You are currently viewing Market Outlook #209

Market Outlook #209

Market Outlook #209 (1st March 2023)

Hello, and welcome to the 209th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, NEAR Protocol, MultiversX, Arweave, Constellation and Perpetual Protocol.

As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, do let me know.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Daily:

btcusddaily

Price: $23,694

Market Cap: $457.371bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD, we can see from the weekly timeframe that last week saw the pair consolidate primarily within the larger engulfing candle of the previous week, although we marginally wicked above that prior weekly high into $25,290 before rejecting. The pair ultimately closed the week lower, back around $23.6k, having retested $22.5k as support and bounced. At present, this week has been tightly range-bound inside the range of last week, and I am looking to see whether we print an inside week here. If we do remain within last week’s range until Sunday close, we have that inside week formation, and we can then look to play inside week failure, where any wick and close back inside either extremity of the range ($22.5k or $25.3k) would present an opportunity to take out the other end. But, that is a couple of weeks away yet if indeed it does form. If instead we close below $22.5k this week, I’d expect $21.5k to be retested as a major support zone, with any move below that turning weekly structure bearish off a rejection at the 200wMA, which is not so promising for the short-term bulls. Conversely, take another crack at $25.3k and close above it this week and I would expect to see that gap into $28.7k start to get filled in pretty quickly.

Dropping into the daily, we can see that daily structure at present is still bullish but more choppy than it has been, with much of this consolidation occurring around the $23.4k area. If we can start to close back above this level having deviated below it, I would expect $24.3k to give way and for the pair to make another attempt at the 360dMA, now sat around $24.8k. This is a huge cluster of overhead resistance, as we have noted several times of late, and it is unsurprising we’re now seeing a lot of chop around here. The clearest signal for another 15% rally would be a close firmly through $25.3k, in which scenario I’ll be looking to step in as a buyer with invalidation on a close back below $24.3k and looking for $28.5k.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Daily:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Daily:

ethbtcdaily

Price: $1650 (0.06968 BTC)

Market Cap: $202.032bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that price is just consolidating right below resistance around which it has consolidated for a couple of months now, still capped by $1664-$1730 and by trendline resistance from all-time highs, although the latter is set to be traded through (with a whimper, albeit) within the next week or two. As mentioned last week, the ideal scenario for bulls here is for a weekly close through $1730 and trendline resistance to open up another 20% move higher towards $2000 with no real resistance in between those two levels. The bearish scenario would be to wick through all of this resistance and then close back below $1664, making this look like a deviation of the range at historical resistance and thus likely to turn back towards the 200wMA at $1430 – prior cycle highs. Dropping into the daily, much like BTC/USD, this pair is also capped by the 360dMA up here and daily structure is still bullish despite recent chop. We want to see the daily start to close back above $1664 early this week to indicate that another attempt at a breakout is imminent; reject again and I think we do move lower, firstly back into range support at $1510 followed by $1430 if that gives way.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we can see that very little has changed in the past couple of weeks, as price continues to consolidate right around support on the mid-range at 0.0687. As has been the case for weeks, if we see a weekly close below this area of support, I think it is likely we push towards 0.064, followed by 0.0594. Until that occurs though, I am cautiously bullish here as support continues to hold and volatility diminishes.


Tron:

TRX/USD

Weekly:

trxusdweekly

Daily:

trxusddaily

TRX/BTC

Weekly:

trxbtcweekly

Daily:

trxbtcdaily

Price: $0.07 (295 satoshis)

Market Cap: $6.403bn

Thoughts: Let’s begin by looking at TRX/USD, where from the weekly we can see that trendline resistance had been capping price since April 2021, leading to a descending triangle type of pattern with support at $0.045 since June 2021. That $0.045 floor got tested multiple times during that period and ultimately converged with the 200wMA in late 2022, where price then began to rally and has since broken above trendline resistance. Price is now pushing up against resistance at $0.071, having retested the trendline breakout as support, and, after two years of bear market, one is inclined to believe that this is not a false breakout but rather the beginning of the next cycle for Tron. If that is the case, we should now not close back below $0.045, just below where the 200wMA is sat, and thus not break back below that trendline, so I am looking to long dips on Tron moving forwards with that as my hard invalidation. If we start to close above $0.071 here, there is also no resistance for another 25% move higher towards $0.089, so I am very keen to be on board if we do see price accept above. Weekly structure is now bullish and invalidation is exceptionally clean: if we lose $0.045 after breaking above the trendline and turning weekly structure bullish, it is a very long way down to the next major support at $0.0272. Very briefly dropping into the daily, we are also now clear of the 200dMA and 360dMA, which have both flattened out now and are acting as support.

