pushing from a year-long mid-range back towards the top of the range – until we get a weekly close through $1.37, that is all this is. That said, I am very much still holding my long-term spot position in PERP, and my first major target is that gap fill into $3.60 sometime next year…

Turning to PERP/BTC, we can see how the weekly closed through trendline resistance from the all-time high on really good volume, and has since been consolidating above it – holding above this 2100 satoshi area is now vital given the strength of the breakout through the trendline. Bulls want to defend this area as a higher-low and then look to close the weekly above resistance at 2600 to confirm a sustained reversal; above that level, I think we see major resistance at 3600 retested, followed by that 5900 area that has capped price since May 2022. If we start to accept back below 2100, likely we dump a little further into 1940 to retest that level as support as a last stand before returning to the summer range.


Wasder:

WAS/USD

Daily:

wasusd

WAS/BTC

Daily:

wasbtc

Price: $0.0036 (13 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.135mn

Thoughts: I’d like to preface this analysis by mentioning that Wasder was a reader request and it is not a project I had heard of prior to this analysis, so I have no clue about its fundamentals. I am going to look at it strictly from a price perspective – and you should be aware that it is a microcap, so liquidity is likely very low.

Nonetheless, as WAS has only been trading for 18 months, both pairs look very similar and I will focus here on WAS/USD.

Looking at WAS/USD, we can see that the pair formed its all-time high back in May 2022, then retraced into a bottom at $0.007 in June before rallying back towards those highs, rejecting marginally shy of $0.044 in November. The pair then spent several months range-bound between support at $0.016 and resistance at $0.029, before the range gave way in May 2023, and price has been in free fall since, losing the $0.007 support in August and capitulation hard and fast since. The pair spiked lower last week into an all-time low at $0.0027, almost 94% below those May 2022 highs, and we have marginally bounced since. Safe to say, I would not be looking to catch this knife unless the project had exceptional fundamentals – even then, however, this is very much in bearish price discovery at present, and could continue to break lower. Until we see that momentum subside, I would be hesitant to get involved. Remember that price capitulation usually precedes a period of time capitulation, where volatility diminishes and a bottoming range forms. Now, if this is a bear trap, you should see a v-reversal back through prior support at $0.054 very quickly, leaving those who sold the bottom behind and likely leading to more FOMO to re-enter at higher prices; this, in turn, would lead to the June 2022 support being reclaimed at $0.077 – if we see anything like that, you’ve got your invalidation clearly marked out for the next cycle.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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