Market Outlook #22 (10th February 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 22nd Market Outlook.

We’ve finally seen some expansive price-action after weeks of consolidation, but we certainly aren’t out of the woods yet. That being said, much of what was expected in last week’s Market Outlook has played out, and we have a number of higher timeframe bullish reversals forming.

In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus I’ll provide an update on the opportunity spotted in Litecoin from last week. I’ll conclude by taking a look at Vertcoin and the interesting movements its seen over the past few days.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3655

Market Cap: $64.078bn

Thoughts: Last week, I mentioned that the progressively decreasing volume on the series of trendline breaks was likely a sign that sellers were running out of steam, but that we’d need to see a high volume breakout and a higher timeframe close above $3600 to confirm a bullish reversal. We got exactly that.

Looking at the Weekly, we haven’t seen price close at a higher-high in well over a year. As such, a Weekly close above the prior swing-high ~$4400 would confirm this reversal on the higher timeframes and open up the doors to a retest of the $6k-level – but that is a long way away…

On the Hourly, we do appear to be bull-flagging, athough I place little faith in patterns on lower timeframes. Either way, I expect a period of consolidation (or perhaps even a small dip) prior to the $3800 being retested. A 4H close above this level would be very bullish for short-term price-action.

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $117.46 (0.03219 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.309bn (3,373,755 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD is trailing very closely beneath the trendline resistance from April 2018. Even more significantly, we have yet to reclaim the ~$170-level; an area of prior support turned key resistance.

That being said, the 4H chart against the Dollar indicates, much like in Bitcoin, that sellers are exhausted in this area, with a high-volume breakout occuring a couple of days ago. This breakout pushed price back above the key support at $116 that was lost only a couple of weeks ago. The next area of resistance is at $135, and a breakout above here would open the doors for new local highs above $170 – and with it, reclamation of a very significant level on the Weekly.

ETH/BTC shows near-perfect symmetry in its price-action to its Dollar pair, although with the 200MA currently capping price. Numerous short-term levels of support were reclaimed after a high-volume spike sent price above 0.0323 BTC. I’m expecting a period of consolidation before further upwards momentum.

Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.04 (0.01315 BTC)

Market Cap: $806.287mn (220,834 BTC)

Thoughts: As has been the case for the past couple of months, Monero is lagging behind, taking things at its own leisurely pace. As such, XMR/BTC remains inside a range and there is nothing new to say about it. Interestingly, however, XMR/USD saw price close the Daily above range resistance at $47.50. I would expect the next move to be a breakout above the range in XMR/BTC, sending price against the Dollar towards that $57 resistance.

Litecoin:

LTC/USD

LTC/BTC

Price: $43.45 (0.0119 BTC)

Market Cap: $2.624bn (718,934 BTC)

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I highlighted the opportunity presenting itself in Litecoin. This past week, we saw that hypothesis confirmed, with an explosive breakout above support turned resistance at 0.01 BTC. This level, as mentioned in the previous post, has usually been the catalyst for historical bull cycles.

Against the Dollar, Litecoin has broken above short-term resistance, now turned support, at $42. It is currently lingering beneath its 200-day MA and above trendline resistance; a likely area for consolidation before further expansion.

I expect 0.0155 BTC to be the next level of resistance, and I would imagine we reach it sooner rather than later…

Vertcoin:

VTC/USD

VTC/BTC

Price: $0.27 (7418 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.050mn (3,570 BTC)

Thoughts: Much like Litecoin last week, Vertcoin is also presenting a high-reward, low-risk opportunity. Against the Dollar, price has been range-bound for the past few months, with range support having formed at the Weekly close of the peak of the previous bull cycle (around $0.20). Volume is also gradually rising…

VTC/BTC on the Weekly shows us that price is currently trading inside the long-term accumulation range. From within this range, price has seen 3 or 4 previous bull cycles.

On the Daily, we can see that the 200MA has price capped at present, despite the recent spike in price and volume. The signs of interest are all there, and this is occuring in confluence with historically-significant prices…

That concludes this 22nd Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. As ever, feel free to leave any questions or comments below!

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