Turning to TRX/BTC, the pair has barely moved since June 2022, having spent that entire period range-bound between 260 satoshis as support and 350 satoshis as resistance. The pair is firmly above the 200wMA and continues to hold above trendline support from the December 2020 lows, and any weekly close above 350 would open up another 30% of upside into resistance at 466, with a huge gap above that into the major historical resistance cluster around 865. Again, invalidation is clear and upside is significant if this starts running.


NEAR Protocol:

NEAR/USD

Weekly:

nearusdweekly

Daily:

nearusddaily

NEAR/BTC

Weekly:

nearbtcweekly

Daily:

nearbtcdaily

Price: $2.31 (9750 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.994bn

Thoughts: If we look firstly at NEAR/USD, we can see that price troughed around $1.22, at a 94% drawdown from the all-time high, and then rallied sharply off that bottom, breaking back above resistance at $1.84 to turn weekly structure bullish and continuing higher to reclaim support at $2.17. Since, price has been range-bound between that level as support and support turned resistance at $2.69. This consolidation range opens up two possibilities: firstly, if we close back below $2.17, I would expect us to retest that initial breakout structure back at $1.84, where I would be keen to look for a long setup for another crack at $2.70. However, if we break out of the top end of the range and accept above it (i.e. we don’t wick through and reject – in which case the former scenario applies), then I’d be looking to buy any dip back into $2.70 as reclaimed support and looking for another 25% of upside into $3.50. Briefly turning to the daily, we can see that the 200dMA continues to cap price up here and so flipping range resistance also has confluence with a 200dMA reclaim, strengthening the likelihood of a sustained reversal from there.

Turning to NEAR/BTC, we can see that price remains capped by trendline resistance from the all-time high and that despite the rally off the bottom in December 2022, weekly structure is still bearish, as price has failed on numerous attempts to close above the swing high at 10.8k satoshis, instead confirming that as range resistance for the past two months of consolidation. We have reclaimed support at 9150 satoshis, which is promising, but for this to really start looking like a dip-buying environment, we would want to see a clean break and close above 12k satoshis now, turning this range resistance into support and clearing out that trendline, from which point I think it is likely NEAR/BTC begins a run towards 21k satoshis – a lot of upside.


MultiversX:

EGLD/USD

Weekly:

egldusdweekly

Daily:

egldusddaily

EGLD/BTC

Weekly:

egldbtcweekly

Daily:

egldbtcdaily

Price: $48.35 (0.00204 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.213bn

Thoughts: Beginning with EGLD/USD, we can see that price has drawn down 94% from the all-time high into the December 2022 support that marked the bottom, from which is has rallied and reclaimed the June 2022 lows as support but found resistance around $50.50 at prior support. This is very much looking like the classical altcoin bottoming structure, with the December sweep of the May low followed by the immediate rally and reclaim looking like a spring for a reversal. If that is to be the case, $36.77 should now act as major support if we do retrace into that level, but the likelihood is that if this is the bottom for the cycle then no one is going to get that clean retest and instead will have to chase this higher from here. If we start to close the weekly back above $50, that is a key sign of a continued reversal from here and I would expect $65 to follow swiftly as the final test of this 266-day range; clear that and we are very much in disbelief territory in my opinion.

Turning to EGLD/BTC, on the weekly timeframe we can see that price has been consolidating around support at 0.002 for the past few months, but we haven’t really confirmed that as a macro higher-low above the May/June 2022 lows just yet. For that, I would want to see this support turned resistance at 0.00227 that has been capping the pair since late last year to be reclaimed as support, from which point I think we do another 25-30% of upside into major resistance around 0.00293. Not much else to add here – very clean.


Arweave:

AR/USD

Daily:

arusd

AR/BTC

Daily:

arbtcdaily

Price: $10.18 (42,991 satoshis)

Market Cap: $340.997mn

Thoughts: As Arweave has only been trading for a little over 18 months, I will focus here on the Dollar pair.

