Market Outlook #23 (17th February 2019)
Welcome to the 23rd Market Outlook. Following last week’s post, we seem to have gotten some decent follow-through in places, alongside some cases of rejection at important levels of resistance. Overall, however, bullish sentiment seems to be picking up across-the-board, and plenty of altcoins have begun their cyclical reversals.
In today’s post, I’ll be working through the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, followed by a couple of altcoins that I believe will follow the trajectory of those like Ark and Vertcoin, which have recently moved 2-3x from their lows in short-term spikes. These, keep in mind, are the beginnings of reversals.
Market Cap: $65.873bn
Thoughts: Bitcoin spent the vast majority of the week consolidating after breaking market structure to the upside last week. Just this morning, it burst out of consolidation, but a breakout is unconfirmed until we get a 4H close above the short-term trendline resistance. If we do see such a breakout, and ideally on more significant volume than at present, I believe we will see BTC approach those equal highs ~$4200 soon after.
Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that price is currently being capped by mid-term trendline resistance, and remains within an important pivot area. Reclaiming this area and breaking out above it on the higher timeframes is what we need to see to confirm another leg up.
Price: $127.93 (0.03498 BTC)
Market Cap: $13.417bn (3,669,555 BTC)
Thoughts: Ethereum continues to look bullish against the Dollar, recently breaking out above 6-month trendline resistance, though not on particularly significant volume. Despite this, it seems as though the move below the $116 support was indeed a fakeout, with price explosively reclaiming levels beyond it since. The 4H actually illuminates the volume profile more clearly, with significant volume occuring on the upwards movements. A 4H close above $132 would make it all but inevitable for price to retest those recent highs (and significant resistance) around $170.
Looking at ETH/BTC, we can see that the local highs at 0.042 BTC were capped by the Daily 200MA, and that price is once again attempting a breakout above the moving average. This is taking place after a significant reversal from the move below 0.0318 BTC, but declining volume on this uptrend is a worry. I’d like to see volume return with a Daily close above the 200MA and above the swing-high at 0.035 BTC to confirm a retest of those highs at 0.042 BTC.
Price: $47.47 (0.01291 BTC)
Market Cap: $797.396mn (216,871 BTC)
Thoughts: Well, what can I say… Monero seems to be the new Litecoin, rock-like in its determination to remain inside the range it has formed. This past week, we saw price attempt a breakout but price quickly returned to the range; Monero is clearly still in accumulation.
Price: $0.80 (21790 satoshis)
Market Cap: $89.737mn (24,374 BTC)
Thoughts: Komodo is perhaps amongst the handful of opportunities at present that encompasses both fundamental and technical strength in abundance. KMD/USD has recently broke out above trendline resistance from January 2018 on high volume, though remains capped by the 200MA.
If we look at the first chart for KMD/BTC, we can also see that, in the past, Komodo has traded below 22.5k satoshis twice, and when that level was reclaimed with a Daily close above it, a new bull cycle began. It is currently at the edge of a third occurrence, and though market conditions are certainly dissimilar to those of the previous two occurrences, this is nonetheless a low-risk, high-reward opportunity. Perhaps we won’t see quite as explosive a bull cycle this time, but, then again, Bitcoin is trading at similar prices to those of the first bull cycle that occured in Komodo.
Price: $0.014 (380 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.098mn (576 BTC)
Thoughts: Having written a Coin Report on MonetaryUnit previously, and knowing it has fundamental qualities that few projects in its market-cap range possess, it is even more pleasing to see a potential triple-bottom forming here.
MUE/BTC has seen numerous high-volume buyups over the past few months, and has refused to trade below 300 satoshis during that time. Buys here with soft stop-losses on a Daily close below 300 seem a good idea to me.
Price: $0.37 (10158 satoshis)
Market Cap: $801,426 (218 BTC)
Thoughts: This is a proper Bittrex low-cap, and one of the shitcoin plays I most like. I know little of its fundamentals but I like that Kore is at historical support, and has experienced several high volume buyups since November. Price is currently range-bound, with 16-month trendline resistance edging closer and closer. Price is also trailing just below the Daily 200MA. For the more risk-averse, waiting for a Daily close above 14k satoshis is likely a good plan, but, as can be seen in the left side of the chart, Kore moves explosively.
That concludes this 23rd Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read. Feel free to leave any questions or comments below and I’ll get back to you!
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