Looking at AR/USD, we have extremely clean cyclical structure here, with the June low having been the all-time low at $7.09 for several months before being swept in late December 2023 into a fresh low at $6.10. This was quickly confirmed as a deviation as price rallied back above the prior ATL in January and continued higher, breaking through trendline resistance from the all-time high off that spring, all the way into the 360dMA where price stalled around $14. Price now consolidating between the 200dMA and reclaimed support at $9.85 and the 360dMA as resistance at $14.10. If we start to break back below the $9.85 level, I would be looking to buy AR at $8.10 with invalidation at fresh all-time lows and looking to hold for the next cycle. However, given that we are currently sat right on the 200dMA and reclaimed support, I am buying a little here with a swift cut on a close back below this level, so downside is extremely limited at the moment but I would hate for this to bottom out right here at key support and me not have filled any. If we do start pushing higher from here, I would look to add on a close through $14 with the same view to hold for a cycle.


Constellation:

DAG/USD

Weekly:

dagusdweekly

Daily:

dagusddaily

DAG/BTC

Weekly:

dagbtcweekly

Daily:

dagbtcdaily

Price: $0.052 (219 satoshis)

Market Cap: $65.667mn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at DAG/USD, we can see from the weekly that price has been capped by trendline resistance following the formation of the all-time high back in September 2021, with price having made fresh lows below the June 2022 capitulation lows in late December at prior resistance turned support around $0.036. We also saw weekly bullish divergence for here and price rallied off the bottom to reclaim the June low as support, now consolidating below trendline resistance and the 200wMA, as well as prior support turned resistance at $0.065. Dropping into the daily, we can see that the 200dMA has also been capping price on numerous attempts throughout this bear market, and so I am keen to see whether we now get an upside push and breakout through both, confirming for me a longer-term reversal. Break and close above $0.065 and I think a retest of that level as support becomes very attractive, with price then likely to make its way towards the August 2022 high at $0.11 as major resistance.

Turning to DAG/BTC, we can see that price has been found support at the 200wMA since May 2022, with it aligning with prior resistance turned support around 200 satoshis. This level continues to hold but price is currently capped by reclaimed resistance and prior support at 290. If we break and close back above this level, there is very little resistance all the way back towards 490 satoshis. Looking at the daily, we can also see that both the 200dMA and 360dMA are capping price at present but that they haven’t offered much by the way of a signal in recent history for reversals. As such, I am keen to just see this 290 level get flipped to confirm bullish structure. On the bearish side, lose 200 and it looks extremely ugly, with no major support all the way back to 75 satoshis, particularly given how long this level has held.


Perpetual Protocol:

PERP/USD

Weekly:

perpusdweekly

Daily:

perpusddaily

PERP/BTC

Weekly:

perpbtcweekly

Daily:

perpbtcdaily

Price: $0.927 (3911 satoshis)

Market Cap: $61.176mn

Thoughts: Beginning with PERP/USD, we can see from the weekly that the rally is starting to manifest properly now, with volume beginning to step in as price pushed into support turned resistance at $1, wicking as far as $1.38 but closing out last week just below $1.03. Structure is bullish and momentum is bullish and I would now look to add on a dip back towards $0.70 if we do see that. If we don’t and price just consolidates below this $1 level, I think the next leg higher sees a push into $1.73 as the final level of resistance before clear skies into $3.60. That $1.73 area will likely be a tough nut to crack on the first attempt given the gap above and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a period of consolidation below it before pop through, but I do think we see $3.60 traded in the first half of this year. Dropping into the daily, we can see that price rejected right at the 360dMA and has now come off, but even daily momentum indicators are continuing to look positive and this just looks like a normal retracement following a strong move higher. We want to see prior resistance at $0.69 now hold as fresh support, but other than that this looks very much like the start of the next cycle to me.

Turning to PERP/BTC, the first thing to note is that we have finally closed firmly through trendline resistance from the all-time high, as well as reclaimed a major support level at 3690 satoshis, all on great volume. Weekly structure is bullish and, if we drop into the daily, the trend also looks healthy here, with rising momentum and clean structure. Price closed marginally above the 360dMA but then rejected below resistance at 5922, which is now a triple top. I would expect the dip to begin to bottom out above a retest of trendline resistance as support, from which point I think we see the next leg higher begin towards 8500 satoshis. Onwards and upwards into Q2…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


Join my mailing list today to receive a free copy of my 13-page ebook, The Definitive Guide To Altcoin Selection, plus receive regular exclusive material I don't publish elsewhere:

Leave a Reply